WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[metenthusiast]

except PAGASA.....they always have late forecasts....They really need to upgrade their equipments....

That is so sad since probably 90% of the Filipino people get their info from PAGASA.

Yup. I wasn't really interested before in these tropical cyclones and like most, I get my news from the local weather bureau. But after tasting Ondoy's (ketsana) wrath, I've decided to make myself well-informed on these matters...

[oaba09]

except PAGASA.....they always have late forecasts....They really need to upgrade their equipments....

That is so sad since probably 90% of the Filipino people get their info from PAGASA.

exactly...the wind speed and other inaccuracies are forgivable but they should NEVER make mistakes when it comes to the typhoon tracks...........This is the reason why I always look at JMA and JTWC as far as typhoon tracks are concerned...Now that I found this forum, there's no reason for me to check PAGASA anymore...

[metenthusiast]

Look at this guys:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=16.00358&lon=130.14404&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=metric&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0

Am I seeing things or does this mean a much southern part hit than forecasted?

[oaba09]

Look at this guys:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=16.00358&lon=130.14404&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=metric&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0

Am I seeing things or does this mean a much southern part hit than forecasted?

that's actually what me and drdavisjr are observing right now....we'll be watching this in the next couple of hours.....

[metenthusiast]

Look at this guys:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=16.00358&lon=130.14404&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=metric&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0

Am I seeing things or does this mean a much southern part hit than forecasted?

that's actually what me and drdavisjr are observing right now....we'll be watching this in the next couple of hours.....

I clicked on the model data (GFS) and tuned to the 72 hour slider. I thought I saw a much more southern hit than the one forecasted. But it beats me, I'm still a novice observer..

[oaba09]

Look at this guys:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=16.00358&lon=130.14404&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=metric&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0

Am I seeing things or does this mean a much southern part hit than forecasted?

that's actually what me and drdavisjr are observing right now....we'll be watching this in the next couple of hours.....

I clicked on the model data (GFS) and tuned to the 72 hour slider. I thought I saw a much more southern hit than the one forecasted. But it beats me, I'm still a novice observer..

For now, I suggest we observe this closely....The typhoon seems to still be moving WNW....Let's wait for it to settle into a W movement...

[drdavisjr]

For now, I suggest we observe this closely....The typhoon seems to still be moving WNW....Let's wait for it to settle into a W movement...

Yes, I agree. It's so easy to comment and react on each new satellite frame (which the very, very latest on looks bad too), maybe we are overreacting..

[metenthusiast]

For now, I suggest we observe this closely....The typhoon seems to still be moving WNW....Let's wait for it to settle into a W movement...

Yes, I agree. It's so easy to comment and react on each new satellite frame (which the very, very latest on looks bad too), maybe we are overreacting..

Yes. Observing is the best course of action for now. We might be overreacting, but for somebody who got hit by a storm head on, unprepared, and left stupefied... well, it's better this way (I mean, reacting )

[drdavisjr]

http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/

Scary, worst-case scenario from this guy is Zambales for the exit of the storm...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[metenthusiast]

http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/

Scary, worst-case scenario from this guy is Zambales for the exit of the storm...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes. I think that was what I saw when I activated the GFS model data on wundermap. On the 72nd hour, it hit much further south than the forecasted track.

Scary indeed...

[drdavisjr]

It will be VERY interesting to see what JTWC says in their next warning.

[oaba09]

It will be VERY interesting to see what JTWC says in their next warning.

what time do they usually release their warnings? is it also every 6 hours like PAGASA?

[drdavisjr]

It will be VERY interesting to see what JTWC says in their next warning.

what time do they usually release their warnings? is it also every 6 hours like PAGASA?

NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//

So, next one is at 900 ZULU and it is 700 ZULU now (I think)

[drdavisjr]

[drdavisjr]

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.8N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.0N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.6N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.8N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 132.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STY 22W HAS STARTED TO TRACK IN A WESTWARD
DIRECTION AND HAS INCREASED TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
EYE HAS DECREASED IN SIZE TO APPROXIMATELY 20 NM FROM 30 NM AT
182330Z. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS MOVED
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF LUPIT, A DECREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
BEEN NOTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RADIAL OUTFLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN, ALLOWING LUPIT TO REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LACK OF AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL HINDER SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW FOR 22W TO REMAIN A
SUPER TYPHOON BEYOND TAU 24. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
LUPIT HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. LANDFALL WITH
LUZON IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

It's not moving much to the north, huh?

[oaba09]

It's not moving much to the north, huh?

It seems to be following the path on wundermap now...

[drdavisjr]

It's not moving much to the north, huh?

It seems to be following the path on wundermap now...

Not really. Wundermap periodically updates recent track observation. It's still south.

[oaba09]

It's not moving much to the north, huh?

It seems to be following the path on wundermap now...

Not really. Wundermap periodically updates recent track observation. It's still south.

I see...That I didn't know

[oaba09]

PAGASA just increased the maximum sustained winds of lupit to 195 kph....It's still far from the actual 130 knots(240 kph) that the JTWC has,,,,