#10 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 23, 2009 10:48 am
ABPW10 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231400Z-240600ZSEP2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
133.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE 230902Z QUIKSCAT PASS. A
230837Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS CURVED INFLOW INTO THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2N 109.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING ABOUT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR
AND ADD AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ECHO//
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