ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 021918
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 19 20090902
190830 1428N 05829W 8425 01598 0132 +160 +133 180021 022 026 000 03
190900 1430N 05830W 8430 01590 0130 +160 +133 181022 022 026 002 00
190930 1432N 05830W 8428 01592 0129 +160 +133 185021 022 028 000 00
191000 1433N 05830W 8429 01591 0129 +160 +133 188021 021 026 002 00
191030 1435N 05830W 8431 01592 0128 +160 +133 188021 021 027 001 00
191100 1437N 05830W 8428 01593 0129 +161 +132 189021 022 026 001 00
191130 1439N 05830W 8433 01589 0131 +160 +132 187022 022 025 001 00
191200 1441N 05830W 8426 01596 0132 +160 +132 186021 021 025 002 00
191230 1443N 05830W 8428 01593 0132 +159 +132 185021 022 025 001 03
191300 1444N 05829W 8433 01590 0132 +160 +131 189020 021 025 001 00
191330 1446N 05829W 8428 01596 0133 +160 +131 191020 020 027 000 03
191400 1448N 05828W 8428 01593 0132 +160 +131 193021 021 025 001 00
191430 1450N 05828W 8433 01590 0132 +160 +131 193021 022 026 001 00
191500 1451N 05827W 8429 01594 0132 +159 +131 192022 023 027 001 00
191530 1453N 05827W 8433 01589 0131 +156 +131 192023 024 028 000 00
191600 1455N 05826W 8425 01594 0131 +155 +130 190024 024 028 000 00
191630 1457N 05825W 8432 01588 0132 +155 +130 190025 026 032 000 00
191700 1458N 05825W 8434 01587 0130 +157 +129 193025 025 033 000 03
191730 1500N 05824W 8430 01589 0128 +160 +130 198025 025 033 000 00
191800 1502N 05823W 8433 01586 0128 +160 +130 197026 026 033 001 00

[HURAKAN]

[otowntiger]

I was wondering if I was reading the recon page right. Does it say that the winds are now over 60kt ? I was just looking at the site and that is what I thought the last photo was showing. If this is true then she is strengthening am I right or am I reading it wrong. If someone answers my question, Thanks in advance.

Typically recon samples "flight level" winds. That is winds at like 10,000 feet. These winds are usually much stronger than those at the surface (which is what the storm is rated). Usually they use something like 80% of flight level winds equal surface wind, so 60kt *0.8 = 48kt, so not quite 50kts.

That's still some decent wind considering the disorganization we see right now. That's one thing this storm has never seemed to lack: Wind. Just not from the right directions and in the right places.

[vacanechaser]

New surface plot/satellite. Not a lot of obs on this one, but the 15kt southerly wind at Guadeloupe southwest of the NHC 18Z position would suggest that there is no center near 16.4N/61.3W. I think the center is the vortex SW of Guadeloupe. Just can't fine any other evidence of rotation.

but the recon is doing vortex data messages further north... not this low... so are they blind, or flying with their eyes closed??? i mean I just dont get this... if the message is coming back saying there is something there, wouldnt you think that they are finding something there???? just thought i would ask...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[caribepr]

Glad as ever to catch up after just sailing in to see what people think Elusive Erika might be doing...

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html I think I see a circulation at 59.7 and 15.1 looks like it wants to go south.

[Weatherboy1]

That vortex to the SW of Guadeloupe sure is looking sickly on the high-res visible imagery. I wonder if this thing going to collapse to an open wave soon, albeit one with very strong gale-force winds in the associated thunderstorms.

[Wx_Warrior]

This storm isn't the one that will worry GOM'ers. Just wait for this monster coming off of Africa that won't recurve! 2 week EURO is nasty......

Now back to E

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 021928
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 20 20090902
191830 1504N 05823W 8429 01589 0128 +160 +130 199026 027 034 001 03
191900 1505N 05821W 8421 01597 0128 +160 +130 203026 026 033 002 03
191930 1505N 05819W 8433 01583 0123 +162 +130 203025 025 035 002 00
192000 1505N 05818W 8431 01588 0124 +159 +130 206026 027 035 004 00
192030 1505N 05816W 8430 01588 0128 +155 +129 204027 027 034 005 00
192100 1505N 05814W 8427 01589 0125 +157 +128 203025 026 033 004 00
192130 1505N 05812W 8433 01582 0124 +158 +126 201025 026 029 006 00
192200 1506N 05810W 8425 01591 0123 +161 +125 203023 024 027 006 00
192230 1506N 05809W 8430 01584 0120 +163 +124 208023 024 029 004 00
192300 1506N 05807W 8434 01581 0121 +164 +124 212021 022 028 004 00
192330 1506N 05805W 8432 01583 0122 +165 +124 210023 023 029 004 00
192400 1506N 05803W 8430 01591 0122 +165 +124 211022 022 027 005 03
192430 1507N 05802W 8433 01584 0121 +169 +125 210022 022 028 003 00
192500 1507N 05800W 8429 01590 0122 +166 +125 205022 022 026 003 00
192530 1508N 05758W 8428 01592 0126 +165 +127 200022 023 023 002 03
192600 1509N 05757W 8429 01589 0125 +165 +128 203022 023 025 001 00
192630 1510N 05755W 8430 01589 0123 +169 +128 204024 025 025 001 00
192700 1511N 05754W 8429 01590 0124 +163 +129 199025 025 027 000 00
192730 1513N 05753W 8429 01590 0125 +165 +131 198024 025 023 002 03
192800 1514N 05752W 8424 01593 0123 +165 +131 195024 025 024 002 03

[AtlanticWind]

What are the conditons if this enters the central carribean?

[knotimpaired]

Glad as ever to catch up after just sailing in to see what people think Elusive Erika might be doing...

Welcome back. Just in time. You stayed a little longer than you thought

[Sanibel]

The structure is still elongated. That's why there's SSE readings at that buoy.


Looks like there's more of a ridge than detected if the system is flattened and driven south into the Caribbean. (Or is it a surface flow dominating steering?)


I doubt we'll have much to post about until this gets out over open water. But then it will probably be sheared away by that point.

[HURAKAN]

[vacanechaser]

That vortex to the SW of Guadeloupe sure is looking sickly on the high-res visible imagery. I wonder if this thing going to collapse to an open wave soon, albeit one with very strong gale-force winds in the associated thunderstorms.

see, my thought is that recon is finding another low further northeast of this one... i believe if you look at the movement of this southerly low, it is moving around a larger envelope .. meaning this is just one of probably several low centers.. this thing is still fighting itself and dry air... just my thoughts...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

Hurricane Charley (2004) was a completely different system - even I was worried about that one from the start:

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-charley-2004

[otowntiger]

Glad as ever to catch up after just sailing in to see what people think Elusive Erika might be doing...

Anyone know what happened to KWT, our Brittish friend? He was on here frequently in days past with lots of good insight.

[Blown Away]

Convection building along the NE quadrant. The LLC has to be near 16N/62W, if that is not the LLC it confirms I know nothing about the tropics.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Well Antigua is north of Guadeloupe and has been with NE winds all afternoon.That means,there is another center more east of the naked one just SW of the butterfly island.

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda 
(TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M 

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Conditions at  Sep 02, 2009 - 03:00 PM EDTSep 02, 2009 - 02:00 PM CDTSep 02, 2009 - 01:00 PM MDTSep 02, 2009 - 12:00 PM PDTSep 02, 2009 - 11:00 AM ADTSep 02, 2009 - 10:00 AM HDT
2009.09.02 1900 UTC 
Wind  from the NE (050 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Weather  Showers in the vicinity 
Temperature  86 F (30 C) 
Heat index  96.8 F (36.0 C) 
Dew Point  77 F (25 C) 
Relative Humidity  74% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa) 
ob  TAPA 021900Z 05015KT 9999 VCSH SCT020 BKN260 30/25 Q1010 

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[Sanibel]

Still has black IR energy. If you follow the new bursts it looks like the center was the Guadeloupe center and it dipped SW:

[HouTXmetro]

EDIT: Pro met explain the latest EURO to me: EURO dissiaptes it over Puerto Rico and those Mountainous Islands...

A lot of models now dissapating Erika. Most of them have busted on the track big time. Goes to show Mother Nature has a mind of her own and can't be predicted.