ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 090052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC WED SEP 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED (AL072009) 20090909 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090909 0000 090909 1200 090910 0000 090910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 30.0W 13.6N 32.7W 14.6N 35.3W 15.1N 37.5W
BAMD 12.3N 30.0W 13.3N 32.1W 14.5N 33.7W 15.7N 35.1W
BAMM 12.3N 30.0W 13.2N 32.3W 14.1N 34.3W 14.9N 35.8W
LBAR 12.3N 30.0W 13.5N 32.0W 14.9N 34.2W 16.3N 36.1W
SHIP 65KTS 72KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 65KTS 72KTS 75KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090911 0000 090912 0000 090913 0000 090914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 38.9W 13.6N 40.2W 12.0N 40.7W 10.9N 42.3W
BAMD 17.1N 35.6W 19.6N 33.5W 23.2N 30.5W 27.1N 25.0W
BAMM 15.7N 36.4W 16.2N 35.3W 17.5N 33.5W 20.6N 34.3W
LBAR 17.4N 37.4W 19.9N 38.2W 23.7N 36.3W 29.0N 31.7W
SHIP 72KTS 54KTS 39KTS 25KTS
DSHP 72KTS 54KTS 39KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 25.6W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

[ozonepete]

It made it!

[CrazyC83]

So we now have Hurricane Fred unless they back off.

[cycloneye]

We better wait for the advisory to make it official,but unless there is a big collapse on Freds intensity in the next 2 hours,best track is the big indication or semiofficial that they will upgrade.

[pepeavilenho]

good news otherwise.

[cycloneye]

It is starting the turn to the right.Moving WNW at 290 degrees.

LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

[ozonepete]

And slowing down. All according to forecast so far.

[Bocadude85]

Based on the satellite appearance of Fred and the latest microwave image, I would upgrade Fred to hurricane in the next advisory.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Microwave is pretty convincing. That's not a tropical storm...

Yup fred is looking pretty good right now.. Id say cane by 5am

[cycloneye]

Yup fred is looking pretty good right now.. Id say cane by 5am

You didnt see my post above in this page made at 8:51 PM of best track upgrading to 65kts,meaning if nothing happens in less than 2 hours like a sudden collapse,at 11 PM it will be upgraded.

[Bocadude85]

Yup fred is looking pretty good right now.. Id say cane by 5am

You didnt see my post above in this page made at 8:51 PM of best track upgrading to 65kts,meaning if nothing happens in less than 2 hours like a sudden collapse,at 11 PM it will be upgraded.

Yea cyclone I did not see your post.. guess we will see a cane at 11pm

[caribepr]

Cane at 11, going as predicted to track...excellent, I can go to bed now and wake up to pretty cane pics going to a sea neighborhood not near me.

Life is good.

[ozonepete]

Eye forming? Typically that little pocket of dry air will wobble around until it settles in as the eye feature.

[pepeavilenho]

it reallu looks like







ooo, I'm tired....in spain 4:08 a.m, and I'm just waiting for a hurricane...I know I'm crazy...

[brunota2003]

This thing is probably really gonna hit some significant shear here in a couple days...look at the BAMS and the BAMD! Total opposite directions, this thing will be ripped to shreds!

[O Town]

More like right here according to the best track and the Last 24 hours microwave imagery

[HURAKAN]

987
WTNT32 KNHC 090243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.6N 30.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


826
WTNT42 KNHC 090247
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

THE LATEST FEW INFRARED IMAGES FROM METEOSAT-9 INDICATE THAT FRED
HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OBSERVED IN 1934 UTC
WINDSAT DATA AND 2112 UTC SSM/IS DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
TO -80 C...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS EXPANDING AND BECOMING
MORE AXISYMMETRIC. TWO RECENT AMSU OVERPASSES YIELDED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 68 KT AND 70 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...AND FRED IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.

FRED HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10. THE NARROW RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS NOW BREAKING DOWN DUE TO TWO
SHORTWAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N 37W AND NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...FRED WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE
MODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY
MUCH. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE BOTH CONSISTENTLY
BEEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...AND THEY HAVE DONE
A BETTER JOB THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NOT PULLING FRED NORTHWARD TOO
SOON. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT FRED MIGHT NOT TURN AS
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE SOME SHIFTING TO THE WEST.

FRED APPEARS TO HAVE A CLEAR PATH FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND LOW
SHEAR. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAST STRENGTHENING...
AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS ONLY 21 PERCENT AT THE
MOMENT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO PEAK FRED
AT 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AT
36 HOURS ONCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. SSTS ONLY
DECREASE GRADUALLY NORTH OF FRED...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR
AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN
MODULATING THE INTENSITY BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 12.6N 30.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 13.3N 31.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 33.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.8N 34.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 18.3N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 20.0N 33.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 23.0N 34.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye

[ozonepete]

[pepeavilenho]

now is hurricane

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 12.6N 30.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 13.3N 31.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 33.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.8N 34.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 18.3N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 20.0N 33.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 23.0N 34.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Evil Jeremy]

Eye forming? Typically that little pocket of dry air will wobble around until it settles in as the eye feature.

That is actually the beginning of banding. The eye would be near the red area in that image.