ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[deltadog03]

12z gfdl and hwrf actually show something. Not great, but better than the last runs.

[Nimbus]

The elongated circulation is a bit of a relief since that should mean no real fast development. The convection looks about the same as before dawn, but I gather from all the posts today that ex Fred did not look very healthy much of the day. You wouldn't expect this to open up into just a wave if the convection persists would you?

[Shewtinstar]

I think there was a song about Fred. Dizzy, I'm so dizzy my head is spinning.

[Aric Dunn]

The elongated circulation is a bit of a relief since that should mean no real fast development. The convection looks about the same as before dawn, but I gather from all the posts today that ex Fred did not look very healthy much of the day. You wouldn't expect this to open up into just a wave if the convection persists would you?

yeah it wont open up.. the dynamics are still there at the surface.

and the circ is become more circular again as the trough is finally lifting out.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone know if they are still running models on Fred?

[deltadog03]

yes...EB i posted the hwrf and gfdl from 12z runs in model thread. I do notice that the gfs is starting to build a weak 300mb upper ridge over the bahamas.

[ozonepete]

I do have one prediction.. lol once the sun goes down.. a lot of people are going to say there is no llc or anything and its dead .. but please don't start that tell visible comes back as no matter how good you are at analyzing infrared and shortwave you will not be able to tell exactly where if any a llc of such size is at unless its completely naked.. especially with the cloud debris. one more prediction it takes along time for a vorticity to disperse so at the least the vorticity WILL be around for a couple days yet.

I think we'll see a large blow-up of convection tonight again, and I'm a bit surprised we are seeing blow-up during the peak of diurnal minimum. There is also a noticable twist still in the low-levels. I think ex-Fred has more tricks left. Shear will keep decreasing from here on out based on CIMSS shear tendency charts.

Use this link and you will see the very distinct low-level twist here:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Thanks for that loop, gatorcane. Yeah, you can see it quite easily. The funny part is that the center appears to be between the two "centers" we saw today, roughly 27.5N, 70W. Just the latest trick from Fred...

[BigA]

A motion west wsw should occur here very shortly.

Forgive me if you have already explained this, but what factors do you think will cause the above motion? I agree with your assessment of WSW motion, as the models concur with your statement, but what has led you to this conclusion?

Thank you.

[Blown Away]

Amazing almost the same convection formation for the third time, can't kill the cockroach.

[deltadog03]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Not bad for shear wise either.

[BigA]

Amazing almost the same convection formation for the third time, can't kill the cockroach.

The reason this time might be different is that it is happening near D-min, and because if the system begins its West/WSW motion as Aric and the models indicate, it will for the first time in over 2000 miles be moving into an area of low shear.

[HURAKAN]

Not much movement today

[Aric Dunn]

A motion west wsw should occur here very shortly.

Forgive me if you have already explained this, but what factors do you think will cause the above motion? I agree with your assessment of WSW motion, as the models concur with your statement, but what has led you to this conclusion?

Thank you.

one of my other posts explain it. but in general the exiting trough will be replaced by a build ridge to the south of the east coast which is already occurring and last couple hours a westerly motion seems to be taking place. Also the orientation of the ridge and where our system is such that a west to wsw motion will be likely since Fred is on the SE side of the ridge.

[Steve H.]

Only issue here being that the ridge is causing shear across central Florida currently if you look at the latest visible. I expect this should abate over the next 24 hours.

[wxman57]

That Raid seems to have opened up and dissipated the LLC of old Fred. A very broad, elongated area of low pressure not. Take a look at a WV loop. The NE shear is about to end, but SW shear is right in its path. Could see the convection shift to the north of the low pressure area tonight.

By the way, we won't have to guess TOO much about an LLC tonight. There are a number of surface obs in and around Fred. Central pressure looks to be about 1015mb.

I'll keep my big can of Raid handy.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

That Raid seems to have opened up and dissipated the LLC of old Fred. A very broad, elongated area of low pressure not. Take a look at a WV loop. The NE shear is about to end, but SW shear is right in its path. Could see the convection shift to the north of the low pressure area tonight.

By the way, we won't have to guess TOO much about an LLC tonight. There are a number of surface obs in and around Fred. Central pressure looks to be about 1015mb.

I'll keep my big can of Raid handy.

You're not spraying hard enough!!

[wxman57]

That Raid seems to have opened up and dissipated the LLC of old Fred. A very broad, elongated area of low pressure not. Take a look at a WV loop. The NE shear is about to end, but SW shear is right in its path. Could see the convection shift to the north of the low pressure area tonight.

By the way, we won't have to guess TOO much about an LLC tonight. There are a number of surface obs in and around Fred. Central pressure looks to be about 1015mb.

I'll keep my big can of Raid handy.

You're not spraying hard enough!!

I'm way over here in Houston. Need someone over there in Florida to take over!

[Emmett_Brown]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_060l.gif

Not bad for shear wise either.

Thanks for posting these Delta. Interesting that GFDL and HWRF seem to have shifted a bit to the right, and carry Fred as a minimal TS (assuming that the 55 kt wind at 35 meters qualifies as at the surface)

[gatorcane]

with this recent blow-up of convection, I notice what Wxman is talking about. Seems to not be getting sheared to the south this time..but I don't see all of this SW shear I have heard members mentioned, shear looks rather low in the Bahamas and over FL for the next few days - very typical of mid September.

Also, seems that this blow-up is sustaining a bit more and working over the old LLC area. Should be very interesting tonight I think, when D-MAX over that area kicks in.

I think the plane is going to head out tomorrow.