Sadly its looking like it won't, will stay to far south and east. Arizona will see most of the rain, but I guess if they only see a shower or two it will be better than nothing at all.
EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
802
WTPZ33 KNHC 011152
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA HEADING TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 110.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 011152
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA HEADING TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 110.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
0 likes
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145270
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : HURRICANE JIMENA - RECON
Hey Jan,plane is on route. 
URNT15 KNHC 011145
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 16 20090901
113530 2629N 09914W 3597 08385 0458 -215 -243 279020 021 999 999 03
113600 2627N 09916W 3597 08386 0458 -215 -244 282020 020 999 999 03
113630 2626N 09918W 3597 08388 0460 -215 -246 283020 020 999 999 03
113700 2624N 09920W 3597 08386 0459 -215 -247 281020 020 999 999 03
113730 2622N 09922W 3597 08384 0458 -215 -247 279020 020 999 999 03
113800 2621N 09924W 3595 08388 0458 -215 -253 281019 020 999 999 03
113830 2619N 09927W 3597 08385 0458 -215 -247 281018 018 999 999 03
113900 2617N 09929W 3597 08386 0459 -215 -245 282018 018 999 999 03
113930 2616N 09931W 3597 08388 0460 -215 -244 284017 017 999 999 03
114000 2614N 09933W 3597 08388 0461 -215 -238 275015 016 999 999 03
114030 2612N 09935W 3597 08388 0461 -215 -242 257014 014 999 999 03
114100 2611N 09937W 3597 08390 0462 -215 -246 254014 014 999 999 03
114130 2609N 09939W 3597 08390 0462 -215 -250 254014 014 999 999 03
114200 2607N 09941W 3598 08389 0463 -215 -238 246013 013 999 999 03
114230 2606N 09943W 3599 08384 0463 -212 -239 248013 013 999 999 03
114300 2604N 09945W 3597 08391 0464 -215 -242 248013 013 999 999 03
114330 2602N 09947W 3597 08391 0464 -215 -242 250013 014 999 999 03
114400 2601N 09949W 3595 08393 0464 -215 -249 250011 012 999 999 03
114430 2559N 09951W 3596 08393 0465 -215 -247 248011 012 999 999 03
114500 2557N 09953W 3597 08393 0465 -215 -245 247011 011 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 011145
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 16 20090901
113530 2629N 09914W 3597 08385 0458 -215 -243 279020 021 999 999 03
113600 2627N 09916W 3597 08386 0458 -215 -244 282020 020 999 999 03
113630 2626N 09918W 3597 08388 0460 -215 -246 283020 020 999 999 03
113700 2624N 09920W 3597 08386 0459 -215 -247 281020 020 999 999 03
113730 2622N 09922W 3597 08384 0458 -215 -247 279020 020 999 999 03
113800 2621N 09924W 3595 08388 0458 -215 -253 281019 020 999 999 03
113830 2619N 09927W 3597 08385 0458 -215 -247 281018 018 999 999 03
113900 2617N 09929W 3597 08386 0459 -215 -245 282018 018 999 999 03
113930 2616N 09931W 3597 08388 0460 -215 -244 284017 017 999 999 03
114000 2614N 09933W 3597 08388 0461 -215 -238 275015 016 999 999 03
114030 2612N 09935W 3597 08388 0461 -215 -242 257014 014 999 999 03
114100 2611N 09937W 3597 08390 0462 -215 -246 254014 014 999 999 03
114130 2609N 09939W 3597 08390 0462 -215 -250 254014 014 999 999 03
114200 2607N 09941W 3598 08389 0463 -215 -238 246013 013 999 999 03
114230 2606N 09943W 3599 08384 0463 -212 -239 248013 013 999 999 03
114300 2604N 09945W 3597 08391 0464 -215 -242 248013 013 999 999 03
114330 2602N 09947W 3597 08391 0464 -215 -242 250013 014 999 999 03
114400 2601N 09949W 3595 08393 0464 -215 -249 250011 012 999 999 03
114430 2559N 09951W 3596 08393 0465 -215 -247 248011 012 999 999 03
114500 2557N 09953W 3597 08393 0465 -215 -245 247011 011 999 999 03
$$
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
Best Track 12z:
EP, 13, 2009090112, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1105W, 130, 933
EP, 13, 2009090112, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1105W, 130, 933
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URPN15 KNHC 011245
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 22 20090901
123530 2416N 10411W 3594 08406 0475 -207 -245 220013 013 999 999 03
123600 2415N 10414W 3598 08399 0474 -206 -249 217012 013 999 999 03
123630 2414N 10416W 3594 08408 0476 -210 -250 217012 013 999 999 03
123700 2413N 10419W 3594 08408 0475 -206 -249 215012 013 999 999 03
123730 2412N 10421W 3598 08400 0474 -205 -254 213014 014 999 999 03
123800 2411N 10424W 3594 08407 0475 -205 -250 216014 014 999 999 03
123830 2410N 10427W 3594 08405 0474 -205 -245 217015 015 999 999 03
123900 2409N 10429W 3595 08402 0473 -205 -245 216015 015 999 999 03
123930 2408N 10432W 3595 08402 0473 -205 -246 219015 015 999 999 03
124000 2407N 10434W 3595 08402 0473 -205 -243 215015 015 999 999 03
124030 2405N 10437W 3595 08403 0474 -205 -246 210015 016 999 999 03
124100 2404N 10439W 3594 08407 0475 -205 -249 206016 016 999 999 03
124130 2403N 10441W 3595 08403 0475 -205 -254 206017 017 999 999 03
124200 2401N 10444W 3594 08406 0474 -205 -255 201016 017 999 999 03
124230 2400N 10446W 3595 08402 0472 -205 -258 199015 016 999 999 03
124300 2359N 10449W 3594 08403 0471 -205 -268 196015 016 999 999 03
124330 2357N 10451W 3596 08397 0469 -202 -264 195015 016 999 999 03
124400 2356N 10453W 3593 08403 0469 -205 -259 195015 015 999 999 03
124430 2355N 10456W 3598 08393 0468 -205 -255 196014 015 999 999 03
124500 2353N 10458W 3593 08403 0468 -205 -247 195013 014 999 999 03
$$
;
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 22 20090901
123530 2416N 10411W 3594 08406 0475 -207 -245 220013 013 999 999 03
123600 2415N 10414W 3598 08399 0474 -206 -249 217012 013 999 999 03
123630 2414N 10416W 3594 08408 0476 -210 -250 217012 013 999 999 03
123700 2413N 10419W 3594 08408 0475 -206 -249 215012 013 999 999 03
123730 2412N 10421W 3598 08400 0474 -205 -254 213014 014 999 999 03
123800 2411N 10424W 3594 08407 0475 -205 -250 216014 014 999 999 03
123830 2410N 10427W 3594 08405 0474 -205 -245 217015 015 999 999 03
123900 2409N 10429W 3595 08402 0473 -205 -245 216015 015 999 999 03
123930 2408N 10432W 3595 08402 0473 -205 -246 219015 015 999 999 03
124000 2407N 10434W 3595 08402 0473 -205 -243 215015 015 999 999 03
124030 2405N 10437W 3595 08403 0474 -205 -246 210015 016 999 999 03
124100 2404N 10439W 3594 08407 0475 -205 -249 206016 016 999 999 03
124130 2403N 10441W 3595 08403 0475 -205 -254 206017 017 999 999 03
124200 2401N 10444W 3594 08406 0474 -205 -255 201016 017 999 999 03
124230 2400N 10446W 3595 08402 0472 -205 -258 199015 016 999 999 03
124300 2359N 10449W 3594 08403 0471 -205 -268 196015 016 999 999 03
124330 2357N 10451W 3596 08397 0469 -202 -264 195015 016 999 999 03
124400 2356N 10453W 3593 08403 0469 -205 -259 195015 015 999 999 03
124430 2355N 10456W 3598 08393 0468 -205 -255 196014 015 999 999 03
124500 2353N 10458W 3593 08403 0468 -205 -247 195013 014 999 999 03
$$
;
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
If there is any good news is that Baja California Sur is the least populated state in Mexico
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Me ... population
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SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
Honestly a track near the coast or a track up the Baja sea to the AZ/CA border would probably bring a cat-1 conditions to the California and Arizona. It has happened before, several times. Los Angelas was hit with a strong tropical storm in the 30's. And you never know these days, I mean look at where vince formed the varouis tropical systems that managed to form in the mediteranean.
A tropical storm or Cat 1 on long beach would be a miracle if it happens. It would be welcomed
A tropical storm or Cat 1 on long beach would be a miracle if it happens. It would be welcomed
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Considering the wildfire situation in Los Angeles right now, it might not be a bad thing to see Jimena go west of forecast points and bring some much-needed moisture to the area as a remnant low. I think a lot of people would gladly trade the increased mudslide risk 2ish inches of rain would bring for some fire supression at this point.
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TheEuropean
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1796
- Age: 59
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
- Location: Voerde, Germany
- Contact:
000
URPN15 KNHC 011255
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 23 20090901
124530 2352N 10501W 3594 08398 0467 -205 -251 195013 014 999 999 03
124600 2351N 10503W 3596 08395 0466 -205 -256 201010 010 999 999 03
124630 2349N 10505W 3593 08401 0467 -206 -250 200011 011 999 999 03
124700 2348N 10508W 3598 08392 0467 -210 -249 198011 012 999 999 03
124730 2347N 10510W 3595 08397 0467 -210 -245 195012 013 999 999 03
124800 2345N 10513W 3593 08403 0467 -210 -244 195013 013 999 999 03
124830 2344N 10515W 3597 08392 0466 -210 -246 195013 013 999 999 03
124900 2343N 10518W 3595 08397 0467 -210 -251 198013 013 999 999 03
124930 2341N 10520W 3595 08397 0467 -207 -253 198014 014 999 999 03
125000 2340N 10522W 3594 08397 0466 -210 -245 197014 014 999 999 03
125030 2339N 10525W 3594 08399 0466 -210 -246 193014 014 999 999 03
125100 2337N 10527W 3595 08394 0465 -210 -243 189012 013 999 999 03
125130 2336N 10530W 3595 08394 0466 -205 -253 196012 012 999 999 03
125200 2334N 10532W 3595 08394 0465 -205 -261 191011 012 999 999 03
125230 2333N 10535W 3595 08397 0466 -205 -254 188012 012 999 999 03
125300 2332N 10537W 3595 08396 0466 -201 -264 190012 013 999 999 03
125330 2330N 10539W 3594 08398 0466 -202 -259 191013 014 999 999 03
125400 2329N 10542W 3594 08398 0466 -200 -263 190014 015 999 999 03
125430 2328N 10544W 3594 08397 0466 -202 -267 194016 018 999 999 03
125500 2326N 10547W 3597 08392 0466 -205 -238 198018 018 999 999 03
000
URPN15 KNHC 011305
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 24 20090901
125530 2325N 10549W 3596 08391 0464 -205 -242 193015 015 999 999 03
125600 2324N 10551W 3594 08396 0463 -205 -233 195017 018 999 999 03
125630 2322N 10554W 3596 08391 0462 -205 -248 200019 020 999 999 03
125700 2321N 10556W 3595 08392 0462 -205 -278 197020 021 999 999 03
125730 2320N 10558W 3594 08394 0463 -208 -287 193019 019 999 999 03
125800 2318N 10601W 3594 08393 0462 -207 -266 187018 019 999 999 03
125830 2317N 10603W 3595 08389 0461 -206 -291 189020 020 999 999 03
125900 2316N 10606W 3596 08388 0461 -205 -306 190019 019 999 999 03
125930 2314N 10608W 3595 08393 0462 -202 -298 192018 019 999 999 03
130000 2313N 10610W 3593 08397 0461 -203 -283 188020 021 999 999 03
130030 2312N 10613W 3597 08386 0460 -201 -291 187020 020 999 999 03
130100 2310N 10615W 3594 08393 0460 -204 -292 184022 022 999 999 03
130130 2309N 10617W 3596 08386 0458 -200 -319 184023 023 999 999 03
130200 2307N 10619W 3599 08380 0458 -200 -329 183022 023 999 999 03
130230 2305N 10621W 3591 08398 0460 -200 -326 181021 021 999 999 03
130300 2303N 10622W 3594 08392 0459 -200 -316 181022 022 999 999 03
130330 2301N 10624W 3597 08386 0458 -200 -327 184022 023 999 999 03
130400 2259N 10626W 3593 08392 0458 -200 -344 183023 023 999 999 03
130430 2257N 10627W 3598 08383 0458 -199 -325 182022 022 999 999 03
130500 2255N 10629W 3599 08383 0462 -199 -298 180023 023 999 999 03
000
URPN15 KNHC 011315
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 25 20090901
130530 2253N 10631W 3599 08375 0453 -200 -228 177024 025 999 999 03
130600 2251N 10633W 3601 08372 0450 -199 -222 172027 028 999 999 03
130630 2249N 10634W 3598 08375 0446 -196 -227 174028 030 999 999 03
130700 2247N 10636W 3601 08371 0446 -196 -218 184024 025 999 999 03
130730 2245N 10638W 3600 08376 0449 -196 -221 190024 026 999 999 03
130800 2243N 10639W 3601 08385 0465 -193 -246 190028 029 999 999 03
130830 2241N 10641W 3598 08398 0473 -192 -276 190028 029 999 999 03
130900 2239N 10643W 3601 08396 0475 -193 -245 187027 027 999 999 03
130930 2237N 10644W 3601 08399 0477 -188 -278 183027 027 999 999 03
131000 2235N 10646W 3598 08398 0475 -189 -290 183026 026 999 999 03
131030 2233N 10648W 3602 08396 0476 -190 -250 181025 026 999 999 03
131100 2231N 10649W 3598 08401 0478 -190 -277 180026 026 018 002 00
131130 2229N 10651W 3601 08400 0479 -190 -264 180027 028 017 003 00
131200 2227N 10653W 3599 08400 0480 -189 -250 179029 029 024 001 00
131230 2225N 10654W 3601 08400 0481 -190 -259 181029 029 023 002 00
131300 2224N 10656W 3601 08404 0482 -190 -246 183029 029 028 000 00
131330 2222N 10658W 3600 08401 0482 -195 -248 184027 028 029 002 00
131400 2220N 10659W 3601 08404 0483 -192 -220 186027 029 031 002 00
131430 2218N 10701W 3599 08406 0481 -190 -243 181027 028 031 003 00
131500 2216N 10703W 3599 08403 0483 -190 -235 176027 027 031 002 00
URPN15 KNHC 011255
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 23 20090901
124530 2352N 10501W 3594 08398 0467 -205 -251 195013 014 999 999 03
124600 2351N 10503W 3596 08395 0466 -205 -256 201010 010 999 999 03
124630 2349N 10505W 3593 08401 0467 -206 -250 200011 011 999 999 03
124700 2348N 10508W 3598 08392 0467 -210 -249 198011 012 999 999 03
124730 2347N 10510W 3595 08397 0467 -210 -245 195012 013 999 999 03
124800 2345N 10513W 3593 08403 0467 -210 -244 195013 013 999 999 03
124830 2344N 10515W 3597 08392 0466 -210 -246 195013 013 999 999 03
124900 2343N 10518W 3595 08397 0467 -210 -251 198013 013 999 999 03
124930 2341N 10520W 3595 08397 0467 -207 -253 198014 014 999 999 03
125000 2340N 10522W 3594 08397 0466 -210 -245 197014 014 999 999 03
125030 2339N 10525W 3594 08399 0466 -210 -246 193014 014 999 999 03
125100 2337N 10527W 3595 08394 0465 -210 -243 189012 013 999 999 03
125130 2336N 10530W 3595 08394 0466 -205 -253 196012 012 999 999 03
125200 2334N 10532W 3595 08394 0465 -205 -261 191011 012 999 999 03
125230 2333N 10535W 3595 08397 0466 -205 -254 188012 012 999 999 03
125300 2332N 10537W 3595 08396 0466 -201 -264 190012 013 999 999 03
125330 2330N 10539W 3594 08398 0466 -202 -259 191013 014 999 999 03
125400 2329N 10542W 3594 08398 0466 -200 -263 190014 015 999 999 03
125430 2328N 10544W 3594 08397 0466 -202 -267 194016 018 999 999 03
125500 2326N 10547W 3597 08392 0466 -205 -238 198018 018 999 999 03
000
URPN15 KNHC 011305
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 24 20090901
125530 2325N 10549W 3596 08391 0464 -205 -242 193015 015 999 999 03
125600 2324N 10551W 3594 08396 0463 -205 -233 195017 018 999 999 03
125630 2322N 10554W 3596 08391 0462 -205 -248 200019 020 999 999 03
125700 2321N 10556W 3595 08392 0462 -205 -278 197020 021 999 999 03
125730 2320N 10558W 3594 08394 0463 -208 -287 193019 019 999 999 03
125800 2318N 10601W 3594 08393 0462 -207 -266 187018 019 999 999 03
125830 2317N 10603W 3595 08389 0461 -206 -291 189020 020 999 999 03
125900 2316N 10606W 3596 08388 0461 -205 -306 190019 019 999 999 03
125930 2314N 10608W 3595 08393 0462 -202 -298 192018 019 999 999 03
130000 2313N 10610W 3593 08397 0461 -203 -283 188020 021 999 999 03
130030 2312N 10613W 3597 08386 0460 -201 -291 187020 020 999 999 03
130100 2310N 10615W 3594 08393 0460 -204 -292 184022 022 999 999 03
130130 2309N 10617W 3596 08386 0458 -200 -319 184023 023 999 999 03
130200 2307N 10619W 3599 08380 0458 -200 -329 183022 023 999 999 03
130230 2305N 10621W 3591 08398 0460 -200 -326 181021 021 999 999 03
130300 2303N 10622W 3594 08392 0459 -200 -316 181022 022 999 999 03
130330 2301N 10624W 3597 08386 0458 -200 -327 184022 023 999 999 03
130400 2259N 10626W 3593 08392 0458 -200 -344 183023 023 999 999 03
130430 2257N 10627W 3598 08383 0458 -199 -325 182022 022 999 999 03
130500 2255N 10629W 3599 08383 0462 -199 -298 180023 023 999 999 03
000
URPN15 KNHC 011315
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 25 20090901
130530 2253N 10631W 3599 08375 0453 -200 -228 177024 025 999 999 03
130600 2251N 10633W 3601 08372 0450 -199 -222 172027 028 999 999 03
130630 2249N 10634W 3598 08375 0446 -196 -227 174028 030 999 999 03
130700 2247N 10636W 3601 08371 0446 -196 -218 184024 025 999 999 03
130730 2245N 10638W 3600 08376 0449 -196 -221 190024 026 999 999 03
130800 2243N 10639W 3601 08385 0465 -193 -246 190028 029 999 999 03
130830 2241N 10641W 3598 08398 0473 -192 -276 190028 029 999 999 03
130900 2239N 10643W 3601 08396 0475 -193 -245 187027 027 999 999 03
130930 2237N 10644W 3601 08399 0477 -188 -278 183027 027 999 999 03
131000 2235N 10646W 3598 08398 0475 -189 -290 183026 026 999 999 03
131030 2233N 10648W 3602 08396 0476 -190 -250 181025 026 999 999 03
131100 2231N 10649W 3598 08401 0478 -190 -277 180026 026 018 002 00
131130 2229N 10651W 3601 08400 0479 -190 -264 180027 028 017 003 00
131200 2227N 10653W 3599 08400 0480 -189 -250 179029 029 024 001 00
131230 2225N 10654W 3601 08400 0481 -190 -259 181029 029 023 002 00
131300 2224N 10656W 3601 08404 0482 -190 -246 183029 029 028 000 00
131330 2222N 10658W 3600 08401 0482 -195 -248 184027 028 029 002 00
131400 2220N 10659W 3601 08404 0483 -192 -220 186027 029 031 002 00
131430 2218N 10701W 3599 08406 0481 -190 -243 181027 028 031 003 00
131500 2216N 10703W 3599 08403 0483 -190 -235 176027 027 031 002 00
0 likes
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SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
Re:
yzerfan wrote:Considering the wildfire situation in Los Angeles right now, it might not be a bad thing to see Jimena go west of forecast points and bring some much-needed moisture to the area as a remnant low. I think a lot of people would gladly trade the increased mudslide risk 2ish inches of rain would bring for some fire supression at this point.
The fire outside of LA is the size of rhode island and the state is so broke trying to fight it. There are no winds which believe it or not is making it harder cause firelines are useless if there are no winds
0 likes
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TheEuropean
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1796
- Age: 59
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
- Location: Voerde, Germany
- Contact:
000
URPN15 KNHC 011325
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 26 20090901
131530 2214N 10704W 3598 08412 0483 -190 -233 173029 029 031 001 00
131600 2212N 10706W 3601 08405 0483 -190 -215 171029 030 032 002 00
131630 2210N 10708W 3599 08400 0482 -189 -227 171030 030 032 003 00
131700 2208N 10709W 3598 08401 0480 -187 -266 170030 030 033 003 00
131730 2206N 10711W 3602 08393 0481 -192 -250 172032 033 033 003 00
131800 2204N 10713W 3599 08402 0481 -190 -235 172032 034 033 003 00
131830 2202N 10714W 3601 08400 0482 -190 -221 170035 036 034 002 00
131900 2200N 10716W 3601 08402 0482 -190 -216 167034 035 037 002 00
131930 2158N 10717W 3601 08404 0480 -191 -211 166034 035 038 005 00
132000 2156N 10719W 3599 08407 0481 -191 -221 166034 034 039 003 00
132030 2154N 10721W 3601 08399 0479 -192 -215 167035 037 039 003 00
132100 2152N 10722W 3599 08404 0479 -191 -225 168033 034 038 003 00
132130 2150N 10724W 3598 08405 0477 -195 -212 169033 034 036 002 00
132200 2148N 10726W 3601 08400 0479 -191 -236 167032 032 038 000 00
132230 2146N 10727W 3600 08403 0480 -195 -253 168032 033 035 002 00
132300 2145N 10729W 3601 08395 0478 -194 -295 169032 033 034 002 00
132330 2143N 10731W 3600 08399 0479 -194 -289 170033 034 034 003 00
132400 2141N 10732W 3600 08396 0476 -195 -284 170032 032 035 003 00
132430 2139N 10734W 3599 08398 0476 -195 -257 175033 034 034 004 00
132500 2137N 10736W 3599 08399 0478 -193 -227 178033 034 033 002 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011335
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 27 20090901
132530 2135N 10737W 3598 08402 0478 -195 -260 178037 038 033 003 00
132600 2133N 10739W 3599 08402 0477 -194 -295 178038 038 032 002 00
132630 2131N 10740W 3599 08396 0477 -190 -314 175036 037 031 002 00
132700 2129N 10742W 3601 08401 0479 -189 -284 172035 036 032 003 00
132730 2127N 10744W 3599 08404 0479 -190 -301 178038 038 032 005 00
132800 2125N 10745W 3601 08397 0477 -189 -359 181039 040 036 005 00
132830 2123N 10747W 3598 08402 0477 -190 -360 178040 041 031 011 00
132900 2122N 10749W 3599 08400 0478 -192 -288 173040 040 036 003 00
132930 2120N 10751W 3598 08401 0477 -188 -337 173039 040 038 009 00
133000 2118N 10752W 3602 08398 0476 -186 -363 174038 038 042 013 00
133030 2116N 10754W 3601 08397 0477 -186 -356 173037 037 044 011 00
133100 2114N 10756W 3645 08305 0473 -183 -324 174036 037 040 009 00
133130 2112N 10758W 3707 08176 0465 -172 -398 174036 036 035 003 00
133200 2110N 10759W 3746 08111 0460 -165 -470 175035 036 034 003 00
133230 2109N 10801W 3785 08024 0454 -162 -482 174033 034 034 004 00
133300 2107N 10803W 3823 07931 0437 -157 -300 177034 036 032 003 00
133330 2105N 10805W 3862 07854 0424 -153 -249 179035 035 027 003 00
133400 2103N 10807W 3900 07783 0419 -145 -239 184035 036 029 003 00
133430 2101N 10809W 3930 07721 0412 -143 -258 184035 037 028 003 00
133500 2059N 10810W 3961 07661 0409 -144 -261 185038 039 029 002 00
URPN15 KNHC 011325
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 26 20090901
131530 2214N 10704W 3598 08412 0483 -190 -233 173029 029 031 001 00
131600 2212N 10706W 3601 08405 0483 -190 -215 171029 030 032 002 00
131630 2210N 10708W 3599 08400 0482 -189 -227 171030 030 032 003 00
131700 2208N 10709W 3598 08401 0480 -187 -266 170030 030 033 003 00
131730 2206N 10711W 3602 08393 0481 -192 -250 172032 033 033 003 00
131800 2204N 10713W 3599 08402 0481 -190 -235 172032 034 033 003 00
131830 2202N 10714W 3601 08400 0482 -190 -221 170035 036 034 002 00
131900 2200N 10716W 3601 08402 0482 -190 -216 167034 035 037 002 00
131930 2158N 10717W 3601 08404 0480 -191 -211 166034 035 038 005 00
132000 2156N 10719W 3599 08407 0481 -191 -221 166034 034 039 003 00
132030 2154N 10721W 3601 08399 0479 -192 -215 167035 037 039 003 00
132100 2152N 10722W 3599 08404 0479 -191 -225 168033 034 038 003 00
132130 2150N 10724W 3598 08405 0477 -195 -212 169033 034 036 002 00
132200 2148N 10726W 3601 08400 0479 -191 -236 167032 032 038 000 00
132230 2146N 10727W 3600 08403 0480 -195 -253 168032 033 035 002 00
132300 2145N 10729W 3601 08395 0478 -194 -295 169032 033 034 002 00
132330 2143N 10731W 3600 08399 0479 -194 -289 170033 034 034 003 00
132400 2141N 10732W 3600 08396 0476 -195 -284 170032 032 035 003 00
132430 2139N 10734W 3599 08398 0476 -195 -257 175033 034 034 004 00
132500 2137N 10736W 3599 08399 0478 -193 -227 178033 034 033 002 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011335
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 27 20090901
132530 2135N 10737W 3598 08402 0478 -195 -260 178037 038 033 003 00
132600 2133N 10739W 3599 08402 0477 -194 -295 178038 038 032 002 00
132630 2131N 10740W 3599 08396 0477 -190 -314 175036 037 031 002 00
132700 2129N 10742W 3601 08401 0479 -189 -284 172035 036 032 003 00
132730 2127N 10744W 3599 08404 0479 -190 -301 178038 038 032 005 00
132800 2125N 10745W 3601 08397 0477 -189 -359 181039 040 036 005 00
132830 2123N 10747W 3598 08402 0477 -190 -360 178040 041 031 011 00
132900 2122N 10749W 3599 08400 0478 -192 -288 173040 040 036 003 00
132930 2120N 10751W 3598 08401 0477 -188 -337 173039 040 038 009 00
133000 2118N 10752W 3602 08398 0476 -186 -363 174038 038 042 013 00
133030 2116N 10754W 3601 08397 0477 -186 -356 173037 037 044 011 00
133100 2114N 10756W 3645 08305 0473 -183 -324 174036 037 040 009 00
133130 2112N 10758W 3707 08176 0465 -172 -398 174036 036 035 003 00
133200 2110N 10759W 3746 08111 0460 -165 -470 175035 036 034 003 00
133230 2109N 10801W 3785 08024 0454 -162 -482 174033 034 034 004 00
133300 2107N 10803W 3823 07931 0437 -157 -300 177034 036 032 003 00
133330 2105N 10805W 3862 07854 0424 -153 -249 179035 035 027 003 00
133400 2103N 10807W 3900 07783 0419 -145 -239 184035 036 029 003 00
133430 2101N 10809W 3930 07721 0412 -143 -258 184035 037 028 003 00
133500 2059N 10810W 3961 07661 0409 -144 -261 185038 039 029 002 00
0 likes
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bob rulz
- Category 5
- Posts: 1704
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Re: Re:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Honestly a track near the coast or a track up the Baja sea to the AZ/CA border would probably bring a cat-1 conditions to the California and Arizona. It has happened before, several times. Los Angelas was hit with a strong tropical storm in the 30's. And you never know these days, I mean look at where vince formed the varouis tropical systems that managed to form in the mediteranean.
A tropical storm or Cat 1 on long beach would be a miracle if it happens. It would be welcomed
Even if it tracks up the Gulf of California at the perfect angle, it wouldn't likely make it that far inland as a hurricane. The best anyone in Arizona and California can expect from this system is rain and you're fooling yourself if you think anyone in the U.S. is going to get a hurricane out of this.
And I don't see how you would think that cat 1 conditions would be "welcomed" in Long Beach. Rain, sure, but not 75mph winds. Even a category 1 hurricane would likely do a lot of damage to Los Angeles...
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srainhoutx
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- Contact:
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vegastar
- Category 1
- Posts: 320
- Age: 49
- Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:13 am
- Location: Trofa, Portugal (41.33º N 8.55º W)
Re: EPAC : HURRICANE JIMENA - RECON
URPN15 KNHC 011345
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 28 20090901
133530 2057N 10812W 3986 07614 0405 -144 -268 182039 039 028 003 00
133600 2055N 10814W 4016 07553 0398 -140 -236 185038 039 027 003 00
133630 2053N 10816W 4061 07470 0393 -140 -159 181037 037 028 003 00
133700 2051N 10818W 4109 07378 0387 -133 -165 178038 038 029 002 00
133730 2049N 10820W 4148 07310 0381 -126 -160 177038 038 030 002 00
133800 2047N 10821W 4178 07250 0376 -120 -167 179039 039 029 002 00
133830 2045N 10823W 4215 07182 0372 -116 -184 183037 038 029 002 00
133900 2043N 10825W 4296 07041 0366 -108 -163 189037 038 030 002 00
133930 2041N 10827W 4401 06857 0355 -097 -207 194036 036 030 002 00
134000 2039N 10829W 4527 06652 0350 -087 -163 200036 036 031 001 00
134030 2037N 10831W 4653 06439 0338 -075 -105 201035 036 031 002 03
134100 2035N 10833W 4840 06141 0322 -055 -205 196039 040 999 999 03
134130 2034N 10835W 5020 05841 0295 -035 -290 192039 039 024 002 03
134200 2033N 10837W 5212 05535 0270 -024 -148 190041 043 999 999 03
134230 2032N 10839W 5462 05166 0244 -019 -059 188042 043 999 999 03
134300 2031N 10842W 5738 04763 0056 +010 -093 181043 044 999 999 03
134330 2030N 10844W 6010 04392 0049 +037 -080 177047 048 999 999 03
134400 2028N 10845W 6267 04053 0062 +052 -043 179045 046 035 003 03
134430 2027N 10846W 6441 03823 0077 +053 +020 179042 042 035 003 00
134500 2025N 10848W 6647 03564 0079 +067 +033 175045 046 034 003 00
$$
URPN15 KNHC 011355
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 29 20090901
134530 2024N 10849W 6870 03289 0072 +085 +055 176044 045 033 004 00
134600 2023N 10850W 6965 03170 0068 +095 +062 180043 044 033 005 00
134630 2021N 10851W 6965 03172 0071 +090 +068 177043 043 035 006 00
134700 2020N 10852W 6967 03169 0067 +093 +063 177044 044 035 007 00
134730 2019N 10853W 6967 03167 0066 +095 +050 179044 045 033 007 00
134800 2017N 10854W 6969 03164 0070 +090 +061 178044 045 033 008 00
134830 2016N 10855W 6964 03167 0073 +087 +061 177044 045 032 008 00
134900 2014N 10856W 6967 03163 0069 +088 +060 178046 046 030 009 00
134930 2013N 10857W 6966 03163 0066 +091 +059 178046 046 030 007 00
135000 2012N 10858W 6967 03165 0064 +095 +042 181045 046 031 006 00
135030 2010N 10859W 6966 03170 0063 +096 +050 188045 046 030 006 00
135100 2009N 10900W 6966 03164 0062 +098 +040 190044 044 030 007 00
135130 2008N 10901W 6967 03164 0058 +100 +044 190043 044 032 007 00
135200 2006N 10902W 6970 03162 0056 +101 +040 186041 042 032 007 00
135230 2005N 10903W 6966 03163 0056 +099 +036 182041 041 033 007 00
135300 2004N 10905W 6967 03160 0057 +098 +047 180041 042 033 007 00
135330 2002N 10906W 6972 03158 0061 +095 +059 183044 045 033 008 00
135400 2001N 10907W 6963 03168 0069 +088 +064 181043 044 033 009 00
135430 1959N 10908W 6982 03145 0079 +080 +079 186044 044 033 009 00
135500 1958N 10909W 6970 03156 0062 +090 +072 186045 046 033 008 00
$$
Now at operacional altitude.
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 28 20090901
133530 2057N 10812W 3986 07614 0405 -144 -268 182039 039 028 003 00
133600 2055N 10814W 4016 07553 0398 -140 -236 185038 039 027 003 00
133630 2053N 10816W 4061 07470 0393 -140 -159 181037 037 028 003 00
133700 2051N 10818W 4109 07378 0387 -133 -165 178038 038 029 002 00
133730 2049N 10820W 4148 07310 0381 -126 -160 177038 038 030 002 00
133800 2047N 10821W 4178 07250 0376 -120 -167 179039 039 029 002 00
133830 2045N 10823W 4215 07182 0372 -116 -184 183037 038 029 002 00
133900 2043N 10825W 4296 07041 0366 -108 -163 189037 038 030 002 00
133930 2041N 10827W 4401 06857 0355 -097 -207 194036 036 030 002 00
134000 2039N 10829W 4527 06652 0350 -087 -163 200036 036 031 001 00
134030 2037N 10831W 4653 06439 0338 -075 -105 201035 036 031 002 03
134100 2035N 10833W 4840 06141 0322 -055 -205 196039 040 999 999 03
134130 2034N 10835W 5020 05841 0295 -035 -290 192039 039 024 002 03
134200 2033N 10837W 5212 05535 0270 -024 -148 190041 043 999 999 03
134230 2032N 10839W 5462 05166 0244 -019 -059 188042 043 999 999 03
134300 2031N 10842W 5738 04763 0056 +010 -093 181043 044 999 999 03
134330 2030N 10844W 6010 04392 0049 +037 -080 177047 048 999 999 03
134400 2028N 10845W 6267 04053 0062 +052 -043 179045 046 035 003 03
134430 2027N 10846W 6441 03823 0077 +053 +020 179042 042 035 003 00
134500 2025N 10848W 6647 03564 0079 +067 +033 175045 046 034 003 00
$$
URPN15 KNHC 011355
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 29 20090901
134530 2024N 10849W 6870 03289 0072 +085 +055 176044 045 033 004 00
134600 2023N 10850W 6965 03170 0068 +095 +062 180043 044 033 005 00
134630 2021N 10851W 6965 03172 0071 +090 +068 177043 043 035 006 00
134700 2020N 10852W 6967 03169 0067 +093 +063 177044 044 035 007 00
134730 2019N 10853W 6967 03167 0066 +095 +050 179044 045 033 007 00
134800 2017N 10854W 6969 03164 0070 +090 +061 178044 045 033 008 00
134830 2016N 10855W 6964 03167 0073 +087 +061 177044 045 032 008 00
134900 2014N 10856W 6967 03163 0069 +088 +060 178046 046 030 009 00
134930 2013N 10857W 6966 03163 0066 +091 +059 178046 046 030 007 00
135000 2012N 10858W 6967 03165 0064 +095 +042 181045 046 031 006 00
135030 2010N 10859W 6966 03170 0063 +096 +050 188045 046 030 006 00
135100 2009N 10900W 6966 03164 0062 +098 +040 190044 044 030 007 00
135130 2008N 10901W 6967 03164 0058 +100 +044 190043 044 032 007 00
135200 2006N 10902W 6970 03162 0056 +101 +040 186041 042 032 007 00
135230 2005N 10903W 6966 03163 0056 +099 +036 182041 041 033 007 00
135300 2004N 10905W 6967 03160 0057 +098 +047 180041 042 033 007 00
135330 2002N 10906W 6972 03158 0061 +095 +059 183044 045 033 008 00
135400 2001N 10907W 6963 03168 0069 +088 +064 181043 044 033 009 00
135430 1959N 10908W 6982 03145 0079 +080 +079 186044 044 033 009 00
135500 1958N 10909W 6970 03156 0062 +090 +072 186045 046 033 008 00
$$
Now at operacional altitude.
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Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
I don't know if these are already up of if it has to be moved... Here are some webcams from Cabo San Lucas. Right in the middle of the cone so far.
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=5
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=4
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=1
http://www.caboazulresort.com/CameraView.aspx
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=5
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=4
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=1
http://www.caboazulresort.com/CameraView.aspx
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Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
9/1/09 00Z 4 model grand global ensemble. ECMWF and CMC ensembles are more in line with the operational models while the UKMET and GFS ensembles want to peel Jimena toward the W as it approaches Baja. The latter will occur is for some reason Jimena weakens much more rapidly than indicated, but all signs point to the right side of the ensemble cone at this time.
0 likes
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TheEuropean
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1796
- Age: 59
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
- Location: Voerde, Germany
- Contact:
000
URPN15 KNHC 011405
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 30 20090901
135530 1957N 10910W 6967 03159 0055 +094 +070 186045 045 030 006 00
135600 1956N 10911W 6967 03159 0054 +096 +069 191045 045 028 004 00
135630 1955N 10911W 6969 03158 0057 +094 +071 192046 046 029 003 00
135700 1954N 10912W 6966 03162 0056 +095 +067 191046 047 029 003 00
135730 1952N 10913W 6969 03159 0059 +095 +066 191046 047 027 003 00
135800 1951N 10914W 6965 03167 0057 +095 +068 191045 045 027 003 00
135830 1950N 10915W 6967 03162 0060 +095 +070 189044 045 026 003 00
135900 1949N 10916W 6967 03162 0060 +095 +068 186045 045 028 002 00
135930 1948N 10917W 6966 03164 0060 +095 +057 184044 045 027 003 00
140000 1947N 10918W 6972 03166 0068 +096 +067 183043 043 999 999 03
140030 1947N 10920W 6965 03166 0053 +103 +053 183045 045 023 004 03
140100 1949N 10921W 6967 03160 0051 +100 +059 182045 046 026 003 00
140130 1950N 10923W 6970 03158 0044 +105 +065 186044 045 028 004 00
140200 1952N 10924W 6969 03162 0048 +098 +076 188045 045 030 004 00
140230 1953N 10925W 6967 03154 0058 +086 +085 183047 048 030 006 00
140300 1955N 10927W 6965 03152 0065 +078 +078 185048 049 031 006 00
140330 1956N 10929W 6973 03141 0059 +082 +082 189050 051 029 008 00
140400 1958N 10930W 6958 03159 9990 +071 +999 186052 055 031 009 01
140430 1959N 10932W 6967 03141 0061 +077 +077 186053 054 030 007 00
140500 2001N 10933W 6966 03146 0045 +087 +087 188042 048 031 006 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011415
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 31 20090901
140530 2002N 10935W 6968 03137 0043 +087 +087 197042 044 030 004 00
140600 2003N 10936W 6968 03143 0044 +085 +085 201050 053 033 004 00
140630 2005N 10937W 6964 03142 0036 +090 +085 200054 054 035 004 00
140700 2006N 10939W 6967 03138 0031 +093 +084 198053 054 036 003 00
140730 2008N 10940W 6967 03136 0031 +091 +087 199054 055 037 003 00
140800 2009N 10942W 6970 03130 0024 +095 +088 201055 056 035 003 00
140830 2010N 10943W 6967 03130 0017 +099 +069 203057 057 038 002 00
140900 2011N 10945W 6965 03133 0006 +105 +064 201059 060 038 004 00
140930 2012N 10946W 6971 03121 0002 +105 +070 201058 059 039 003 00
141000 2014N 10948W 6967 03121 0002 +103 +080 204058 059 040 003 00
141030 2015N 10949W 6963 03122 0001 +098 +086 204060 061 041 003 00
141100 2016N 10951W 6968 03111 9998 +096 +092 205059 060 042 003 00
141130 2017N 10952W 6972 03106 9991 +100 +092 206060 062 043 004 00
141200 2018N 10954W 6964 03107 9985 +097 +097 204065 066 042 003 00
141230 2020N 10956W 6969 03101 9978 +101 +094 206066 067 043 004 00
141300 2021N 10957W 6966 03098 9982 +092 +092 204067 068 044 007 00
141330 2022N 10959W 6963 03094 9990 +077 +999 201068 071 048 011 01
141400 2023N 11000W 6977 03082 9990 +077 +999 208071 073 052 016 01
141430 2024N 11002W 6968 03087 9990 +087 +999 209070 073 052 017 01
141500 2025N 11003W 6961 03090 9952 +104 +104 209072 074 052 007 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011425
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 32 20090901
141530 2027N 11005W 6967 03078 9954 +097 +097 209073 074 050 006 00
141600 2028N 11006W 6971 03074 9990 +082 +999 208074 075 051 006 01
141630 2029N 11007W 6961 03072 9944 +096 +096 210074 075 052 006 00
141700 2030N 11009W 6970 03051 9922 +105 +089 212080 083 055 006 00
141730 2031N 11010W 6968 03041 9916 +101 +084 210086 087 056 007 00
141800 2032N 11012W 6969 03029 9900 +106 +086 208087 087 057 008 00
141830 2034N 11013W 6967 03022 9882 +110 +087 206090 091 059 006 00
141900 2035N 11015W 6968 03011 9878 +103 +100 207093 093 059 006 00
141930 2036N 11016W 6967 02999 9860 +106 +097 208095 097 063 005 00
142000 2037N 11018W 6963 02988 9841 +106 +106 208095 096 065 005 00
142030 2038N 11019W 6966 02971 9823 +108 +108 207097 099 067 004 00
142100 2039N 11021W 6968 02951 9799 +112 +112 208099 099 067 005 00
142130 2040N 11022W 6961 02942 9778 +109 +109 206101 103 070 004 00
142200 2042N 11024W 6970 02911 9758 +110 +110 210104 106 074 004 00
142230 2043N 11025W 6963 02891 9701 +134 +118 216100 101 082 000 00
142300 2044N 11026W 6963 02866 9669 +138 +113 217101 102 086 000 00
142330 2045N 11028W 6978 02814 9636 +134 +122 216102 104 088 000 00
142400 2046N 11029W 6959 02800 9593 +138 +130 216092 097 087 001 00
142430 2047N 11030W 6959 02774 9546 +157 +124 215075 078 080 001 00
142500 2048N 11032W 6978 02724 9520 +156 +140 215064 070 069 003 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011435
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 33 20090901
142530 2049N 11034W 6964 02721 9502 +151 +140 218053 057 058 004 00
142600 2050N 11035W 6967 02697 9477 +156 +143 230044 047 047 005 03
142630 2051N 11036W 6961 02688 9461 +151 +147 232034 038 043 006 00
142700 2052N 11038W 6975 02662 9454 +149 +149 236021 023 034 004 03
142730 2053N 11039W 6967 02668 9451 +145 +145 247012 016 026 006 03
142800 2055N 11040W 6973 02655 9447 +150 +146 001004 009 021 005 00
142830 2056N 11041W 6967 02667 9444 +155 +140 050021 025 023 005 00
142900 2058N 11042W 6964 02685 9453 +158 +140 062035 040 032 006 00
142930 2059N 11044W 6969 02697 9475 +159 +140 061046 049 043 005 00
143000 2100N 11045W 6968 02724 9501 +156 +144 053057 059 058 004 00
143030 2102N 11047W 6970 02739 9529 +152 +143 054063 067 092 008 00
143100 2103N 11048W 6962 02783 9564 +146 +140 048069 070 102 011 00
143130 2104N 11049W 6963 02805 9603 +127 +127 049074 076 101 020 01
143200 2105N 11051W 6965 02826 9990 +102 +999 063085 095 099 027 01
143230 2107N 11052W 6966 02886 9990 +085 +999 061104 113 096 035 05
143300 2108N 11053W 6964 02907 9990 +083 +999 055097 098 083 032 05
143330 2109N 11055W 6963 02934 9990 +080 +999 057098 100 080 028 01
143400 2111N 11056W 6973 02944 9990 +082 +999 059094 095 075 019 01
143430 2112N 11058W 6970 02970 9990 +079 +999 056088 093 073 018 01
143500 2113N 11059W 6961 02991 9990 +092 +999 058085 087 067 013 01
Pressure 944.4 mb extrapolated, Winds 113 kts at flight level
URPN15 KNHC 011405
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 30 20090901
135530 1957N 10910W 6967 03159 0055 +094 +070 186045 045 030 006 00
135600 1956N 10911W 6967 03159 0054 +096 +069 191045 045 028 004 00
135630 1955N 10911W 6969 03158 0057 +094 +071 192046 046 029 003 00
135700 1954N 10912W 6966 03162 0056 +095 +067 191046 047 029 003 00
135730 1952N 10913W 6969 03159 0059 +095 +066 191046 047 027 003 00
135800 1951N 10914W 6965 03167 0057 +095 +068 191045 045 027 003 00
135830 1950N 10915W 6967 03162 0060 +095 +070 189044 045 026 003 00
135900 1949N 10916W 6967 03162 0060 +095 +068 186045 045 028 002 00
135930 1948N 10917W 6966 03164 0060 +095 +057 184044 045 027 003 00
140000 1947N 10918W 6972 03166 0068 +096 +067 183043 043 999 999 03
140030 1947N 10920W 6965 03166 0053 +103 +053 183045 045 023 004 03
140100 1949N 10921W 6967 03160 0051 +100 +059 182045 046 026 003 00
140130 1950N 10923W 6970 03158 0044 +105 +065 186044 045 028 004 00
140200 1952N 10924W 6969 03162 0048 +098 +076 188045 045 030 004 00
140230 1953N 10925W 6967 03154 0058 +086 +085 183047 048 030 006 00
140300 1955N 10927W 6965 03152 0065 +078 +078 185048 049 031 006 00
140330 1956N 10929W 6973 03141 0059 +082 +082 189050 051 029 008 00
140400 1958N 10930W 6958 03159 9990 +071 +999 186052 055 031 009 01
140430 1959N 10932W 6967 03141 0061 +077 +077 186053 054 030 007 00
140500 2001N 10933W 6966 03146 0045 +087 +087 188042 048 031 006 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011415
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 31 20090901
140530 2002N 10935W 6968 03137 0043 +087 +087 197042 044 030 004 00
140600 2003N 10936W 6968 03143 0044 +085 +085 201050 053 033 004 00
140630 2005N 10937W 6964 03142 0036 +090 +085 200054 054 035 004 00
140700 2006N 10939W 6967 03138 0031 +093 +084 198053 054 036 003 00
140730 2008N 10940W 6967 03136 0031 +091 +087 199054 055 037 003 00
140800 2009N 10942W 6970 03130 0024 +095 +088 201055 056 035 003 00
140830 2010N 10943W 6967 03130 0017 +099 +069 203057 057 038 002 00
140900 2011N 10945W 6965 03133 0006 +105 +064 201059 060 038 004 00
140930 2012N 10946W 6971 03121 0002 +105 +070 201058 059 039 003 00
141000 2014N 10948W 6967 03121 0002 +103 +080 204058 059 040 003 00
141030 2015N 10949W 6963 03122 0001 +098 +086 204060 061 041 003 00
141100 2016N 10951W 6968 03111 9998 +096 +092 205059 060 042 003 00
141130 2017N 10952W 6972 03106 9991 +100 +092 206060 062 043 004 00
141200 2018N 10954W 6964 03107 9985 +097 +097 204065 066 042 003 00
141230 2020N 10956W 6969 03101 9978 +101 +094 206066 067 043 004 00
141300 2021N 10957W 6966 03098 9982 +092 +092 204067 068 044 007 00
141330 2022N 10959W 6963 03094 9990 +077 +999 201068 071 048 011 01
141400 2023N 11000W 6977 03082 9990 +077 +999 208071 073 052 016 01
141430 2024N 11002W 6968 03087 9990 +087 +999 209070 073 052 017 01
141500 2025N 11003W 6961 03090 9952 +104 +104 209072 074 052 007 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011425
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 32 20090901
141530 2027N 11005W 6967 03078 9954 +097 +097 209073 074 050 006 00
141600 2028N 11006W 6971 03074 9990 +082 +999 208074 075 051 006 01
141630 2029N 11007W 6961 03072 9944 +096 +096 210074 075 052 006 00
141700 2030N 11009W 6970 03051 9922 +105 +089 212080 083 055 006 00
141730 2031N 11010W 6968 03041 9916 +101 +084 210086 087 056 007 00
141800 2032N 11012W 6969 03029 9900 +106 +086 208087 087 057 008 00
141830 2034N 11013W 6967 03022 9882 +110 +087 206090 091 059 006 00
141900 2035N 11015W 6968 03011 9878 +103 +100 207093 093 059 006 00
141930 2036N 11016W 6967 02999 9860 +106 +097 208095 097 063 005 00
142000 2037N 11018W 6963 02988 9841 +106 +106 208095 096 065 005 00
142030 2038N 11019W 6966 02971 9823 +108 +108 207097 099 067 004 00
142100 2039N 11021W 6968 02951 9799 +112 +112 208099 099 067 005 00
142130 2040N 11022W 6961 02942 9778 +109 +109 206101 103 070 004 00
142200 2042N 11024W 6970 02911 9758 +110 +110 210104 106 074 004 00
142230 2043N 11025W 6963 02891 9701 +134 +118 216100 101 082 000 00
142300 2044N 11026W 6963 02866 9669 +138 +113 217101 102 086 000 00
142330 2045N 11028W 6978 02814 9636 +134 +122 216102 104 088 000 00
142400 2046N 11029W 6959 02800 9593 +138 +130 216092 097 087 001 00
142430 2047N 11030W 6959 02774 9546 +157 +124 215075 078 080 001 00
142500 2048N 11032W 6978 02724 9520 +156 +140 215064 070 069 003 00
000
URPN15 KNHC 011435
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 33 20090901
142530 2049N 11034W 6964 02721 9502 +151 +140 218053 057 058 004 00
142600 2050N 11035W 6967 02697 9477 +156 +143 230044 047 047 005 03
142630 2051N 11036W 6961 02688 9461 +151 +147 232034 038 043 006 00
142700 2052N 11038W 6975 02662 9454 +149 +149 236021 023 034 004 03
142730 2053N 11039W 6967 02668 9451 +145 +145 247012 016 026 006 03
142800 2055N 11040W 6973 02655 9447 +150 +146 001004 009 021 005 00
142830 2056N 11041W 6967 02667 9444 +155 +140 050021 025 023 005 00
142900 2058N 11042W 6964 02685 9453 +158 +140 062035 040 032 006 00
142930 2059N 11044W 6969 02697 9475 +159 +140 061046 049 043 005 00
143000 2100N 11045W 6968 02724 9501 +156 +144 053057 059 058 004 00
143030 2102N 11047W 6970 02739 9529 +152 +143 054063 067 092 008 00
143100 2103N 11048W 6962 02783 9564 +146 +140 048069 070 102 011 00
143130 2104N 11049W 6963 02805 9603 +127 +127 049074 076 101 020 01
143200 2105N 11051W 6965 02826 9990 +102 +999 063085 095 099 027 01
143230 2107N 11052W 6966 02886 9990 +085 +999 061104 113 096 035 05
143300 2108N 11053W 6964 02907 9990 +083 +999 055097 098 083 032 05
143330 2109N 11055W 6963 02934 9990 +080 +999 057098 100 080 028 01
143400 2111N 11056W 6973 02944 9990 +082 +999 059094 095 075 019 01
143430 2112N 11058W 6970 02970 9990 +079 +999 056088 093 073 018 01
143500 2113N 11059W 6961 02991 9990 +092 +999 058085 087 067 013 01
Pressure 944.4 mb extrapolated, Winds 113 kts at flight level
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TheEuropean
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URPN15 KNHC 011445
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 34 20090901
143530 2115N 11100W 6973 02995 9990 +092 +999 058086 088 063 009 01
143600 2116N 11102W 6967 03012 9883 +095 +095 059081 081 060 009 00
143630 2117N 11103W 6967 03020 9904 +091 +091 060078 079 059 011 01
143700 2118N 11105W 6967 03029 9907 +091 +091 063077 079 055 011 01
143730 2120N 11106W 6975 03032 9990 +076 +999 060072 074 054 014 01
143800 2121N 11107W 6967 03048 9990 +075 +999 058073 074 053 017 01
143830 2122N 11109W 6968 03059 9990 +077 +999 056073 076 054 015 01
143900 2124N 11110W 6965 03066 9990 +084 +999 060074 076 053 014 01
143930 2125N 11112W 6972 03064 9990 +081 +999 061070 071 049 012 01
144000 2126N 11113W 6966 03075 9990 +085 +999 061070 071 048 011 01
144030 2128N 11114W 6966 03084 9983 +081 +081 057072 073 048 011 01
144100 2129N 11116W 6969 03082 9975 +089 +089 058071 072 047 009 00
144130 2130N 11117W 6968 03088 9970 +095 +089 058070 071 051 011 00
144200 2131N 11119W 6960 03100 9990 +073 +999 052063 067 057 029 05
144230 2133N 11120W 6957 03108 9990 +070 +999 059072 075 052 039 05
144300 2134N 11121W 6963 03104 9990 +068 +999 061071 072 046 020 01
144330 2135N 11123W 6972 03099 9990 +076 +999 062064 066 043 015 01
144400 2137N 11124W 6960 03115 0005 +083 +083 064062 065 043 014 01
144430 2138N 11126W 6972 03106 9990 +078 +999 066060 063 043 015 01
144500 2139N 11127W 6967 03116 9990 +086 +999 070060 061 040 013 01
URPN15 KNHC 011445
AF306 0213E JIMENA HDOB 34 20090901
143530 2115N 11100W 6973 02995 9990 +092 +999 058086 088 063 009 01
143600 2116N 11102W 6967 03012 9883 +095 +095 059081 081 060 009 00
143630 2117N 11103W 6967 03020 9904 +091 +091 060078 079 059 011 01
143700 2118N 11105W 6967 03029 9907 +091 +091 063077 079 055 011 01
143730 2120N 11106W 6975 03032 9990 +076 +999 060072 074 054 014 01
143800 2121N 11107W 6967 03048 9990 +075 +999 058073 074 053 017 01
143830 2122N 11109W 6968 03059 9990 +077 +999 056073 076 054 015 01
143900 2124N 11110W 6965 03066 9990 +084 +999 060074 076 053 014 01
143930 2125N 11112W 6972 03064 9990 +081 +999 061070 071 049 012 01
144000 2126N 11113W 6966 03075 9990 +085 +999 061070 071 048 011 01
144030 2128N 11114W 6966 03084 9983 +081 +081 057072 073 048 011 01
144100 2129N 11116W 6969 03082 9975 +089 +089 058071 072 047 009 00
144130 2130N 11117W 6968 03088 9970 +095 +089 058070 071 051 011 00
144200 2131N 11119W 6960 03100 9990 +073 +999 052063 067 057 029 05
144230 2133N 11120W 6957 03108 9990 +070 +999 059072 075 052 039 05
144300 2134N 11121W 6963 03104 9990 +068 +999 061071 072 046 020 01
144330 2135N 11123W 6972 03099 9990 +076 +999 062064 066 043 015 01
144400 2137N 11124W 6960 03115 0005 +083 +083 064062 065 043 014 01
144430 2138N 11126W 6972 03106 9990 +078 +999 066060 063 043 015 01
144500 2139N 11127W 6967 03116 9990 +086 +999 070060 061 040 013 01
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TheEuropean
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URPN12 KNHC 011447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 01/14:28:00Z
B. 20 deg 55 min N
110 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2627 m
D. 88 kt
E. 129 deg 14 nm
F. 211 deg 106 kt
G. 129 deg 19 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 11 C / 3054 m
J. 16 C / 3036 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C12
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0213E JIMENA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 106 KT SE QUAD 14:22:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 131 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
URPN12 KNHC 011447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 01/14:28:00Z
B. 20 deg 55 min N
110 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2627 m
D. 88 kt
E. 129 deg 14 nm
F. 211 deg 106 kt
G. 129 deg 19 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 11 C / 3054 m
J. 16 C / 3036 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C12
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0213E JIMENA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 106 KT SE QUAD 14:22:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 131 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NASA TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES...ALONG
WITH IR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT JIMENA IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING RAGGED
AND CLOUD-FILLED...WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL
ROUGHLY 30 N MI WIDE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER...REPORTING THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 945 MB...AND THAT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THOSE MEASURED YESTERDAY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT ABOUT
10 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST BECOME LESS CONFIDENT
FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE REST
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. OVERALL...
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND SO HAS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...THE NEW TRACK COMPROMISES
BETWEEN THE MODEL EXTREMES BY CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.
THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD INTENSIFY SOME AT THE END OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL THAT TIME. JIMENA SHOULD
WEAKEN FASTER DURING ITS TIME OVER BAJA. AFTER 72 HR...JIMENA
COULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
UNDER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...OR OVER COLD WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ALL
OF THOSE POSSIBILITIES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.0N 110.7W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.9N 112.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 27.1N 113.3W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.5N 113.0W 20 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NASA TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES...ALONG
WITH IR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT JIMENA IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING RAGGED
AND CLOUD-FILLED...WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL
ROUGHLY 30 N MI WIDE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER...REPORTING THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 945 MB...AND THAT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THOSE MEASURED YESTERDAY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT ABOUT
10 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST BECOME LESS CONFIDENT
FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE REST
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. OVERALL...
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND SO HAS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...THE NEW TRACK COMPROMISES
BETWEEN THE MODEL EXTREMES BY CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.
THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD INTENSIFY SOME AT THE END OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL THAT TIME. JIMENA SHOULD
WEAKEN FASTER DURING ITS TIME OVER BAJA. AFTER 72 HR...JIMENA
COULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
UNDER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...OR OVER COLD WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ALL
OF THOSE POSSIBILITIES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.0N 110.7W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.9N 112.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 27.1N 113.3W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.5N 113.0W 20 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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