WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[Cyclenall]

IMO it looks better than Choi-wan in visible imagery, very symmetrical and with excellent outflow in all quadrants, certainly a beautiful storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks - No signs of an ERC either...definitely looks even better than Choi-wan did. Strongest storm in the world this year probably.

No, Super Typhoon Choi-wan on September 16 at 0730z looked better than what Melor looks like currently.

The floater imagery page isn't loading right now on the NHC's site. I want some of these Melor images other then from the NRL and Typhoon2000 websites.

[ozonepete]

Strongest storm in the world in 2009 now - and the strongest since Hurricane Felix in 2007 in any basin (wind-wise).

That's a lot of ACE!

[ozonepete]

BTW, as rare as this is, it will be REALLY rare if PARMA were to drift eastward at all over the next few hours. You'll have two typhoons moving pretty much directly towards each other. More likely that PARMA will stay stationary or drift northwestward, but I can say for sure I've never seen two tropical cyclones moving towards each other along almost the same latitude.

I saw the forecast tracks on PARMA, ozonepete, and noted that the US and Taiwan tracks actually turned back eastward. Like you, I also wondered what would happen with the two systems moving at each other! This is definitely an interesting situation to follow.

Fascinating! One very difficult (and interesting) forecasting challenge.

[ozonepete]

IMO it looks better than Choi-wan in visible imagery, very symmetrical and with excellent outflow in all quadrants, certainly a beautiful storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks - No signs of an ERC either...definitely looks even better than Choi-wan did. Strongest storm in the world this year probably.

No, Super Typhoon Choi-wan on September 16 at 0730z looked better than what Melor looks like currently.

The floater imagery page isn't loading right now on the NHC's site. I want some of these Melor images other then from the NRL and Typhoon2000 websites.

Sorry this is the best editing I could come up with quickly - the image sizes are not the same. But the CHOI-WAN image is from 2009-09-16 at 0730. MELOR is from 2009-10-04 0030. I'd give it to MELOR by a hair on symmetry. And eye size/clarity of course is not always as it seems. It looks like a horse race to me.

[Squarethecircle]

Choi-wan's eye seems much more deep and round because of the time of day (shadows). It's a close call though. This area certainly seems very conducive to strong TC development right now.

[ozonepete]

BTW, if PARMA doesn't move much it could weaken considerably due to upwelling, which the JTWC has pointed out a number of times now. Should this bear out, MELOR could have a really deleterious effect on PARMA, i.e. the binary interaction from the fujiwhara effect could result in PARMA getting absorbed into MELOR's circulation. It's not out of the question, since any decent-sized cat4/5 storm has a tremendous suction effect at low and middle levels over any nearby area.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like west of the Marianas is a good place to become a cat. 5

[JTE50]

I vote for Melor cause that's the storm I'm on.

[ozonepete]

I vote for Melor cause that's the storm I'm on.

Ain't that the way it goes.

[HURAKAN]

Lets enjoy the beauty

[vbhoutex]

I vote for Melor cause that's the storm I'm on.

Are you over there Jim?

[Cyclenall]

Sorry this is the best editing I could come up with quickly - the image sizes are not the same. But the CHOI-WAN image is from 2009-09-16 at 0730. MELOR is from 2009-10-04 0030. I'd give it to MELOR by a hair on symmetry. And eye size/clarity of course is not always as it seems. It looks like a horse race to me.

The symmetry of the entire storm looks the same but the eye symmetry is slightly better on Choi-wan and uniformly cleared where there was still a speck in Melor's at 00:30 UTC. The convection around Melor's eye is more impressive.

:uarrow: Choi-wan's eye seems much more deep and round because of the time of day (shadows). It's a close call though. This area certainly seems very conducive to strong TC development right now.

I'm aware that the shadows make Choi-wan look better in that pic but it actually had a more uniform eye and cleaner one.

It's now tied with Choi-wan as of 3:30 UTC. It's also maybe stronger at 150 knots.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 536
WTPQ52 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 16.6N 142.3E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 190NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 18.6N 136.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 060000UTC 22.0N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 070000UTC 25.9N 130.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 080000UTC 29.6N 133.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 090000UTC 33.4N 139.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT =
NNNN

[ozonepete]

It's becoming apparent that PARMA has too much land interaction with the very high northern Philippine mountains and too much upwelling underneath it. Look at its condition compared to MELOR. I would think it will weaken even furher before the mighty MELOR gets near it. But in the end it looks like PARMA will have enough influence to pull MELOR a little further west than it would have gone if PARMA wasn't there. If that analysis is correct, what's the end result? Eastern Japan gets slammed. Even tokyo could get a pretty bad blow.

[HurricaneBill]

Prior to Melor, the last super typhoon to have winds higher than 140KT was Chaba (155KT) in 2004.

[JTE50]

I vote for Melor cause that's the storm I'm on.

Are you over there Jim?

I was in Saipan for Melor now I'm back at Base Camp on Guam. Some video on my website.

[JTE50]

Prior to Melor, the last super typhoon to have winds higher than 140KT was Chaba (155KT) in 2004.

So that must be the one the folks on Saipan were talking about all the time. I didn't recall that one but I interviewed a number of folks and Chaba came up every time. I wonder how close to Saipan it came . . .

[Infdidoll]

[/b]

This path is different than the JTWC path, inolving Okinawa and southern Japan more. Wondering what your takes are on this? Any opinions on which prediction may be the most likely course? I know it's probably going to have a lot to do with how much this thing keeps tracking to the West before it shifts, but I don't have much experience predicting storm paths. I've only lived on Okinawa a few months.

[StormingB81]

I think it will Hit japan..OK i say that mostly because thats where I am at. Although everyone here has prepared for the storm. I am wondering because the JMA has put has in prababilty of 50kt wins why we arnt in any TCCOR yet. Hopefully some people dont get blind sided if it does hit.

[Infdidoll]

I think it will Hit japan..OK i say that mostly because thats where I am at. Although everyone here has prepared for the storm. I am wondering because the JMA has put has in prababilty of 50kt wins why we arnt in any TCCOR yet. Hopefully some people dont get blind sided if it does hit.

Hey neighbor! Nice to meet you...I'm new to the boards, but have read for a while. Kadena's weather site has put out no notification whatsoever about this, yet. I've never been through a typhoon, but one of this size and living on the seawall has me a bit nervous. The only way I found out anything is because I'm a weather nerd and check it constantly. Since we just moved here, we're not exactly prepared...guess we'd better get to the commissary tomorrow to try to avoid what my husband calls the wildabeast rush.

Thank you to the other storm trackers out there posting...this site has been a Godsend for info.