WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[metenthusiast]

Still 3 days until the first possible landfall. You just have to watch it and be prepared.

Yes, thanks. But I must admit it's the wait that's eating up most of us here. It's just nice that there's a community like storm2k discussing the systems movements.

I guess I've always been a firm believer of the mantra: "Forewarned is Forearmed"

[drdavisjr]

My thoughts too

Indeed. When Ondoy (Ketsana) hit the metro (and its only a tropical storm when it hit, packing 55-75 kph winds) I was forced to cancel my dialysis treatment due to severe flooding. I have my treatment scheduled on Thursday. I just hope to God I am not forced to cancel that again...

Yikes, that's serious! (Off topic, my brother-in-law had a transplant 2 years ago).

[ozonepete]

My thoughts too

Indeed. When Ondoy (Ketsana) hit the metro (and its only a tropical storm when it hit, packing 55-75 kph winds) I was forced to cancel my dialysis treatment due to severe flooding. I have my treatment scheduled on Thursday. I just hope to God I am not forced to cancel that again...

I would suggest you make alternate plans now, because even if the typhoon passes well north of Manila, you could still have flooding. Why take the chance? I wish you luck, my friend.

[drdavisjr]

My thoughts too

Indeed. When Ondoy (Ketsana) hit the metro (and its only a tropical storm when it hit, packing 55-75 kph winds) I was forced to cancel my dialysis treatment due to severe flooding. I have my treatment scheduled on Thursday. I just hope to God I am not forced to cancel that again...

I would suggest you make alternate plans now, because even if the typhoon passes well north of Manila, you could still have flooding. Why take the chance? I wish you luck, my friend.

Funny you should say that ozonepete, last night we had a 15 min hard rain and we had 2 ft flooding in the street. It quickly went away after a few minutes, but it just shows that the city's infrastructure is maxed out.

[oaba09]

I'm actually interested to see how much rain this typhoon has. I know that there's heavy rainfall near the center but I'm not sure how heavy the rain is on the outer part of the system....

Are there any graph or image that we can look at?

[ozonepete]

Funny you should say that ozonepete, last night we had a 15 min hard rain and we had 2 ft flooding in the street. It quickly went away after a few minutes, but it just shows that the city's infrastructure is maxed out.

That's why I'm telling metenthusiast to make alternate plans. Things are bad enough there as it is. From the best that the forecasts tell us right now, this typhoon will be moving across the northern part of the island on Thursday during the day, your time. Because it's pretty large it could very well cause heavy rain at Manila. Metenthusiast, if you have something as serious as dialysys to attend to, Thursday is the worst day. Try to make it a day or two earlier if you can.

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[drdavisjr]

I'm actually interested to see how much rain this typhoon has. I know that there's heavy rainfall near the center but I'm not sure how heavy the rain is on the outer part of the system....

Are there any graph or image that we can look at?

http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/ade ... ?mode=view

I don't know how good this is.

NOTE: If you have Google Toolbar, I think you can get a translated version.

[ozonepete]

Sorry I must go to bed now. There are a lot of great people on here who will be able to answer your questions. Just remember there is still a lot of time and there are a lot of unusual factors with this storm, so that the final outcome is very much undecided. No one can say for certain what will happen for another day or two. I'll see you all tomorrow.

[drdavisjr]

Sorry I must go to bed now. There are a lot of great people on here who will be able to answer your questions. Just remember there is still a lot of time and there are a lot of unusual factors with this storm, so that the final outcome is very much undecided. No one can say for certain what will happen for another day or two. I'll see you all tomorrow.

Thanks for patiently answering all our nervious questions from the Philippines.

[oaba09]

Sorry I must go to bed now. There are a lot of great people on here who will be able to answer your questions. Just remember there is still a lot of time and there are a lot of unusual factors with this storm, so that the final outcome is very much undecided. No one can say for certain what will happen for another day or two. I'll see you all tomorrow.

Thank you!

[oaba09]

I'm actually interested to see how much rain this typhoon has. I know that there's heavy rainfall near the center but I'm not sure how heavy the rain is on the outer part of the system....

Are there any graph or image that we can look at?

http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/ade ... ?mode=view

I don't know how good this is.

NOTE: If you have Google Toolbar, I think you can get a translated version.

Hmmm......I can't really determine from that...I'm gonna try to find something w/ numerical values...I believe I saw one before..

[metenthusiast]

That's why I'm telling metenthusiast to make alternate plans. Things are bad enough there as it is. From the best that the forecasts tell us right now, this typhoon will be moving across the northern part of the island on Thursday during the day, your time. Because it's pretty large it could very well cause heavy rain at Manila. Metenthusiast, if you have something as serious as dialysys to attend to, Thursday is the worst day. Try to make it a day or two earlier if you can.

Thanks for the advice! I am in fact already looking into probable alternatives and monitoring Lupit's movements as well.

[drdavisjr]

Manila friends here:

Does this storm seem to be making a tight turn to you? My wundermap has it below track (again)...

Or is this just a wobble?

[metenthusiast]

Manila friends here:

Does this storm seem to be making a tight turn to you? My wundermap has it below track (again)...

Or is this just a wobble?

this image shows that it seems to be doing that:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-ir4.html

although as you said, it might be a wobble...

[oaba09]

Manila friends here:

Does this storm seem to be making a tight turn to you? My wundermap has it below track (again)...

Or is this just a wobble?

It seems to be going NW right now......The eye seems to currently on the same level as the northern part of the main island of luzon....

I think it's still pretty consistent w/ the JTWC forecast...Do you have a link so that I can check it out

[metenthusiast]

Manila friends here:

Does this storm seem to be making a tight turn to you? My wundermap has it below track (again)...

Or is this just a wobble?

It seems to be going NW right now......The eye seems to currently on the same level as the northern part of the main island of luzon....

I think it's still pretty consistent w/ the JTWC forecast...Do you have a link so that I can check it out

I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for but I hope it could help

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2209.gif
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

[oaba09]

Manila friends here:

Does this storm seem to be making a tight turn to you? My wundermap has it below track (again)...

Or is this just a wobble?

It seems to be going NW right now......The eye seems to currently on the same level as the northern part of the main island of luzon....

I think it's still pretty consistent w/ the JTWC forecast...Do you have a link so that I can check it out

I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for but I hope it could help

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2209.gif
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

Those are from the JTWC....I'm actually asking for the link to whatever drdavisjr is looking at...

from this link, it seems to still be going NW...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... scolw.html

[StormingB81]

We have people in Okinawa wondering if we should start preparing incase it doesn't turn. I told them don't worry its not forcasted to be anywhere near here nor or we in the probability circle.

[oaba09]

We have people in Okinawa wondering if we should start preparing incase it doesn't turn. I told them don't worry its not forcasted to be anywhere near here nor or we in the probability circle.

I don't think you guys have anything to worry about right now......All the models pretty much agree that Lupit will move Southwest going to the northern part of our country....

[StormingB81]

Thats what I told them. Maybe it will go NE and miss everyone. The LAST thing you guys need is another storm. I hope for the bes tfor you guys!