#430 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 07, 2009 3:35 pm
000
WTNT35 KNHC 072032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009
...HENRI CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HENRI
COULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 58.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT45 KNHC 072032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009
HENRI IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH A
SECONDARY CENTER NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES GIVEN AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...
BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SHEAR IS LIKELY FOR A DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. IF HENRI SURVIVES THAT SHEAR...AN UPPER-TROUGH AXIS WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE KNOCKOUT BLOW TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
USING A MEAN MOTION OF THE TWO CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/12. A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CAUSE HENRI...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF WEST UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. THIS SOLUTION HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR BAM SHALLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.4N 58.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 60.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 20.9N 62.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.2N 63.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.0N 66.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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