Impressive wave about to exit Africa

[Tropics Guy]

Should be code yellow soon!

[vbhoutex]

If it holds that circulation and the convection we may get to watch a strong fish storm through its' entire development.

[Gustywind]

The tropics are quiet

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1311

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:11 GMT le 06 septembre 2009

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

[somethingfunny]

Any other year this would scare the crap out of me. But the basin-wide shot shows three other waves...ex-Erika, the central Atlantic mess, and 95L....that would have been locks for development as well in any other year. So instead I'll sit and wait and maybe check back in with it around Wednesday to see what's happened.

[Frank2]

This morning Steve Lyons (TWC) said that without the current El Nino conditions it's possible that we'd have at least 2 or 3 cyclones on the map at this time, considering the well-organized waves that have moved into the Atlantic over the past few days (he mentioned shear as the main factor)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Latest loop.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

ABNT20 KNHC 061745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

b]
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA...ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Is invest 96L.Thread is locked.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions about this system there.