ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Blown Away]

Snippet from NWS Melbourne Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TUE-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GFS/ECMWF FCST UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK BUT LIFTING OUT BY THE
WEEKEND. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PGRAD WILL BE WEAK AS AN ERLY
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE WEAK
SFC TROUGH WHICH MAY REACH REACH CENT FL BEFORE WASHING OUT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS CENT FL WITH PCP WATER PROGGED 1.9-2".
THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTN AND WITH GENERALLY SW STEERING
FLOW...EXPECT SCT POPS (40-50%) EACH DAY.

[jlauderdal]

not sure why this has struggled today. May be because it is very broad. The next convective burst (assuming there is one during the overnight hours) should tighten this thing up

it felt bad that you might have to wear the cap or eat the crow so it delayed just a few hours to get going

[alan1961]

most systems recurve so odds are in your favor from the start

except the latest GFS doesn't show a recurve....

i'm leaning towards the GFS model recurve

Jinftl, i was refering to Recurve's name not a recurve of the GFS latest run

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS is out to lunch!

['CaneFreak]

lets put the south center idea to the glue factory

all of the new convection is firing along the northern curved band. This should form near 14N. Threat to Lesser Antilles small. Threat of a hurricane, fairly high

Ummm....what evidence do you have that suggests this is at 14 N? 'Cause quikscat doesn't lie....

[wxman57]

There is an updated QuikSCAT, but not on the 94L section. It's on the main QS page. Looks like a well-defined LLC with one unflagged 30kt wind to the north. More impressive a circulation than Danny had for 36 hours while it was still classified as a TS.

[paintplaye]

most systems recurve so odds are in your favor from the start

except the latest GFS doesn't show a recurve....

i'm leaning towards the GFS model recurve

Jinftl, i was refering to Recurve's name not a recurve of the GFS latest run

You are a very happy person.

[Derek Ortt]

Looking at the high-res, there is no well-defined circulation

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds100.png

there is a small eddy near 11N and 51W and a sharp cusp near about 13N and 49W

[cycloneye]

57,TD at 11 based on the pass or they will wait for a burst of convection?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

There is an updated QuikSCAT, but not on the 94L section. It's on the main QS page. Looks like a well-defined LLC with one unflagged 30kt wind to the north. More impressive a circulation than Danny had for 36 hours while it was still classified as a TS.

I see the center somewhere near 12N and 50.5W according to that QuikScat

[Derek Ortt]

57,TD at 11 based on the pass or they will wait for a burst of convection?

look at the high res. That should NEVER be classified. The closed low is near 11N and 51W. That should be dead in about 12 hours. Once that dies, then the northern area should form as QS shows nice cyclonic turning in the form of a cusp

[Derek Ortt]

that pass was available well before the TWO was written. May be why they did not mention any increase in organization

[wzrgirl1]

Think it will be classified at 5 a.m. IMO.........should take off from there

[Aric Dunn]

very significant ridge that the nogaps is building in at the end of the run. with the trough over the ohio valley lifting out and ridge building west.. next few runs of the nogaps are going to be interesting..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009083018

['CaneFreak]

57,TD at 11 based on the pass or they will wait for a burst of convection?

look at the high res. That should NEVER be classified. The closed low is near 11N and 51W. That should be dead in about 12 hours. Once that dies, then the northern area should form as QS shows nice cyclonic turning in the form of a cusp

Why would that closed low die in 12 hours?????

[Derek Ortt]

because it is very weak and nearly outside of the convection. The convection is banded around the area to the NE. That is where the cyclone should form. not that Eddy well SW. It likely is what hindered development today

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N45W TO 8N49W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 11N48W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATED
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 47W-49W..AND TO THE W OF LOW CENTER FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
48W-54W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[paintplaye]

THE WAVE IS
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

hmm...

['CaneFreak]

because it is very weak and nearly outside of the convection. The convection is banded around the area to the NE. That is where the cyclone should form. not that Eddy well SW. It likely is what hindered development today

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Well, according to this shot the south AND north ends of this broad circulation are showing evidence of banding so I am not sure what you are talking about...what hindered development today was the lack of convection and the lack of convection is probably due to some dry air...

[Aric Dunn]

because it is very weak and nearly outside of the convection. The convection is banded around the area to the NE. That is where the cyclone should form. not that Eddy well SW. It likely is what hindered development today

show us where the banding is wrapping around near 14 N .. cause there is a curved band through where you say. now if the system move a little more north then the already developing center farther south will be up around 14 N .. but now I dont see nothing there except a banding.