ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Evil Jeremy]

This is it for Fred. I don't think he will make it past the day today. Now we can all get on with our lives lol. Still though, no one ever thought he would make it this far west and have a chance of affecting the US as a tropical system. I am inviting everyone to a Crow eating contest at my place! Just because we all have to eat crow does not mean it can't be fun!

[artist]

This is it for Fred. I don't think he will make it past the day today. Now we can all get on with our lives lol. Still though, no one ever thought he would make it this far west and have a chance of affecting the US as a tropical system. I am inviting everyone to a Crow eating contest at my place! Just because we all have to eat crow does not mean it can't be fun!

completely writing him off when he still has a core?

[Evil Jeremy]

This is it for Fred. I don't think he will make it past the day today. Now we can all get on with our lives lol. Still though, no one ever thought he would make it this far west and have a chance of affecting the US as a tropical system. I am inviting everyone to a Crow eating contest at my place! Just because we all have to eat crow does not mean it can't be fun!

completely writing him off when he still has a core?

That core is not going to be there for much longer.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't call what Fred has a "core", a core meaning heavy convection over an LLC. It's an open swirl of clouds with sheared convection to the northeast.

[artist]

I wouldn't call what Fred has a "core", a core meaning heavy convection over an LLC. It's an open swirl of clouds with sheared convection to the northeast.

thanks wxman. I guess seeing it on that quikscat is what made me think of him as having a core.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't call what Fred has a "core", a core meaning heavy convection over an LLC. It's an open swirl of clouds with sheared convection to the northeast.

thanks wxman. I guess seeing it on that quikscat is what made me think of him as having a core.

That QS image didn't match actual surface obs in the region. I'd trust actual observations over QS any day. A water vapor loop would be good to look at for Fred (and 98L). Look at the WSW-SW wind max that Fred's moving into now.

[Blown Away]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[Sanibel]

Bug spray might have unwanted environmental chemicals. Nature is using dry air and shear for that job.


2009 is a good example of what happens when nature doesn't provide the needed alignment of necessary ingredients for tropical formation.

[emeraldislencguy]

sannibel
what you said makes such good sense and is easy to understand--thanks for putting it in terms that is easy to comprehend without a lot of words
thanks for a job well done !!!

[emeraldislencguy]

I thought I would never say it
"But maybe the season is over!!!"

[wxman57]

Bug spray might have unwanted environmental chemicals. Nature is using dry air and shear for that job.

2009 is a good example of what happens when nature doesn't provide the needed alignment of necessary ingredients for tropical formation.

My Raid anti-TC bug spray is completely environmentally-friendly. That's why it takes so much to be effective.

Yes, we can see that TC development is far more complex than just looking at SSTs and determining whether the water is warm enough for development. The 2009 season is behaving very much as predicted. Little to no activity in the Caribbean and most activity tracking to the north of the Caribbean and/or out to sea. We had one close-in development (Claudette), but it didn't have time to organize before landfall.

I still think we'll see another 2-3 named storms. One could still threaten the NE Gulf, FL, or the Carolinas.

[Recurve]

Is this the first lingering, won't go away system that Wxman has killed with his bare hands?

In the future, we may have to station him and his can of cyclocide in the windwards so he can stop everything coming across the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Is this the first lingering, won't go away system that Wxman has killed with his bare hands?

In the future, we may have to station him and his can of cyclocide in the windwards so he can stop everything coming across the Atlantic.

Generally, I'd prefer a peaceful solution - allowing nature to take care of these systems. But sometimes I have to take matters into my own hands.

[gatorcane]

RIP Fred...

Bones are you coming out?

[Brent]

I wouldn't call what Fred has a "core", a core meaning heavy convection over an LLC. It's an open swirl of clouds with sheared convection to the northeast.

thanks wxman. I guess seeing it on that quikscat is what made me think of him as having a core.

That QS image didn't match actual surface obs in the region. I'd trust actual observations over QS any day. A water vapor loop would be good to look at for Fred (and 98L). Look at the WSW-SW wind max that Fred's moving into now.

Now where was that during Fay last year?

[Emmett_Brown]

Fred is dead. Sort of. If you look at the vis loop, you can still see quite a bit of broad turning, centered at approx 28.5N, 72W. You can see that as the high is building south from New England, it is helping to spin up the ghost of Fred vortex. So, this is more of a synoptic forcing of spin than it is tropical. This often happens in the later half of the 'cane season as fronts move into the tropics... the high to the north bumps up against low pressure to the south.

Not sure if this will bring Fred back from the dead but it is interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously it needs to completely die..

[Blown Away]

It looks to be to late but the shear seems to easing a little.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[OuterBanker]

I think Fred is waiting for the rest of the snowbirds and will join them in Fla at Thanksgiving.