supercane
WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
BTW, cool Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis from CIRA available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP202009
supercane
supercane
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
348
ASPQ40 PGUM 030610
RWRPQ
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR THE MARIANAS AND MICRONESIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM GSST SAT OCT 03 2009
GUZ001>004-030700-
MARIANA ISLANDS-
Interesting that winds are already westerly at Saipan.
supercane
ASPQ40 PGUM 030610
RWRPQ
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR THE MARIANAS AND MICRONESIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM GSST SAT OCT 03 2009
GUZ001>004-030700-
MARIANA ISLANDS-
Code: Select all
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GUAM AIRPORT MOSUNNY 82 77 83 W20G28 29.64S HX 91
ANDERSEN AFB PTSUNNY 81 73 78 NW24G32 29.63S
ROTA AIRPORT LGT RAIN 79 75 89 NW23 29.57F
TINIAN AP NOT AVBL
SAIPAN AP RAIN 79 77 94 W23G35 29.44F FOG Interesting that winds are already westerly at Saipan.
supercane
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W) Intermediate
125
WTPQ34 PGUM 030647
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
500 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
..TYPHOON MELOR MAKING CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO SAIPAN
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.
AT 400 PM CHST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
115 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
180 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
235 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND
185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE
CENTER WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES WITHIN THE SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CHST POSITION...16.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
146.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM.
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
WTPQ34 PGUM 030647
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
500 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
..TYPHOON MELOR MAKING CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO SAIPAN
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.
AT 400 PM CHST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
115 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
180 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
235 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND
185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE
CENTER WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES WITHIN THE SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CHST POSITION...16.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
146.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM.
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Winds gusting once again to weak TS force at Saipan, but definitely escaping lightly given storm at CPA.
885
ASPQ40 PGUM 030710
RWRPQ
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR THE MARIANAS AND MICRONESIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM GSST SAT OCT 03 2009
GUZ001>004-030800-
MARIANA ISLANDS-
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GUAM AIRPORT PTSUNNY 82 75 78 W18G29 29.65R
ANDERSEN AFB MOSUNNY 81 73 78 NW20 29.64R
ROTA AIRPORT CLOUDY 79 75 89 W22G35 29.58R
TINIAN AP NOT AVBL
SAIPAN AP CLOUDY 79 77 94 W30G43 29.41F = 996 mb
885
ASPQ40 PGUM 030710
RWRPQ
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR THE MARIANAS AND MICRONESIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM GSST SAT OCT 03 2009
GUZ001>004-030800-
MARIANA ISLANDS-
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GUAM AIRPORT PTSUNNY 82 75 78 W18G29 29.65R
ANDERSEN AFB MOSUNNY 81 73 78 NW20 29.64R
ROTA AIRPORT CLOUDY 79 75 89 W22G35 29.58R
TINIAN AP NOT AVBL
SAIPAN AP CLOUDY 79 77 94 W30G43 29.41F = 996 mb
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It dark here on Saipan now. Interesting how the pressure dropped from 997 to 992 as I drove back out to Banzai Cliff this afternoon. Before I left, at 6pm the pressure was 989.
I filmed 3 Americans standing at the observation deck at the cliff get covered up by a huge wave/spray from Melor. It's pretty funny.
The wind was not too impressive, although it's blowing harder now than at any time today. Thanks for all the posts with track info and data. I passed along the info to the locals that took shelter here in the motel. They were quite concerned - but felt much better getting info from reliable sources.
I filmed 3 Americans standing at the observation deck at the cliff get covered up by a huge wave/spray from Melor. It's pretty funny.
The wind was not too impressive, although it's blowing harder now than at any time today. Thanks for all the posts with track info and data. I passed along the info to the locals that took shelter here in the motel. They were quite concerned - but felt much better getting info from reliable sources.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
0900z Warning=115kts
WTPN34 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.2N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.6N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 38.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 146.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE TYPHOON REMAINS A 115 KNOT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
PROGRESSIVELY ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE MID-LATITUDES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO
BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72. BY TAU 96 (JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO), THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. BY DAY 5
THE SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z,
032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
WTPN34 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.2N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.6N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 38.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 146.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE TYPHOON REMAINS A 115 KNOT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
PROGRESSIVELY ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE MID-LATITUDES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO
BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72. BY TAU 96 (JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO), THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. BY DAY 5
THE SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z,
032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
000
WTPQ84 PGUM 031140
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
940 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR PASSING JUST NORTH OF ANATAHAN...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO
40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
AGRIHAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA IS CANCELED AS OF 8 PM CHST.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 900 PM CHST...1100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN...100 MILES NORTH OF TINIAN...160 MILES NORTH OF
ROTA...210 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND 165 MILES SOUTH OF
AGRIHAN. TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TYPHOON BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR UNINFORMED
OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. MARINERS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-032000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
940 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON AGRIHAN. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS CAN STILL
BECOME AIRBORNE... CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.
SOME POWER LINES MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING TREES...RESULTING
IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL BE
SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
$$
GUZ002-PMZ152-031245-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
940 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
&&
...WINDS...
EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE.
WTPQ84 PGUM 031140
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
940 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR PASSING JUST NORTH OF ANATAHAN...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO
40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
AGRIHAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA IS CANCELED AS OF 8 PM CHST.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 900 PM CHST...1100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN...100 MILES NORTH OF TINIAN...160 MILES NORTH OF
ROTA...210 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND 165 MILES SOUTH OF
AGRIHAN. TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TYPHOON BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR UNINFORMED
OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. MARINERS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-032000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
940 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON AGRIHAN. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS CAN STILL
BECOME AIRBORNE... CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.
SOME POWER LINES MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING TREES...RESULTING
IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL BE
SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
$$
GUZ002-PMZ152-031245-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
940 PM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
&&
...WINDS...
EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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ZCZC 264
WTPQ22 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 16.3N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 17.8N 140.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 050600UTC 20.2N 135.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 060600UTC 24.8N 131.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
NNNN
WTPQ22 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 16.3N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 17.8N 140.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 050600UTC 20.2N 135.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 060600UTC 24.8N 131.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
You can see the 35 mile wide eye at the long range radar.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
cycloneye wrote:You can see the 35 mile wide eye at the long range radar.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
Saved for posterity
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Guam,Rota,Tinian and Saipan dodged the worse of this strong typhoon.When it started to develop (Around 6N) it was a big threat because of that very south position related to the Mariana islands mentioned above.But thankfully,it started to track NW for a long time and that movement caused that they got spared from being a disaster.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
1500z JTWC Warning=115kts
WTPN34 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.9N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 144.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
WTPN34 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.9N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 144.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
000
WTPQ54 PGUM 031640 CCA
TCEPQ4
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
200 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
CORRECTION TO TIME
AT 159 AM CHST...1559Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.1 DEGREES
EAST.
THE CENTER IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 33000 FEET FROM THE GUAM RADAR. THE
EYE IS NOW LOCATED 215 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM RADAR AND 145 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT
15 MPH. THE EYE HAD A DIAMETER OF 30 MILES.
$$
ZIOBRO
WTPQ54 PGUM 031640 CCA
TCEPQ4
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
200 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
CORRECTION TO TIME
AT 159 AM CHST...1559Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.1 DEGREES
EAST.
THE CENTER IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 33000 FEET FROM THE GUAM RADAR. THE
EYE IS NOW LOCATED 215 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM RADAR AND 145 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT
15 MPH. THE EYE HAD A DIAMETER OF 30 MILES.
$$
ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
000
WTPQ34 PGUM 031606 RRA
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
AT 200 AM CHST...1600Z...PGUA WSR-88D SHOWED THE CENTER OF TYPHOON
MELOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
180 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
215 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER
WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES WITHIN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.
REPEATING THE 200 AM CHST POSITION...16.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 144.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
STANKO
000
WTPQ84 PGUM 031539
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
139 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
....TYPHOON MELOR MOVING AWAY FROM TINIAN AND SAIPAN..
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO
40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE A TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 12 AM FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1256 AM CHST...1456Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...180 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND 215 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM. THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 130 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TYPHOON BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ACROSS AGRIHAN THIS
MORNING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-031645-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
139 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED AS OF 12 AM...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...OCCASIONAL TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON AGRIHAN. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS
CAN STILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE
INJURY. SOME POWER LINES MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING
TREES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES
OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE FOR AGRIHAN...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
$$
WTPQ34 PGUM 031606 RRA
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
AT 200 AM CHST...1600Z...PGUA WSR-88D SHOWED THE CENTER OF TYPHOON
MELOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
180 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
215 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER
WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES WITHIN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.
REPEATING THE 200 AM CHST POSITION...16.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 144.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
STANKO
000
WTPQ84 PGUM 031539
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
139 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
....TYPHOON MELOR MOVING AWAY FROM TINIAN AND SAIPAN..
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO
40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE A TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 12 AM FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1256 AM CHST...1456Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...180 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND 215 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM. THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 130 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TYPHOON BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ACROSS AGRIHAN THIS
MORNING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-031645-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
139 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED AS OF 12 AM...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...OCCASIONAL TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON AGRIHAN. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS
CAN STILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE
INJURY. SOME POWER LINES MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING
TREES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES
OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE FOR AGRIHAN...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
$$
0 likes
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
00
WTPQ84 PGUM 031739
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
330 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
....TYPHOON MELOR MOVING AWAY FROM TINIAN AND SAIPAN..
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO
40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 258 AM CHST...1658Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND 220 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 130 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TYPHOON. AS A RESULT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ACROSS
AGRIHAN THIS MORNING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF PERIODS NEAR TYPHOON FORCE THIS MORNING ON
AGRIHAN. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS CAN STILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY LARGE BRANCHES
OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE FOR AGRIHAN...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 9 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
$$
WTPQ84 PGUM 031739
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
330 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009
....TYPHOON MELOR MOVING AWAY FROM TINIAN AND SAIPAN..
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO
40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 258 AM CHST...1658Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND 220 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 130 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TYPHOON. AS A RESULT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ACROSS
AGRIHAN THIS MORNING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF PERIODS NEAR TYPHOON FORCE THIS MORNING ON
AGRIHAN. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS CAN STILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY LARGE BRANCHES
OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE FOR AGRIHAN...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 9 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
$$
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