JB

[lonelymike]

What's ol JB been saying lately?

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is at it again with GOM potential later next week in his mornings blog today. Not many details given.

[Lurker]

Where is Ed? He always shared JB's comments regularly. This board seems quiet.

[hurricanetrack]

Basically he foresees a tropical cyclone near Hatteras later this week. Says pattern is ripe for it with lots of parameters in place. Says something to the effect of "one would be looking here with a pattern like that".

Also, he cites the up tick of the SOI recently, and it has, 90 day is near 0 now, with the thought that a favorable MJO pulse will arrive towards the end of the month. This is shown on the CFS output too:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/cfs.gif

Though it is not very pronounced as of yet.

All of that COULD equal another shot of tropical cyclones where people live. Also says that one or two TCs should/could form this week in no-mans land and head on out. I totally buy that, but none will make it past 50W in my opinion- and his.

So take the next 2 weeks off everyone. The tropics are under construction.

[KatDaddy]

Ed is busy over at our local KHOU 11 board posting in detail about Joe B.

http://www.khou.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=35727

[mitchell]

warm core LLC near Hatteras at 10 a.m.

moves NE off the coast into warmer water and then is forced westward inland over the Delmarva or Jersey. 36 hour window to intensify

Gales with 50 mph gusts....

996 mb hurricane a longshot but not impossible.

[vbhoutex]

warm core LLC near Hatteras at 10 a.m.

moves NE off the coast into warmer water and then is forced westward inland over the Delmarva or Jersey. 36 hour window to intensify

Gales with 50 mph gusts....

996 mb hurricane a longshot but not impossible.

If this is from JB then please identify it as such. If it is your forecast please I add a disclaimer. I presume since it is in this thread that it is what JB stated this am?

[george_r_1961]

warm core LLC near Hatteras at 10 a.m.

moves NE off the coast into warmer water and then is forced westward inland over the Delmarva or Jersey. 36 hour window to intensify

Gales with 50 mph gusts....

996 mb hurricane a longshot but not impossible.

I would hope a pro met wouldnt forecast something like this. In my opinion this had some subtropical characteristics yesterday but sattelite imagery now shows a badly sheared system and with 30kt SW winds aloft that isnt surprising. And its moving into an area even more hostile.

[cpdaman]

He said 996 mb hurricane (i.e 75 mph cat 1 a very looong shot) but not impossible.

It is moving over the gulf stream as we speak.....organization looks like a sheared weak tropical storm to me....over 85 F gulf stream but big storms are poppin NE of LLC

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[HURAKAN]

Except that it's not tropical. That's the key.

[wxman57]

Numerous obs indicate max winds in the 25 kt range currently. This is the big hurricane he'd predicted would become of Erika once it hit the Bahamas Sunday. He's really hung up on it being tropical, though it appears more like a frontal low (like last September's storm that he also claimed was tropical). JB has always had a tremendously strong East U.S. Coast bias for hits.

[hurricanetrack]

And it has a front trailing off of it as well. Clearly still part of the frontal system and what not. However, what was the whole sub-tropical thing about that went in to effect a few years ago? Why would this not even be classified as a sub-tropical storm? It's not tropical so it must be sub-tropical- or is it? This is where I can stand to learn something from those with deeper knowledge bases than mine.

[wxman57]

And it has a front trailing off of it as well. Clearly still part of the frontal system and what not. However, what was the whole sub-tropical thing about that went in to effect a few years ago? Why would this not even be classified as a sub-tropical storm? It's not tropical so it must be sub-tropical- or is it? This is where I can stand to learn something from those with deeper knowledge bases than mine.

I think you could make a good argument for a subtropical depression (not storm yet, as winds aren't there). Possibly an STS tomorrow. But the NHC apparently has decided not to classify it.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC makes it clear in the TWO that the low pressure is non-tropical, meaning extratropical. If that's the case, then it will be very difficult for the system to attain tropical characteristics with the convection hundreds of miles away.

[cpdaman]

perhaps it can move another 75 miles ENE and 1. stay over GS 2. reach an enviornement where shear is about 30% less

i would bet winds 50-75 miles northeast of bouy 41025 has 30 knot winds in the area...

[lonelymike]

JB gets a little over enthusiatic sometimes (ie:hype) but he recognizes patterns pretty well. Misses a lot on the details but is worth watching and respecting.

[attallaman]

I haven't seen JB on any Accuweather free tropical weather updates lately, is he on vacation?

[mitchell]

warm core LLC near Hatteras at 10 a.m.

moves NE off the coast into warmer water and then is forced westward inland over the Delmarva or Jersey. 36 hour window to intensify

Gales with 50 mph gusts....

996 mb hurricane a longshot but not impossible.

If this is from JB then please identify it as such. If it is your forecast please I add a disclaimer. I presume since it is in this thread that it is what JB stated this am?

Sorry for being unclear...yes those were JB excerpts from 10 a.m. yesterday morning...hes backed off somewhat today.