ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[jlauderdal]

I don't think Fred is dead. In fact I expect the pulsing of convection to continue (now we are on a down pulse). I expect a blob to blow up later on tonight closer to the surface low. When I look at shortwave IR, I see a pretty distinct circulation (you can't see it on IR).....upper-level winds are on the decrease also and will be favorable by tomorrow. Dry air is not an issue.

Plus, Fred just never seems to want to die. Just when you think he is dead, he comes back to life. I think that he has another one of those in store later on tonight and into tomorrow.

and if this verifies than watch out because there is no reason to think if there is another increase that there would be conditions to knock it down to a naked swirl

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think Fred is dead. In fact I expect the pulsing of convection to continue (now we are on a down pulse). I expect a blob to blow up later on tonight closer to the surface low. When I look at shortwave IR, I see a pretty distinct circulation (you can't see it on IR).....upper-level winds are on the decrease also and will be favorable by tomorrow. Dry air is not an issue.

Plus, Fred just never seems to want to die. Just when you think he is dead, he comes back to life. I think that he has another one of those in store later on tonight and into tomorrow.

If you look at the loops, the LLC is still there.

yeah the circulation is still very well defined. shows up very well on shortwave..

Since I can't look at loops which way is Fred heading west or WNW?

looks between west and WNW .. probably 275

[boca]

Thanks this computer I'm on stinks. I can't load anything on it due to administative restrictions they put on it.

[IvanSurvivor]

So who's on board with this crossing over into GOM? Any guess on where it might end up if it were to end up in GOM?

[boca]

Florida panhandle if it crosses over.

[Aric Dunn]

So who's on board with this crossing over into GOM? Any guess on where it might end up if it were to end up in GOM?

likely turn north before L.A

[IvanSurvivor]

!*%#

That's just great. I've said it before & I'll say it again...storms with 4 letters in their name scare me. Around here-Erin, Opal, Ivan. Others are Gert, Edna, Hugo, Jose, Luis, Cleo, Inez...

We just had the 5 year anniversary of Ivan on the 16th-Tore Up From The Floor Up!

[expat2carib]

So who's on board with this crossing over into GOM? Any guess on where it might end up if it were to end up in GOM?

On this board, when asking a question like this, you will get a diversity of answers. If you need answered a question like this to ease your own mind keep focussed on the NHC forecast. <30% possibility to develop into a TC within the next 48 hours.

[IvanSurvivor]

Just asking...kinda slow around here.
When it all comes down to it, none of us know where any of these will end up-intensity or location. I was looking for diversity in answers because I don't know anything about anything and just wanted opinions from some that might know a little more than me. My mind is never eased during hurricane season...that's the price we pay to live in paradise!

[jaxfladude]

!*%#

That's just great. I've said it before & I'll say it again...storms with 4 letters in their name scare me. Around here-Erin, Opal, Ivan. Others are Gert, Edna, Hugo, Jose, Luis, Cleo, Inez...

We just had the 5 year anniversary of Ivan on the 16th-Tore Up From The Floor Up!

and for my area of Florida the four letter word is DORA of 1964

[Macrocane]

!*%#

That's just great. I've said it before & I'll say it again...storms with 4 letters in their name scare me. Around here-Erin, Opal, Ivan. Others are Gert, Edna, Hugo, Jose, Luis, Cleo, Inez...

We just had the 5 year anniversary of Ivan on the 16th-Tore Up From The Floor Up!

Other examples: Stan, Rita, Fifi and Dean.

[ozonepete]

Sure looks like a mess, but I agree with what most of you are saying. Fred just won't die. Nobody can really explain it, but we've been fooled too many times to write it off now, especially since overall atmospheric conditions are about to be better than they've been for over a week. Let's just watch and see how it all ends up.

[IvanSurvivor]

You know it's slow when the top 4 topics are not even weather related!

[gatorcane]

Finally starting to see some thunderstorms forming around nearly all sides of the LLC now....though they do not all extend high up into the atmosphere, shear is definitely starting to relax now as they aren't getting blown off to the south as they were earlier.

[wxman57]

The good news is that convection is almost completely gone now. There are no signs of a tightening circulation, something that could generate convergence and more storms. I think it still has a better chance of dissipating than developing, and NHC still agrees with 70+% chance of no further development in their outlook.

[Aric Dunn]

The good news is that convection is almost completely gone now. There are no signs of a tightening circulation, something that could generate convergence and more storms. I think it still has a better chance of dissipating than developing, and NHC still agrees with 70+% chance of no further development in their outlook.

lets see how many time we can write it off.. lol

[Blown Away]

[expat2carib]

The good news is that convection is almost completely gone now. There are no signs of a tightening circulation, something that could generate convergence and more storms. I think it still has a better chance of dissipating than developing, and NHC still agrees with 70+% chance of no further development in their outlook.

Development within the next 48 hours. Nothing about the long..... long live-cycle of this "cockroach"

[wxman57]

The good news is that convection is almost completely gone now. There are no signs of a tightening circulation, something that could generate convergence and more storms. I think it still has a better chance of dissipating than developing, and NHC still agrees with 70+% chance of no further development in their outlook.

Development within the next 48 hours. Nothing about the long..... long live-cycle of this "cockroach"

If it doesn't develop in the next 24-48 hours, then chances should diminish. Looking at a WV loop, I'm not so sure wind shear will drop off in its path as forecast. There is a fair chance this cockroach may die tomorrow. You hear that, Fred?

[perk]

Based on the latest sat presentation it looks like Fred is dead.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

So you determined that Fred is dead on a still satelite shot.