WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

Here is the link to the Wundermap I'm looking at.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0

[oaba09]

Thats what I told them. Maybe it will go NE and miss everyone. The LAST thing you guys need is another storm. I hope for the bes tfor you guys!

Thank you.....we have just been very unlucky these past few weeks.....The total death toll from the last 2 storms are almost at 800....I can't imagine what will happen if this monster of a system hits us...This may actually be the worst of of the 3(ketsana, parma, Lupit)

[oaba09]

Here is the link to the Wundermap I'm looking at.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0

Yeah....from that...it seems to be moving a little bit south of the forecasted track......great link by the way....

[drdavisjr]

Here is the link to the Wundermap I'm looking at.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0

Yeah....from that...it seems to be moving a little bit south of the forecasted track......great link by the way....

If I understand this forecast right, the sooner it turns west, the worse it could be for us...

I think we should all expect the worse and of course, pray for the best.

The worse thing that could happen to us would be rain more than wind, in my humble opinion.

[oaba09]

Here is the link to the Wundermap I'm looking at.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... fd=0&pix=0

Yeah....from that...it seems to be moving a little bit south of the forecasted track......great link by the way....

If I understand this forecast right, the sooner it turns west, the worse it could be for us...

I think we should all expect the worse and of course, pray for the best.

The worse thing that could happen to us would be rain more than wind, in my humble opinion.

For the southern part of luzon, yes....we need to worry more about the rain....But for those in the direct path of the typhoon.......they really need to prepare for the wind.....

[drdavisjr]

For the southern part of luzon, yes....we need to worry more about the rain....But for those in the direct path of the typhoon.......they really need to prepare for the wind.....

Yes, my gosh. Those poor people...it could be a nightmare for them. Remember, when Parma (Pepeng) actually made landfall, it was a Cat 2 storm. This storm has all the potential of blowing in as a Cat 4...

[oaba09]

For the southern part of luzon, yes....we need to worry more about the rain....But for those in the direct path of the typhoon.......they really need to prepare for the wind.....

Yes, my gosh. Those poor people...it could be a nightmare for them. Remember, when Parma (Pepeng) actually made landfall, it was a Cat 2 storm. This storm has all the potential of blowing in as a Cat 4...

Exactly...I can't even think of the devastation that this super typhoon can cause.......The gov't should start forced evacuations starting tomorrow or wednesday...I just hope those people won't be too stubborn in leaving their homes...

[drdavisjr]

Exactly...I can't even think of the devastation that this super typhoon can cause.......The gov't should start forced evacuations starting tomorrow or wednesday...I just hope those people won't be too stubborn in leaving their homes...

Yeah, I think they should start tomorrow moving people south in buses towards Pampanga. The president loves Pampanga so much, I'm sure she could arrange that.

[Typhoon10]

Is there any chance the trough will weaken and Lupit will move more Northernly inbetween Philippines and Taiwan heading towards Hong Kong and China Coast?

Could this happen over the next couple of days?

[oaba09]

Is there any chance the trough will weaken and Lupit will move more Northernly inbetween Philippines and Taiwan heading towards Hong Kong and China Coast?

Could this happen over the next couple of days?

Right now, almost all models show a SW track towards the Philippines....I can't really can't give other possibilities cause I'm not an expert in this matter...I'm pretty much still trying to learn more about storms.....

[drdavisjr]

oaba9, i dont "think" it was a wobble. According to that link I gave you, it seems to be riding the southern part of the potential tract area.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

oaba9, i dont "think" it was a wobble. According to that link I gave you, it seems to be riding the southern part of the potential tract area.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Let's observe that in the coming hours because that may play a significant role in the track of the typhoon....If it is indeed moving south of the supposed track, then we are in very big trouble....

[drdavisjr]

PAGASA 11 AM Track.

[drdavisjr]

Let's observe that in the coming hours because that may play a significant role in the track of the typhoon....If it is indeed moving south of the supposed track, then we are in very big trouble....

Anywhere as far south as Baguio would be such a calamity for the entire island of Luzon...this has to be watched closely.

[drdavisjr]

Looks like all models are now in agreement for a northern Luzon strike.

[oaba09]

Looks like all models are now in agreement for a northern Luzon strike.

except PAGASA.....they always have late forecasts....They really need to upgrade their equipments....

[metenthusiast]

Let's observe that in the coming hours because that may play a significant role in the track of the typhoon....If it is indeed moving south of the supposed track, then we are in very big trouble....

Anywhere as far south as Baguio would be such a calamity for the entire island of Luzon...this has to be watched closely.

You got that right guys. Lupit movements should be watched closely, for those who'll likely to be affected, at any rate. I have been listening consistently on your discussions guys, and from the way it sounds I guess I already ought to arrange to re-schedule my treatment earlier. Thinking of putting it on Wednesday rather than Thursday.

[drdavisjr]

Let's observe that in the coming hours because that may play a significant role in the track of the typhoon....If it is indeed moving south of the supposed track, then we are in very big trouble....

Anywhere as far south as Baguio would be such a calamity for the entire island of Luzon...this has to be watched closely.

You got that right guys. Lupit movements should be watched closely, for those who'll likely to be affected, at any rate. I have been listening consistently on your discussions guys, and from the way it sounds I guess I already ought to arrange to re-schedule my treatment earlier. Thinking of putting it on Wednesday rather than Thursday.

Why not tomorrow???

[metenthusiast]

Looks like all models are now in agreement for a northern Luzon strike.

except PAGASA.....they always have late forecasts....They really need to upgrade their equipments....

That's right and pardon me but I find those forecasters there a bit irritating every time they deliver forecast over television. I guess its they seeming aura of nonchalance that gets into my nerves...

I hope Ondoy(Ketsana) and Pepeng(Parma) already served the lesson. Let us not wait for Ramil(Lupit) to put a stress to the virtues of being prepared.

[drdavisjr]

except PAGASA.....they always have late forecasts....They really need to upgrade their equipments....

That is so sad since probably 90% of the Filipino people get their info from PAGASA.