ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

'CaneFreak · #3381 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:00 pm

So where is it on that image Aric? Is it the one entering the Caribbean Sea?

Aric Dunn · #3382 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:00 pm

Steve H. wrote:The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a dying spinoff. The broad circulation is off to the NE, around where vacanechaser & aric said. That's where the burst of convection is coming from. Considering her environment, I don't think she looks half bad. If she is indeed off at the NE fix, she may stay north of PR.

umm.. no i said the vortex to the SW will slowly take over.

jabber · #3383 Postby **jabber** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:00 pm

Sanibel wrote:
jabber wrote:Thats an old picture..... last current was 18:45 UTC

Either SSD or my computer is caching images and not refreshing. Most frustrating.

Mines doing the same......

Aric Dunn · #3384 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:00 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:So where is it on that image Aric? Is it the one entering the Caribbean Sea?

yes the one in the carrib..

'CaneFreak · #3385 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:01 pm

YouTube · #3386 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:02 pm

Anyone think this is like Debby in 2000 to some extent? Watkins just emailed me that wonderful sentiment. Erika does not look like it will last through the week based on models and reality. Oh well, just par for the course this season I suppose. At least most of the agencies forecasting a below normal season will be able to stand tall and proclaim how right they were. So there should be some good press there in a few months.

YouTube · #3387 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:03 pm

What is an FD? Is that the same as an HWRF F/S :-)

'CaneFreak · #3388 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:03 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:What is an FD? Is that the same as an HWRF F/S

LOL...I changed my mind about my post and could not delete it...LOL...

#3389 Postby **srainhoutx** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
jasons wrote:
wxman57 wrote:We're adjusting our track farther south on the advisory we're about to issue. Taking it just south of PR and into the SE DR, probably weakening to a TD over northern DR Saturday. And if the shear is as forecast beyond Saturday, then as a remnant low heading for south FL.

From everything I have digested today (here and elsewhere) this is very close to what I am thinking as well. In fact, I just emailed a map created by another pro met saying "this is more what I'm thinking" - the only differnce is that map is a tad south of yours even (not much)...
Of course that begs the question "then what" but honestly I don't even want to think about that yet.

Ha! We have to make a 7-day track. And it's going out in the next 30 minutes or less.

Hopefully the "team" is working a correct solution. :ggreen:

You folks are earning your money with this one.

#3390 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:04 pm

Another overnight burst wouldn't surprise me. Anyone else?

#3391 Postby **lonelymike** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:04 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:This storm isn't the one that will worry GOM'ers. Just wait for this monster coming off of Africa that won't recurve! 2 week EURO is nasty......

Now back to E

Oh yeah got any scientific proof to back up that statement?

Derek Ortt · #3392 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:04 pm

as I said before, http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html no messing with java or flash and the loops update.

I am not sure what SSD is doing that is causing the loops not to update (this morning, they wouldnt even loop for me)

vacanechaser · #3393 Postby **vacanechaser** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:04 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:What is an FD? Is that the same as an HWRF F/S

haha... maybe... it is sure looking that way

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Aric Dunn · #3394 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:06 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Anyone think this is like Debby in 2000 to some extent? Watkins just emailed me that wonderful sentiment. Erika does not look like it will last through the week based on models and reality. Oh well, just par for the course this season I suppose. At least most of the agencies forecasting a below normal season will be able to stand tall and proclaim how right they were. So there should be some good press there in a few months.

yeah and we know what happened to debbie.. lol

Wx_Warrior · #3395 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:08 pm

Nope, just a EURO model that you have to pay for.

#3396 Postby **OuterBanker** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:09 pm

Geeze, I think it is choose your vortex time. I must stop looking at the visables and infrareds, my brain is full.

I think I'll come back tommorow and see if Erika still exists

Sanibel · #3397 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:10 pm

If that new burst at 17.8N-59.5W is the center it will grow and show us where it is. If so it is above the islands.

andyis · #3398 Postby **andyis** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:10 pm

Wx_Warrior could you please post that 2 week euro, can't find my model page at the moment?

BatzVI · #3399 Postby **BatzVI** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:10 pm

More understandable now why no watches have been posted for us....

knotimpaired · #3400 Postby **knotimpaired** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:11 pm

Personally I think Erika is a bit Bipolar. If she takes her meds she may make up her mind

ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

Who is online