Northwestern Caribbean (GOH) moving into the BOC

[tailgater]

I think part of Invest 93L split off and headed NW over Central America and it may stay there until it completely dies out, but it may get drawn father north by the appoaching trough in the central US then NE toward Fla. Probably nothing but as they say could bear watching.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[tailgater]

I just noticed the Nam has this piece of energy developing a little in the southern BOC and moving NW but I don't want to get Karl to excited just yet lets see if any other models pick up on this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

the earlier run had it a bit more defined.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Well the ETA model is on board, not exactly the most reliable model.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... slp&loop=1

[Flyinman]

Wow, would be nice if it moved through South Texas into Central Texas. Hard to tell exactly where it may end up though.

[lrak]

thanks for thinking of me tailgater!

Our local weather mets are mentioning a "slight slight chance" of rain starting early next week.



The farmers and ranchers are dried up, I saw a smoke cloud driving home this evening and as I got closer I realized it was a farmer and his plow out in the middle of his field.

Now it feels as if we have lotto odds at any decent rains. I know they will come but DANG, lets get the show going....grr.

I also had to go to Mexico a couple of weeks ago for surf, this is getting BAD and expensive!

noaa is such a tease!

[lrak]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO WATCH FOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHAPER
TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVING INTO
MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS IS BEING HINTED AT BY 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM (AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF) WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE
DRAWN SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT DOES HOWEVER LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&


Our local guys are desperate, I can tell. They hardly ever mention a "possibility" until the area in question is almost a depression I'm not saying that this wave would become one but we all need a little shower. I swear we are all going to rejoice and I really miss the GREEN.

[tailgater]

This little wave(surge) should be just exiting the Yucatan and entering the BOC. I think this thing will flare up and down the next couple of days with SOME slow organization by Sunday as it gets a little help from topography from the Mexican east coast. TD status, probably not about 10% chance in my very amateur opinion. Hopefully some rain for those areas in dire need.

[tailgater]

Well It's trying to give it a go this morning but tons of shear will keep any chance of this developing to about nil. Hopefully it give South Texas a little better chance of rain.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-jsl.html

[lrak]

Little bitty spin at 25n 96.5w SAY YOU SEE IT.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[vbhoutex]

Ok, I'll say I see it. Thee actually does appear to be a little vort there. I wouldn't place any significance on it though.

[lrak]

Ok, I'll say I see it. Thee actually does appear to be a little vort there. I wouldn't place any significance on it though.

Thanks vbhoutex!

Its hopeless around here, smells like rain, cloudy, but absolutely nothing along the coast! ACK