11 am Model Maps - Invest 90L

[Stormsfury]

I really think the NW movement is being a little overdone by the tropical models ... as again, alluded to in another thread, the GFS may be overdoing the digging ... one other wildcard is an area located around 31ºN, 60ºW (looks like an ULL) which appears to be moving slowly W. That may try to interfere with 90L ... but if 90L outraces that area, on the SW'ern side of the ULL, there may be a s/w ridge that pokes up out of that, and that may drive 90L a little further west than that is being progged.

[Guest]

I can't believe this one came back from the dead. Looked like she was gaining - but then this after she's retreating a little.

VI, PR and Florida are in line for this one.

[Stephanie]

I can't believe it either Ticka. She's one tough little cookie! I don't think we've seen a CV storm track towards the EC in a while either. Most of the past storms have headed into the Caribbean and then on to the GOM.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes, this could be interesting if it does go ahead and develope. the 5 day plus period will feature a weakness near the East Coast and a ridge trying to build back late in the week-end? we will see but maybe we will have something to talk about this week:):)

[Stormsfury]

Latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles supports a retrogression of the Bermuda High and the Plains Dome to consolidate around the 10th-12th of August ...

[Rainband]

English please stormfury

[Stormsfury]

Latest ensemble means are supporting an idea of building the Bermuda High in the MR through retrogression (building westward). The idea of the ensembles are joining of the Bermuda High and the ridge currently in place over the Central States ... the general idea is to say ... "Bye, Bye .. East Coast Trough"

SF

[Steve H.]

I think what he means is that the high pressure ridge could bridge across the east coast, in essence re-enforcing the ridge and allowing the wave to come further westward. Certainly time will tell, but could make things interesting. Not trying to compare (but I will), Andrew made it to a position well north of Puerto Rico before being nudged WNW by a ridge, then W, and WSW as a result of high pressure building in from the NW. This wave is moving rather slowly so anything is possible, but what concerns me is when a system gets a ridge to bridge across it to the north, a system can find itself in a great environment for strengthening. We saw this with Mitch also, which was a classic, but a system of different origin and a "heat Ridge" that bridged to its north. That provided an excellent environment for intensification. Certainly not in this set of circumstances, and I mention it only because it shows the influence a strong ridge can have on a system. If it moves slowly the ridge will build in over next weekend. Cheers!!

[ColdFront77]

This situation does bear watching. There is apparently some sort of circulation with 90L that keeps flaring up, so there is no way we should discount any potential for convection to develop around a surface low.

[grentz7721]

Looks like 90L will be worth watching. South Carolina could be in for
another named storm.