ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[rrm]

Don't get much better model consensus this this - looks Florida bound. Now the big question, a weak low or tropical cyclone?


https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/PG_GRP_SFWMD_WEATHER/PG_SFWMD_WEATHER_hurricanetropical?_piref2854_19644918_2854_19644915_19644915.tabstring=TAB2202232&_piref2854_19644918_2854_19644915_19644915-2854_19644937_2854_19644920_19644936.tabstring=TAB2200108

why are the models turning slightly southward when they get in the cgom?

[ronjon]

Probably responding to building high pressure latter in the period from the north.

[Emmett_Brown]

Convection still on the increase:

[crownweather]

Anyone else having problems bringing up the SFWMD site and its track model images? Keeps giving me a Page Not Found; 404 error.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I guess it's safe to say NWS Miami and NWS Melbourne don't see eye to eye on where this goes

Yea, that is pretty funny. The reasoning is because the GFS shows deep troughing over the east coast again while the other models show high pressure building in. I guess it comes down to which model they believe in.

[wxman57]

I'm going find a big can of Raid...

Cool. Send it over to recon and see if they can deploy it for you during their flight later today...

I just sprayed it out the front door, seems to have made it to Fred already. Convection blowing away from center. Have to put a load of Raid on the recon plane.

[Thunder44]

This morning's QS pass from NRL, showed a lopsided system. But probably organized enough for the plane to fly today:

[ronjon]

Latest Quikscat at 7:33 am EDT. Closed circulation, TD strength - NHC should reclassify today with RECON.

[Thunder44]

I'm going find a big can of Raid...

Cool. Send it over to recon and see if they can deploy it for you during their flight later today...

I just sprayed it out the front door, seems to have made it to Fred already. Convection blowing away from center. Have to put a load of Raid on the recon plane.

It kind of looks like a cockaroach on satellite too.

[gatorcane]

Convection continues to build it appears. This is also my first time posting from my blackberry

[jinftl]

Certainly developing a more circular appearance...

[Shewtinstar]

That loop makes it look like it's moving SW.

[Stephanie]

I'm going find a big can of Raid...

I'll pack some tonight. I'm heading to the Bahamas tomorrow....

I know it's a chance you take when you book trips there during this time of the year....

[Shewtinstar]

This may be Jacksonville's last shot at some excitement this year. Do you think if we all turned our floor fans on and turned them backwards it would help suck Fred up this way?

[HURAKAN]

This was an internal track projected by the NHC. (NOT A REAL TRACK!)

[gatorcane]

Ireally can't believe ex-fred even has a chance of redeveloping and moving into the bahamas and maybe florida after. Considering it was on a recurve path 3500 miles away two weeks ago.
It also has enough water and time to crank up should it move towards fl since it is 475 miles east of the bahamas.

[IvanSurvivor]

All of my friends and family don't even realize ex Fred is out there still trying to reorganize. The weather channel mentions it, but doesn't really go into detail about it...like here on the forum
Could end up being a mad rush for those in S Florida as well as those of us here in the Fl panhandle that haven't really been paying attention.

[funster]

ex Fred needs to stay that way. Hope the Raid works.

[Derek Ortt]

have restarted the satellite floater on Fred. The first image should be in and new images should be coming in every 30 minutes

[CrazyC83]

It would be named TD Fred, and not TD8 or TD9, correct?