ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[hurricanetrack]

I agree with that statement in general. Seems to me that there is a reason the majority of the reliable global models do almost nothing with this system. That reason could easily be because it is not going to develop- ever. Of course, the global models did not pick up on Felix in 2007 if I recall. So who the heck knows!

[Bocadude85]

Has good structure.. just lacking convection... not sure about the track yet though... may recurve before the US

[blp]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]ok well here is yet another loop showing Banding trough 14N which means there cant be a center there... lol

12 to 13N .. at some point it will move up to 14 N but it is south of 14 N as of right and is moving 280 or so ..
rough estimate is
12.3N 48.1 W

also buoy 4104 has a ene wind and if the center at 14N a west of 46 ene winds would not make sense

Looks about right. Nice southern feederband working its way up. This thing is getting its act together.

[jinftl]

Granted you said 'reliable', but 94L is not lacking for models showing an intensifying system over time

I agree with that statement in general. Seems to me that there is a reason the majority of the reliable global models do almost nothing with this system. That reason could easily be because it is not going to develop- ever. Of course, the global models did not pick up on Felix in 2007 if I recall. So who the heck knows!

[lonelymike]

Granted you said 'reliable', but 94L is not lacking for models showing an intensifying system over time

I agree with that statement in general. Seems to me that there is a reason the majority of the reliable global models do almost nothing with this system. That reason could easily be because it is not going to develop- ever. Of course, the global models did not pick up on Felix in 2007 if I recall. So who the heck knows!

And we all know how accurate intensity forecasting is.

[jinftl]

Are you implying that open wave to Cat 3 is a pretty big range of possibilities 120 hours out?

Granted you said 'reliable', but 94L is not lacking for models showing an intensifying system over time

I agree with that statement in general. Seems to me that there is a reason the majority of the reliable global models do almost nothing with this system. That reason could easily be because it is not going to develop- ever. Of course, the global models did not pick up on Felix in 2007 if I recall. So who the heck knows!

And we all know how accurate intensity forecasting is.

[Blown Away]

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

Very premature statement. Its unlikely that it will effect us right now, but things always change in the tropics.

I also don't see anything in the linked discussion which makes that assertion:

In the extended period...Wednesday through Sat...a short wave over the north
Great Plains dives southeast into the East Coast trough...deepening the trough
again. This shoves the upper ridge southeast re-establishing the SW flow
over S fla Thursday and into the weekend. At the low levels...an inverted
trough in the SW North Atlantic will move toward S fla...merging this trough
with a with a broad surface trough off the east U.S. Coast that extends
SW across the central fla peninsula. Being on the S side of this
trough means a slight increase in the chances of precipitation over
S fla...favoring the interior and east.

Not one word about 94L.

By next Saturday 94L will probably be a good 600+ miles from SFL and would not be mentioned in today's extended forecast. Not sure if the trough will be hanging out long enough to influence 94L.

[jinftl]

Not sure I agree with the logic given that the NWS Discussion goes through Saturday, and by then, 94L/Erika would still be 800 miles or so away from florida. Not sure I would also infer that the weather pattern won't change...and in fact, the trough they mention could be lifting out with a ridge buidling in after Saturday.

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[Blown Away]

Not sure I agree with the logic given that the NWS Discussion goes through Saturday, and by then, 94L/Erika would still be 800 miles or so away from florida. Not sure I would also infer that the weather pattern won't change...and in fact, the trough they mention could be lifting out with a ridge buidling in after Saturday.

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

jinftl, you and I right or wrong are on the same page. 94L will not be close enough to SFL to be mentioned in today's forecast.

[alan1961]

only one way this is going and thats above the islands as a disorganised mess, i'll say a marginal TS at the most and then fishing IMO

[jinftl]

Great minds....lol! If you think about it, a system being near or north of the islands wouldn't be too influenced by the trough when it will be making its strongest push to the east coast. By the time 94L is in the area, say, from over to more likely north of puerto rico, a building ridge would not be something we would want to see.

Not sure I agree with the logic given that the NWS Discussion goes through Saturday, and by then, 94L/Erika would still be 800 miles or so away from florida. Not sure I would also infer that the weather pattern won't change...and in fact, the trough they mention could be lifting out with a ridge buidling in after Saturday.

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

jinftl, you and I right or wrong are on the same page. 94L will not be close enough to SFL to be mentioned in today's forecast.

[Recurve]

Not a forecast though, right?

[Typhoon_Willie]

It is a little too early to state that it will miss the US and it does look a little bit better of a mess than it did before.

[alan1961]

i'm leaning towards the GFS model recurve

[Typhoon_Willie]

From what I understand the GFS has not been doing well this year.

[jinftl]

most systems recurve so odds are in your favor from the start

except the latest GFS doesn't show a recurve....

i'm leaning towards the GFS model recurve

[cycloneye]

That circle is very big.

254
ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

[alan1961]

Well Typhoon i suppose its a question of watch the storm ( or lack of one ) and see which model comes closest

[boca]

Its simple if we have building heights in the SE US then we will have a threat because its moving WNW and slowed down.If it gets north of PR by 100 to 300 miles and turns west well have to watch especially that the models are sniffing out a pattern change. If the models are off and we are in the same pattern Bermuda, the NE and Canada will have to pay attention.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Derek Ortt]

not sure why this has struggled today. May be because it is very broad. The next convective burst (assuming there is one during the overnight hours) should tighten this thing up