ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[storms NC]

Well If it wasn't to late in the season I would say when the Pacific slows down the
Atlantic picks up. But maybe to late now.

See what this thing will do this X fred. Don't think it would be more than a rain maker to where ever it goes. More like SC-NC line then pushed back out to sea.

you do know we just past the peak of the season 9 days ago right

Right! We are on the down hill slide now. There will be maybe 2-3 small storms but not much. Just not in the cards this year.
What I think has happen is that from 1996 to now we have had so many and we just got use to having so many. Now we have a avg season no one knows how to act.

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, it is "Internet sensation: Fred" the guy with a billion YouTube followers. He is behind this.

And topic related, uh, yes that looks like an upper level low west of Fred...wonder how it gets written in to the story?

[Aric Dunn]

Well If it wasn't to late in the season I would say when the Pacific slows down the
Atlantic picks up. But maybe to late now.

See what this thing will do this X fred. Don't think it would be more than a rain maker to where ever it goes. More like SC-NC line then pushed back out to sea.

you do know we just past the peak of the season 9 days ago right

Right! We are on the down hill slide now. There will be maybe 2-3 small storms but not much. Just not in the cards this year.
What I think has happen is that from 1996 to now we have had so many and we just got use to having so many. Now we have a avg season no one knows how to act.

but you said late in the season .. so regardless if we are in a average season its still pretty much the peak until october starts

but yeah having so many really active season throws us off a little..

[storms NC]

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

It maybe me but I see a W-NW movement

[boca]

Maybe EX Fred can push us over the 40 mark for ace.

[jaxfladude]

It looks like it has about 48-60 hours tops to get going before very strong northerly shear comes in. Of course, it depends too on where Zombie Fred is. A lot can happen in this time frame, do not kid yourselves in to thinking it does not have time to ramp up. We should all know better than that, not saying this will or has to, but it does have time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

I have read books about Tropical History and that it is full with tropical cyclones doing historically bad things in "48 to 60" hour time frame(Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 the worst example). NOT TO SAY THE LEFTOVERS OF "FRED" WILL DO A HISTORICAL BAD THING! ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON ANYTHING IN THE TROPICS THIS TIME OF YEAR. caps off
Very good point and reminder hurricanetrack!

[jlauderdal]

If memory serves, Andrew was a 1016 mb TS just before he exploded (under great conditions)

In the best track it appears as 1015 mb,

1200 21.7 60.7 1015 40 " "

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

at 21/60

[Aric Dunn]

well at least we know its not going North anytime soon.. lol
ridge are building in north and to its west over the next 36 to 48 hours..

ridge is supposed to build in H85 over northern Georgia in 30 hours while the deep layered ridge is holding strong through the period.. if we do get a TS out of this it will likely head west to wsw.. weaker would be more west then wnw..

[jlauderdal]

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

It maybe me but I see a W-NW movement

there is a direct correlation between movement and posters location

[boca]

Yes, it is "Internet sensation: Fred" the guy with a billion YouTube followers. He is behind this.

And topic related, uh, yes that looks like an upper level low west of Fred...wonder how it gets written in to the story?

If this were to develop you would probably travel to your backyard.

[boca]

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

It maybe me but I see a W-NW movement

there is a direct correlation between movement and posters location

I see it moving SW since I'm in S FL. (only kidding)

[wxman57]

Here's a new shot with yellow arrows indicating low cloud movement. Points to a very large, open and weak LLC located NW of the convection. Nothing indicated under the convection. Shear does still appear to be moderate. Western side of the convection is having problems now.

[Blown Away]

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

It maybe me but I see a W-NW movement

there is a direct correlation between movement and posters location

The SNC model always has the same track.

[jaxfladude]

"My Cousin Shear" starring a never dissipating "R"ex Fred!

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a new shot with yellow arrows indicating low cloud movement. Points to a very large, open and weak LLC located NW of the convection. Nothing indicated under the convection. Shear does still appear to be moderate. Western side of the convection is having problems now.

Nope if you look closer you can clearly see cloud lines rotating through your position look farther east .. 74 west..

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a new shot with yellow arrows indicating low cloud movement. Points to a very large, open and weak LLC located NW of the convection. Nothing indicated under the convection. Shear does still appear to be moderate. Western side of the convection is having problems now.

Your missing the low clouds moving SW just to the NW of the latest convection near 30.5/74 there wxman57. Check this link and speed up the animation.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a new shot with yellow arrows indicating low cloud movement. Points to a very large, open and weak LLC located NW of the convection. Nothing indicated under the convection. Shear does still appear to be moderate. Western side of the convection is having problems now.
]

Your missing the low clouds moving SW just to the NW of the latest convection near 30.5/74 there wxman57. Check this link and speed up the animation.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

how did you make that link.. ?? and how did you increase the width of the picture..?

[ronjon]

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

It maybe me but I see a W-NW movement

Ah, you missed my point - SSTs increasing whether moving W or W-NW. Shallow system W-NW - deep system W-SW.

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a new shot with yellow arrows indicating low cloud movement. Points to a very large, open and weak LLC located NW of the convection. Nothing indicated under the convection. Shear does still appear to be moderate. Western side of the convection is having problems now.
]

Your missing the low clouds moving SW just to the NW of the latest convection near 30.5/74 there wxman57. Check this link and speed up the animation.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

how did you make that link.. ?? and how did you increase the width of the picture..?

I stole it from Air Force Met back on page 73, works great!

[Dean4Storms]

I'm seeing a real possibility of an LLC near that latest convection in that loop.