WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[ozonepete]

Is there a possibility for this typhoon to change it's current direction & towards the central part of luzon? If so, how high is that possibility?

The latest from JTWC has it crossing east central or northeast Luzon at 00Z on the third, which is 8PM this evening in eastern U.S. time. I haven't seen any changes. The worst part is the strong possibility it will become quasi-stationary as it gets caught in a weak steering environment between the subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching, slowing trough from the west. As Hurakan posted earlier, this may cause catastrophic rains.

Another major complication is the approach of powerful typhoon MELOR during the weekend. Byt the 4th or 5th, they will be close enough to go into the Fujiwhara effect. This causes the two interacting tropical cyclones to start rotating counter-clockwise around the midpoint between their centers. This should cause MELOR to go further west than it would have, and PARMA will turn south and then eastward, prolonging the rains until MELOR gets out of the way.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 478
WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 15.8N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 18.1N 122.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 041200UTC 19.3N 121.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 051200UTC 20.0N 121.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 061200UTC 20.6N 121.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 071200UTC 21.6N 124.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

MANILA: Philippine President Gloria Arroyo today ordered the evacuation of coastal towns and other areas in the direct path of powerful typhoon Parma, as thousands of people in Manila fled their homes.


Arroyo said she had called the governors of six northern provinces in the path of the approaching typhoon and called on them to evacuate low-lying and coastal areas that might be hit by torrential rain.
“We need that preventative evacuation,” she said in a nationally televised conference with a range of government officials that was held to discuss the preparations for Parma and relief efforts for last weekend’s killer storm.
Arroyo did not specify how many people would be evacuated or what would be done to those who resist being moved.
Parma, packing gusts of 230 kilometres (145 miles) an hour, was forecast to hit rural areas in the north of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon before dawn on Saturday.

In some parts of the metropolitan Manila area a few hundred kilometres to the south, local authorities were ordering residents to be evacuated for fear that Parma would worsen flooding left behind by Saturday’s tropical storm Kestana.
“I ordered this morning the evacuation of people in flood-stricken areas...
thousands have already transferred to public schools and my own rice milling compound,” said Calixto R. Cataquiz, mayor of the town of San Pedro.
Ketsana brought the worst flooding in more than 40 years to the capital and surrounding areas, leaving 293 dead. Five days later, floodwaters still have not receded in many areas. -- AFP

http://nst.com.my/articles/200910021327 ... index_html

[P.K.]

T5.0 from the JMA at 1800.

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 16.4N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 18.6N 121.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 041800UTC 19.2N 121.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 051800UTC 19.9N 121.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Aslkahuna]

That stall off the NW coast of Luzon is precisely what the Philippines does not need right now. I've been in situations like that when I was over there and things get really messy. The heavy rains could even possibly extend down into Manila if we get an acceleration of the monsoon flow south of the storm.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

21z = 100 knots



WTPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.9N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.3N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 123.4E. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO BECOME AFFECTED BY
INTERACTION WITH LAND AS DEEP CONVECTION WANES IN THE BANDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LUZON,
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12 AND MOVE BACK OVER
WATER BY TAU 24. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST ERODES
DURING THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, TY 19W WILL MOVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 24, AND WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY IN
THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME, AND A NUMBER OF
INFLUENCES COULD BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING FLOW. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE STR TO THE EAST TO BUILD FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF TY 20W (MELOR) AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WILL
PICK UP 19W AND SLOWLY BRING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72;
THIS IS FAVORED BY GFS AND GFDN. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS FOR THE STR TO
THE WEST, LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS
WOULD PICK UP 19W AND SLOWLY TRACK IT WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AFTER TAU 48; THIS SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY JGSM. THE FINAL
POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR TY 20W TO APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO 19W TO
INITIATE A BINARY INTERACTION THAT WOULD CAUSE 19W TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY ECMWF AND
NOGAPS. DUE TO THE FORECAST DISTANCE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS BEING TOO
GREAT FOR INTERACTION, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
EAST AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

HK Observatory now has PARMA turning right heading towards the East of Taiwan instead of heading towards the SCS and HK How accurate is this?

[tim_in_ga]

HK Observatory now has PARMA turning right heading towards the East of Taiwan instead of heading towards the SCS and HK How accurate is this?

Hard to say, but I was just watching the news from Taiwan and their forecasters were saying the exact same thing. JTWC seems to agree as well.

[Bunkertor]

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=90kts

WTPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.1N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 122.5E. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,
PHILIPPINES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WEAK. 19W WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND
INCREASES THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 0300z warning by JTWC.

WDPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF
LUZON, THE SYSTEM HAS SEEN A DISRUPTION IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS
ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDES, AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS A TYPHOON, BUT THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND.
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC
REASONING BULLETIN. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE
EAST AFTER TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT
PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24. DURING THIS PERIOD,
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN COAST OF
LUZON. BY TAU 12, IT WILL CROSS BACK INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
CREATED BY WEAKENING OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE WEAK STEERING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TURNS TO THE EAST
AND ACCELERATES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GREATLY
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE ALL AVAILABLE TRACKERS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, FAVORING A SCENARIO WITH A SHARP TURN TO
THE EAST. SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN STILL VARY, BUT MOST MODELS
COMPLETE A VERY SLOW CHANGE OF DIRECTION WITHIN THE LUZON STRAIT BY
TAU 72 BEFORE MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE STR TO THE EAST SLOWLY BUILDS. AS
TYPHOON 20W APPROACHES FROM THE EAST, WEAK INTERACTION IS EXPECTED
TO HELP ACCELERATE 19W AND WILL STEER THE SYSTEM ON MORE OF AN
EASTWARD TRACK, VICE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72, WITH THE VARIATION LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT
LEVELS OF INTERACTION WITH 20W. GFS, GFDN AND UKMO CALLING FOR A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AND ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALLING FOR
STRONGER BINARY INTERACTION AND BRINGING 19W MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 72. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK BECAUSE
THE INTERACTION IN THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS HAS BEEN ANALYZED AS
EXCESSIVE.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Close to the coast

[HurricaneBill]

Is it me or does it look like Parma's trying to restrengthen?

[Aslkahuna]

This will be a rather different event than Ketsana. The heaviest rains from Ketsana were about 50-120 miles south of the track in the region where the accelerated monsoon flow inflowing into the developing storm encountered the dynamics of the system which being in earlier stages of development featured a good deal of mid level vorticity as well as low. Parma is a developed system and the LLCC will take a beating from the terrain. The mountainous terrain will result in very heavy rains in northern Luzon in much the same way as Morakot unloaded on the mountains of Taiwan. Typically, northern Luzon gets about 10-20 inches of rain from the usual typhoon passage this time of year but a slowdown or stall could up those amounts drastically. Onshore flow into Manila and Subic Bays could bring rainsqualls down there but in October they are not usually as intense as they would be with a July storm in the same location.

Steve

[StormingB81]

Looks like this may head to Okinawa after all. This forecast has changed so many time in the last 3 days it is crazy!

[Cyclenall]

Is it me or does it look like Parma's trying to restrengthen?

It's eye reappeared just as it was hitting the coast. I guess it did by 10-15 knots.

The forecast for the track is unusual. I don't recall a typhoon bending that sharply east so quickly after traveling north-westwards. There was one in the Atlantic; Hurricane Felix in 1995.

[StormingB81]

Going to be another interesting few days here.