ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 021938
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 21 20090902
192830 1516N 05751W 8432 01585 0124 +165 +132 190025 025 028 001 00
192900 1518N 05750W 8429 01590 0124 +162 +133 189024 025 027 001 00
192930 1520N 05750W 8435 01583 0126 +160 +134 188025 026 026 001 00
193000 1521N 05750W 8429 01588 0127 +160 +134 190026 026 026 001 00
193030 1523N 05749W 8429 01590 0125 +160 +134 195025 026 026 003 00
193100 1525N 05749W 8425 01595 0128 +160 +134 192025 026 026 002 03
193130 1527N 05749W 8430 01588 0127 +160 +134 184025 025 025 003 03
193200 1529N 05750W 8429 01588 0126 +160 +134 184025 025 027 001 00
193230 1530N 05750W 8432 01587 0126 +160 +134 185025 026 027 001 00
193300 1532N 05751W 8432 01586 0126 +160 +134 181025 025 027 000 00
193330 1534N 05752W 8430 01590 0127 +160 +134 178025 026 027 001 00
193400 1536N 05752W 8425 01591 0127 +157 +134 178025 025 029 000 00
193430 1537N 05753W 8432 01587 0127 +160 +133 178025 026 027 001 00
193500 1539N 05753W 8429 01589 0127 +160 +133 179025 025 027 001 00
193530 1541N 05754W 8429 01590 0127 +160 +133 181025 025 029 000 00
193600 1543N 05754W 8432 01589 0127 +160 +133 180025 025 027 002 00
193630 1544N 05755W 8427 01591 0128 +160 +133 176023 023 025 002 03
193700 1546N 05756W 8430 01587 0127 +159 +133 175023 024 027 001 00
193730 1548N 05757W 8427 01591 0128 +155 +133 176024 024 028 001 00
193800 1549N 05757W 8429 01591 0129 +156 +133 173024 024 029 000 00
$$

[thetruesms]

I've been staring at that spot you pointed out for a few minutes, and I think after long enough, I was able to spot a couple frames that looked like there was rotation there. Pretty sure that it was just my brain making something so I could move on, though But there is definitely a little blowup of convection there, that much is obvious.

these homemade maps some of you(not all) guys do really rule and im not being sarcastic, i would rather look at these all day long versus radar loops and IR loops, tells me more than all of that other stuff

I love the quick MS Paint jobs - they convey a lot of info pretty quickly, and sometimes can put forth a thought better than some words.

but the recon is doing vortex data messages further north... not this low... so are they blind, or flying with their eyes closed??? i mean I just dont get this... if the message is coming back saying there is something there, wouldnt you think that they are finding something there???? just thought i would ask...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Flying blind might be a bit strong, but I'm pretty sure that their fixes are limited to data they collect, and there is the potential that it may conflict with other sources of info.

[Frank2]

I stopped questioning that after Hurricane David (1979) crossed the Hispanola coast as a strong Category 4 and emerged a TS, 24 hours later - those 10,000' mountains are rough on hurricanes...

P.S. Tomorrow is the 30th anniversary of that crossing, in fact...

[HURAKAN]

[AtlanticWind]

New center may be forming near 17 and 61 ,would be about the 15th center to form

[Aric Dunn]

Well the vort has bottomed out and the momentum transfered to both the vort west Guadalupe and too the other vort ne of what should become the center .. maybe..

the vorticity for the one west has increased and is beginning to fire convection right on the circulation as was expected in my earlier post. Since we have shifted the momentum again we should see the complete collapse of the vorts east of the islands over the next couple hours ( maybe) and the vort to the west ( main one ?? ) will soon absorb the others especially if convection increases around the one in the eastern carrib.

only time will tell i guess.. i just got out of class and have missed the past hour.

by the way anyone have a free online animation site that you can upload more than 9 images. ??

[fd122]

Well Antigua is north of Guadeloupe and has been with NE winds all afternoon.That means,there is another center more east of the naked one just SW of the butterfly island.

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda 
(TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Conditions at  Sep 02, 2009 - 03:00 PM EDTSep 02, 2009 - 02:00 PM CDTSep 02, 2009 - 01:00 PM MDTSep 02, 2009 - 12:00 PM PDTSep 02, 2009 - 11:00 AM ADTSep 02, 2009 - 10:00 AM HDT
2009.09.02 1900 UTC 
Wind  from the NE (050 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Weather  Showers in the vicinity 
Temperature  86 F (30 C) 
Heat index  96.8 F (36.0 C) 
Dew Point  77 F (25 C) 
Relative Humidity  74% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa) 
ob  TAPA 021900Z 05015KT 9999 VCSH SCT020 BKN260 30/25 Q1010 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 


Yeah it's been blowing pretty steadily from the NE here so far. Seas are a bit rough and murky too.

[wxman57]

New surface plot/satellite. Not a lot of obs on this one, but the 15kt southerly wind at Guadeloupe southwest of the NHC 18Z position would suggest that there is no center near 16.4N/61.3W. I think the center is the vortex SW of Guadeloupe. Just can't fine any other evidence of rotation.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Erika9.gif

but the recon is doing vortex data messages further north... not this low... so are they blind, or flying with their eyes closed??? i mean I just dont get this... if the message is coming back saying there is something there, wouldnt you think that they are finding something there???? just thought i would ask...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I'm sure they see the vortex, but they're trying to find out if there is any other center farther east. Like I said, there could be an elliptical center with one focus at the vortex SW of Guadeloupe and another just NE of Guadeloupe where the plane flew. But I just don't see any evidence on satellite or in surface obs of a 2nd center NE of Guadeloupe. Maybe they're just stubborn?

Regardless, it makes very little difference in the grand scheme of things just where the center is placed. This will be a big rainmaker for the NE Caribbean for the next 48 hours. A little bit of wind mixed in, but nothing extreme. No hurricane for the NE Caribbean.

We're adjusting our track farther south on the advisory we're about to issue. Taking it just south of PR and into the SE DR, probably weakening to a TD over northern DR Saturday. And if the shear is as forecast beyond Saturday, then as a remnant low heading for south FL.

[jabber]

Still has black IR energy. If you follow the new bursts it looks like the center was the Guadeloupe center and it dipped SW:

Thats an old picture..... last current was 18:45 UTC

[Aric Dunn]

also the low level clouds around the vort to the west have thickened which typically means a substantial burst of convection is about to occur.

[Blown Away]

Right or wrong that's the way I see it!

[wxman57]

Well Antigua is north of Guadeloupe and has been with NE winds all afternoon.That means,there is another center more east of the naked one just SW of the butterfly island.

Actually, a NE wind at Antigua fits perfectly with a vortex SW of Guadeloupe. See below:

[deltadog03]

Mid SHEAR looks like it might** be slowly going down. Looks like its down to around 10kts ish... on the NW side.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 021949
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 22 20090902
193830 1551N 05758W 8432 01589 0128 +156 +133 169024 024 029 001 00
193900 1553N 05759W 8429 01590 0128 +160 +132 167023 023 028 001 00
193930 1554N 05800W 8424 01597 0128 +159 +132 167024 024 029 000 00
194000 1556N 05801W 8434 01587 0128 +160 +131 171024 024 028 002 00
194030 1558N 05802W 8427 01594 0129 +159 +131 172024 024 030 000 00
194100 1559N 05803W 8430 01590 0129 +157 +132 168024 025 031 000 00
194130 1601N 05804W 8430 01591 0130 +156 +132 168025 026 030 001 00
194200 1603N 05804W 8424 01597 0132 +155 +132 166026 028 030 001 00
194230 1604N 05805W 8436 01582 0131 +155 +132 172027 029 031 001 00
194300 1606N 05806W 8429 01588 0131 +153 +132 173028 029 030 002 00
194330 1608N 05807W 8431 01588 0130 +154 +132 176029 029 032 001 00
194400 1609N 05808W 8432 01590 0130 +154 +132 172028 029 031 001 00
194430 1611N 05809W 8426 01592 0131 +155 +131 173028 029 031 002 00
194500 1613N 05810W 8422 01598 0131 +152 +131 170030 032 031 002 00
194530 1614N 05811W 8438 01580 0129 +155 +131 175030 032 032 002 00
194600 1616N 05812W 8439 01577 0128 +154 +131 171030 031 035 001 00
194630 1617N 05813W 8421 01598 0128 +155 +131 172032 033 035 000 00
194700 1619N 05814W 8431 01586 0130 +153 +131 171030 031 036 000 03
194730 1621N 05815W 8433 01584 0130 +152 +131 167029 029 036 000 03
194800 1622N 05816W 8431 01588 0130 +152 +131 171030 031 035 000 00

[HURAKAN]

[jasons2k]

We're adjusting our track farther south on the advisory we're about to issue. Taking it just south of PR and into the SE DR, probably weakening to a TD over northern DR Saturday. And if the shear is as forecast beyond Saturday, then as a remnant low heading for south FL.

From everything I have digested today (here and elsewhere) this is very close to what I am thinking as well. In fact, I just emailed a map created by another pro met saying "this is more what I'm thinking" - the only differnce is that map is a tad south of yours even (not much)...but it's the same general idea: south of PR, across Hispaniola, then (if anything is left) maybe just touching the Eastern tip of Cuba, then towards S FL.
Of course that begs the question "then what" but honestly I don't even want to think about that yet.

[wxman57]

We're adjusting our track farther south on the advisory we're about to issue. Taking it just south of PR and into the SE DR, probably weakening to a TD over northern DR Saturday. And if the shear is as forecast beyond Saturday, then as a remnant low heading for south FL.

From everything I have digested today (here and elsewhere) this is very close to what I am thinking as well. In fact, I just emailed a map created by another pro met saying "this is more what I'm thinking" - the only differnce is that map is a tad south of yours even (not much)...
Of course that begs the question "then what" but honestly I don't even want to think about that yet.

Ha! We have to make a 7-day track. And it's going out in the next 30 minutes or less.

[Aric Dunn]

well i figured out how to add more frames.. latest radar loop 18 images.. will keep adding more as they come.....

there is pretty much no evidence on radar of a circ east of the islands.. surface obs as wxman57 has said support the vortex west as well as satellite supports the vort the west..

[Sanibel]

Thats an old picture..... last current was 18:45 UTC

Either SSD or my computer is caching images and not refreshing. Most frustrating.

[Steve H.]

The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a dying spinoff. The broad circulation is off to the NE, around where vacanechaser & aric said. That's where the burst of convection is coming from. Considering her environment, I don't think she looks half bad. If she is indeed off at the NE fix, she may stay north of PR.