#72 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:34 pm
000
WTNT33 KNHC 260232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND AWAY FROM
LAND...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST OR ABOUT
560 MILES...900 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY BUT
IT SHOULD WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 32.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT43 KNHC 260236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION WAS MINIMAL BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO
BLOSSOM AS WE SPEAK. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...FOR
THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR SOONER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SINCE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE
PRESENCE OF THE DEPRESSION OR DEPICT THE DEPRESSION AS A SMALL
VORTMAX.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.4N 32.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 18.4N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 19.6N 36.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 37.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 38.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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