ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

A cat has nine lives and Erika has (had) at least 9 LLC. Lets see when all of them die.

[wxman57]

18Z intermediate just out has 16.6N/64.7W as the center. That's the naked swirl on my map above. Didn't take recon to find it. Now they can downgrade it to a remnant low.

Yes, but recon shows that it is still closed off.

There's also a requirement of at least some convection near the center. And for a TS, there still is a requirement that the system be producing TS force sustained wind.

[cycloneye]

This for sure will be downgraded at 5 PM to a TD.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031807
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 11 20090903
175700 1554N 06523W 9765 00280 0082 +245 +125 330006 006 011 000 00
175730 1552N 06524W 9761 00283 0081 +245 +125 331006 006 012 000 00
175800 1551N 06526W 9765 00280 0082 +245 +124 330006 006 015 000 03
175830 1551N 06527W 9762 00283 0083 +245 +124 338005 005 007 001 00
175900 1550N 06528W 9762 00283 0083 +245 +124 344005 005 016 000 00
175930 1549N 06530W 9764 00281 0083 +245 +124 350005 005 012 000 00
180000 1548N 06531W 9762 00281 0081 +245 +123 353005 006 011 000 00
180030 1547N 06532W 9762 00281 0080 +245 +123 355005 005 012 000 00
180100 1546N 06533W 9764 00280 0080 +245 +123 359005 005 009 000 00
180130 1545N 06535W 9761 00281 0080 +245 +123 001005 005 015 000 03
180200 1544N 06536W 9761 00281 0080 +245 +123 002005 005 011 000 00
180230 1543N 06537W 9762 00280 0080 +245 +123 002005 005 014 000 00
180300 1542N 06539W 9762 00280 0080 +245 +123 006005 006 010 000 00
180330 1541N 06540W 9761 00283 0081 +245 +123 005006 006 013 000 03
180400 1540N 06541W 9763 00280 0080 +245 +123 008006 006 013 000 00
180430 1539N 06542W 9764 00279 0079 +245 +123 010006 007 007 000 00
180500 1537N 06543W 9764 00280 0079 +246 +124 015006 007 008 000 00
180530 1536N 06545W 9771 00274 0080 +247 +124 030006 007 004 002 03
180600 1537N 06546W 9756 00287 0081 +245 +124 040006 007 003 001 03
180630 1537N 06548W 9764 00280 0082 +245 +124 044007 007 006 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

This is sad.... Im done watching this till tomorrow maybe lol

models have done absolutely nothing right ..lol

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm, or could she be reforming near Guadeloupe. The llc is certainly seperating itself from the convection and if that is what she is based on then she's a goner. But maybe the mid levels are trying to reform. Let's not write her off yet. Maybe that's what the models are seeing. Otherwise the gfdl and hrwf don't make any sense. Let's renenber even those models wrote off Ericka 18z yesterday (I was suprised to see them back today).

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Here is the naked swirl south of ST Croix on radar.Dry swirl.

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED ERIKA
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...


I guess she lives for at least a few more hours, i remember the noname storm about 8 years ago in sofla, was a bigger event than any cane that was in our vicinty in the last ten years.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031816
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 12 20090903
180700 1538N 06549W 9763 00281 0082 +245 +124 041007 007 006 000 00
180730 1539N 06551W 9764 00280 0082 +245 +123 040007 008 009 000 00
180800 1539N 06551W 9764 00280 0082 +245 +123 041007 008 007 000 00
180830 1540N 06554W 9762 00283 0082 +245 +122 043006 007 007 001 00
180900 1541N 06555W 9761 00283 0081 +245 +122 042006 006 009 000 00
180930 1541N 06557W 9750 00292 0082 +245 +121 047007 007 007 002 00
181000 1542N 06558W 9764 00281 0083 +245 +121 049007 007 017 000 00
181030 1543N 06600W 9762 00283 0082 +245 +121 052007 008 010 001 00
181100 1544N 06602W 9763 00283 0083 +245 +121 051007 008 017 000 03
181130 1545N 06603W 9761 00285 0083 +245 +121 059007 008 009 001 03
181200 1546N 06604W 9763 00283 0083 +245 +121 069005 006 999 999 03
181230 1548N 06604W 9762 00283 0083 +245 +121 076005 005 015 000 00
181300 1550N 06604W 9764 00284 0084 +245 +121 074006 006 018 000 03
181330 1552N 06604W 9762 00285 0085 +245 +121 072006 006 999 999 03
181400 1553N 06604W 9764 00284 0086 +245 +121 067005 006 999 999 03
181430 1555N 06604W 9762 00286 0086 +245 +121 067006 006 999 999 03
181500 1557N 06605W 9763 00285 0086 +245 +122 070005 006 999 999 03
181530 1559N 06605W 9763 00284 0085 +245 +122 080004 005 999 999 03
181600 1601N 06605W 9764 00284 0084 +245 +122 086004 005 999 999 03
181630 1603N 06605W 9762 00284 0083 +245 +122 086005 005 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[caribepr]

I cannot wait. Sorry for everyone else down here, but I need more rain for my stuff.

NOTE: I don't mean I want a hurricane or whatnot, i'm talking about this convective mass of rain.

I'm with you on wanting the rain leftovers for the gardens and cisterns. We'll take those as an alternative anytime!

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031826
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 13 20090903
181700 1604N 06605W 9764 00280 0082 +245 +122 079005 005 999 999 03
181730 1606N 06605W 9762 00283 0082 +245 +123 087004 004 999 999 03
181800 1608N 06605W 9762 00280 0081 +245 +123 084004 005 999 999 03
181830 1610N 06605W 9764 00279 0080 +245 +123 079006 006 999 999 03
181900 1612N 06605W 9762 00281 0080 +245 +123 077006 006 999 999 03
181930 1613N 06605W 9762 00280 0080 +245 +123 075007 007 999 999 03
182000 1615N 06605W 9765 00278 0081 +245 +123 070008 009 999 999 03
182030 1617N 06604W 9766 00276 0081 +245 +124 067008 008 999 999 03
182100 1619N 06604W 9761 00283 0081 +245 +124 061007 008 015 001 00
182130 1620N 06603W 9764 00280 0081 +245 +124 065008 009 016 001 00
182200 1622N 06602W 9763 00280 0081 +245 +124 062007 008 020 000 03
182230 1623N 06602W 9762 00281 0081 +245 +124 062007 008 018 000 00
182300 1625N 06601W 9763 00280 0080 +245 +124 064008 008 016 000 00
182330 1627N 06600W 9763 00280 0080 +243 +124 060008 009 018 000 00
182400 1628N 06559W 9762 00279 0079 +241 +124 056009 009 018 000 00
182430 1630N 06559W 9763 00279 0079 +243 +124 058010 010 017 001 00
182500 1631N 06558W 9764 00279 0080 +242 +124 063010 010 021 000 00
182530 1633N 06557W 9761 00281 0080 +243 +124 067010 010 019 000 00
182600 1635N 06556W 9763 00279 0079 +244 +124 071011 011 018 000 00
182630 1636N 06555W 9762 00280 0079 +245 +124 068011 012 019 000 00

[x-y-no]

I guess she lives for at least a few more hours, i remember the noname storm about 8 years ago in sofla, was a bigger event than any cane that was in our vicinty in the last ten years.

Bigger than Wilma? No way ...

Not even bigger than Katrina, if you consider the amount of damage she did in the Coral Gables/South Miami/West Miami area.

[cycloneye]

No surprise the downgrade by best track to TD.

AL, 06, 2009090318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 647W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

[Emmett_Brown]

Good lower level convergence continues along the top of the wave axis, so look for more convection to fire. At least it will be something to look at, even if it is just convection:

[mascpa]

Then you must be surprised that NHC is still classifying it as a tropical storm ???

[BatzVI]

At this point, I don't think we're going to get much more rain than what we already received....nothing more than a typical summer shower is what it looks like....