ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html



Last hurrah Danny, you got a date with the ULL I think. The shear will increase as the ULL cometh.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

[Aric Dunn]

Here are my rough estimates for a center fix
28.54° N 73.34°

[MGC]

Beautiful evening here on the Mississippi Coast thanks to the ULL. All most looks like a big high pressure ridge is overhead.

Danny sure does look like he is on the ropes tonight. Circulation center looks to be moving north. Convection is well removed from the center. I would not be surprised if the current center dissipates.....MGC

[clfenwi]

Quick check on model and NHC track forecast performance:

-The 36hr forecast of the GFS at the time Danny was classified (26 Aug 12Z) was a respectable 56 nautical miles (NHC's was 64).

-24 hour error on the consensus of last night's 00Z models (GFS/GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS/UKMET) was 32 nautical miles (NHC was 38).

-For the three forecasts made at 00/12z, GFS' average 12 hour error was 23 nm (vs 53 for the NHC).

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280204
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 36 20090828
015500 2911N 07349W 4271 07139 0419 -119 -378 070002 002 999 999 03
015530 2911N 07352W 4272 07137 0419 -118 -392 074002 003 005 000 03
015600 2910N 07354W 4271 07139 0420 -116 -398 075003 004 005 000 03
015630 2909N 07357W 4271 07139 0420 -115 -404 087004 006 006 000 03
015700 2909N 07400W 4272 07137 0420 -109 -414 074007 008 006 000 03
015730 2908N 07403W 4271 07140 0421 -105 -426 074008 008 006 000 03
015800 2908N 07406W 4272 07139 0422 -105 -442 080008 008 999 999 03
015830 2907N 07409W 4272 07141 0422 -105 -457 082009 009 004 000 03
015900 2907N 07412W 4272 07141 0422 -104 -469 084009 009 999 999 03
015930 2907N 07415W 4272 07141 0423 -101 -476 075008 008 999 999 03
020000 2906N 07418W 4272 07140 0423 -107 -481 095009 009 999 999 03
020030 2906N 07421W 4271 07143 0424 -103 -485 090007 008 999 999 03
020100 2905N 07424W 4272 07143 0424 -104 -484 090008 009 005 000 03
020130 2905N 07427W 4272 07142 0425 -106 -483 092009 010 999 999 03
020200 2904N 07430W 4272 07143 0425 -104 -483 093008 009 999 999 03
020230 2904N 07433W 4272 07143 0426 -105 -481 095007 008 999 999 03
020300 2903N 07436W 4272 07144 0427 -102 -480 083008 008 999 999 03
020330 2903N 07439W 4272 07145 0427 -103 -475 090007 007 999 999 03
020400 2902N 07442W 4272 07145 0427 -103 -469 095007 007 999 999 03
020430 2901N 07445W 4272 07145 0427 -103 -465 095007 008 004 000 03

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280214
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 37 20090828
020500 2901N 07448W 4272 07145 0428 -105 -464 106009 009 006 000 03
020530 2901N 07451W 4272 07146 0428 -106 -468 109010 011 005 000 03
020600 2900N 07454W 4272 07146 0429 -106 -471 107010 011 004 000 03
020630 2900N 07457W 4272 07147 0430 -105 -471 104009 009 999 999 03
020700 2859N 07500W 4273 07148 0430 -104 -465 106008 008 999 999 03
020730 2859N 07503W 4272 07148 0431 -103 -458 097007 007 005 000 03
020800 2858N 07506W 4273 07147 0431 -103 -438 096007 007 005 000 03
020830 2858N 07509W 4272 07148 0431 -103 -407 079006 006 999 999 03
020900 2857N 07512W 4272 07148 0430 -103 -347 069005 005 999 999 03
020930 2857N 07515W 4273 07147 0431 -104 -314 076007 007 999 999 03
021000 2856N 07518W 4272 07149 0431 -105 -379 101006 006 999 999 03
021030 2855N 07521W 4272 07148 0431 -106 -352 116005 005 999 999 03
021100 2855N 07524W 4273 07148 0431 -106 -310 095005 006 004 000 03
021130 2854N 07527W 4273 07146 0431 -106 -304 094006 006 007 000 03
021200 2854N 07530W 4273 07147 0431 -107 -296 080005 006 007 000 03
021230 2853N 07533W 4273 07146 0430 -107 -281 088005 005 006 000 03
021300 2853N 07536W 4273 07146 0430 -107 -279 087005 005 007 000 03
021330 2852N 07538W 4273 07146 0430 -108 -270 103005 005 006 000 03
021400 2852N 07541W 4273 07147 0430 -109 -278 121005 005 007 000 03
021430 2851N 07544W 4274 07145 0431 -109 -264 107004 004 008 000 03

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280224
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 38 20090828
021500 2851N 07547W 4272 07148 0431 -110 -256 092003 003 999 999 03
021530 2850N 07550W 4273 07147 0431 -111 -252 120002 002 999 999 03
021600 2850N 07553W 4273 07147 0431 -112 -255 130003 003 999 999 03
021630 2849N 07556W 4274 07145 0431 -113 -258 122003 004 014 000 03
021700 2849N 07559W 4272 07148 0431 -114 -269 160001 001 010 000 03
021730 2848N 07602W 4273 07147 0431 -114 -272 188002 003 006 000 03
021800 2848N 07605W 4273 07147 0431 -113 -277 208005 006 007 000 03
021830 2848N 07607W 4274 07146 0431 -111 -282 208006 007 005 000 03
021900 2847N 07610W 4274 07146 0431 -111 -280 198007 007 006 000 03
021930 2847N 07613W 4273 07146 0430 -110 -281 193007 008 006 000 03
022000 2846N 07616W 4274 07145 0430 -110 -281 192007 008 006 000 03
022030 2846N 07619W 4273 07146 0430 -111 -280 185007 008 005 000 03
022100 2845N 07622W 4273 07146 0430 -112 -285 182007 007 006 000 03
022130 2845N 07625W 4273 07145 0430 -112 -306 184007 008 007 000 03
022200 2844N 07628W 4274 07145 0430 -112 -289 187007 007 006 000 03
022230 2844N 07630W 4274 07145 0430 -113 -306 187007 007 007 000 00
022300 2844N 07633W 4273 07145 0430 -114 -303 173006 006 999 999 03
022330 2843N 07636W 4274 07145 0430 -116 -286 165006 006 006 000 03
022400 2842N 07639W 4275 07144 0431 -116 -306 153006 006 999 999 03
022430 2841N 07641W 4274 07146 0431 -115 -280 160006 006 005 000 03

[Aric Dunn]

they leaving .. ?

[Brent]

TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...DANNY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...780 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...28.4N 73.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 73.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 73.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 75SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 40.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 47.5N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 50.5N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 51.0N 31.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 73.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

DANNY REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED IN ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION.
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOWS
LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
DANNY HAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEPTH. A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT...CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN DANNY THIS EVENING...
INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE
42 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. DANNY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO ITS
WEST. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STORM TO
STRENGTHEN AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WITH SOME LESSENING OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER BY 48 HOURS THE SHEAR OVER DANNY
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40 KT OR MORE SO ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CEASE BY THAT TIME. IN
FACT...BY 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE ANALYSES IMPLY THAT DANNY MAY HAVE ALREADY BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE CENTER MEANDERED ABOUT DURING THE DAY...BUT LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT A NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE
CENTER IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/7. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. DANNY SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THEREAFTER
A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CARRY
DANNY OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
BEING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER NEW
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY
IF THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFTS TO THE WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 28.4N 73.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 29.7N 74.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 32.5N 74.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 40.5N 69.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 47.5N 59.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0000Z 50.5N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 51.0N 31.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[wxman57]

Wow! 10pm report says it's "very disorganized" now, with only 42 kts FL about 180 miles east of the center. 42kts FL doesn't support TS at surface, not to mention the lack of banding and lack of convection. Well, time for bed.

Will focus on 94L tomorrow, but still keep an eye on "TS" Danny.

[littlevince]

they leaving .. ?

Seems so.

Last post:

000
URNT15 KWBC 280234
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 39 20090828
022500 2840N 07644W 4273 07147 0431 -112 -292 169007 007 999 999 03
022530 2839N 07647W 4273 07146 0431 -112 -287 165006 007 999 999 03
022600 2838N 07650W 4274 07145 0431 -114 -288 160006 007 006 000 03
022630 2837N 07652W 4274 07146 0431 -112 -289 163007 007 999 999 03
022700 2836N 07655W 4274 07147 0431 -113 -316 169006 006 999 999 03
022730 2835N 07658W 4275 07144 0430 -112 -274 183006 006 007 000 03
022800 2835N 07701W 4273 07146 0430 -114 -290 167006 006 999 999 03
022830 2834N 07704W 4274 07145 0430 -114 -269 176006 006 007 000 03
022900 2834N 07706W 4274 07144 0430 -115 -247 181005 005 007 000 03
022930 2834N 07709W 4274 07145 0430 -117 -233 191004 005 008 000 03
023000 2833N 07712W 4274 07144 0430 -116 -230 191005 005 006 000 03
023030 2833N 07715W 4274 07145 0430 -118 -224 190004 004 004 000 03
023100 2833N 07718W 4274 07144 0430 -119 -233 194004 004 004 000 03
023130 2832N 07721W 4275 07143 0430 -121 -229 158003 003 006 000 00
023200 2832N 07724W 4275 07143 0429 -121 -223 141003 004 005 000 03
023230 2832N 07727W 4274 07143 0430 -120 -223 130004 004 006 000 03
023300 2831N 07730W 4275 07143 0430 -119 -234 123003 004 004 000 03
023330 2831N 07733W 4274 07143 0430 -118 -223 141003 003 003 000 03
023400 2831N 07736W 4274 07143 0430 -119 -201 136003 003 004 000 03
023430 2830N 07739W 4275 07143 0429 -120 -199 127004 005 004 000 03



Graphics with Google Earth overlay from http://tropicalatlantic.com/

[HURAKAN]

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 29.1N 74.8W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


They should be leaving base about now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

609
URNT15 KNHC 280239
AF301 0705A DANNY HDOB 03 20090828
022930 3019N 08854W 7501 02573 0139 +095 +007 352013 014 999 999 03
023000 3020N 08853W 7264 02839 0135 +082 -010 343013 013 999 999 03
023030 3021N 08851W 7022 03117 0136 +064 -019 340015 016 999 999 03
023100 3022N 08850W 6825 03352 0138 +049 -038 318017 017 999 999 03
023130 3022N 08850W 6825 03352 0136 +037 -053 304013 014 999 999 03
023200 3024N 08847W 6454 03806 0140 +020 -066 286015 015 999 999 03
023230 3026N 08845W 6272 04036 0145 +003 -100 281015 015 999 999 03
023300 3027N 08843W 6091 04271 0144 -012 -111 284013 014 999 999 03
023330 3028N 08842W 5906 04510 0142 -028 -135 298011 012 999 999 03
023400 3029N 08840W 5745 04730 0145 -043 -185 304012 013 999 999 03
023430 3030N 08839W 5580 04959 0133 -053 -143 326010 011 999 999 03
023500 3032N 08837W 5442 05158 0214 -065 -156 324011 012 999 999 03
023530 3033N 08836W 5327 05326 0224 -067 -263 301006 008 999 999 03
023600 3034N 08834W 5217 05488 0230 -074 -366 257003 005 999 999 03
023630 3035N 08832W 5082 05691 0239 -088 -398 062001 003 999 999 03
023700 3037N 08831W 4969 05867 0247 -103 -408 098005 007 999 999 03
023730 3038N 08829W 4824 06100 0261 -118 -410 114004 006 999 999 03
023800 3039N 08827W 4750 06216 0267 -126 -416 187003 004 999 999 03
023830 3040N 08826W 4650 06374 0271 -136 -413 108004 005 999 999 03
023900 3041N 08824W 4559 06525 0280 -151 -404 086005 007 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

698
URNT15 KNHC 280249
AF301 0705A DANNY HDOB 04 20090828
023930 3043N 08823W 4454 06705 0291 -158 -401 037010 012 999 999 03
024000 3044N 08821W 4384 06831 0301 -164 -405 020011 012 999 999 03
024030 3044N 08819W 4324 06933 0304 -173 -409 013010 010 999 999 03
024100 3044N 08817W 4259 07049 0310 -184 -413 009007 008 999 999 03
024130 3044N 08814W 4194 07160 0314 -196 -417 357004 005 999 999 03
024200 3044N 08812W 4124 07284 0318 -203 -418 138004 006 999 999 03
024230 3044N 08810W 4051 07418 0325 -214 -387 144011 012 999 999 03
024300 3044N 08808W 3977 07554 0331 -222 -343 129013 014 999 999 03
024330 3045N 08805W 3905 07690 0338 -227 -344 116015 015 999 999 03
024400 3045N 08803W 3859 07778 0342 -233 -361 124014 015 999 999 03
024430 3045N 08801W 3818 07857 0345 -240 -379 130013 013 999 999 03
024500 3045N 08759W 3773 07942 0348 -248 -388 131012 012 999 999 03
024530 3045N 08757W 3753 07983 0351 -255 -392 131012 012 999 999 03
024600 3045N 08754W 3756 07974 0348 -255 -403 128012 012 999 999 03
024630 3045N 08752W 3758 07969 0345 -255 -411 125012 013 999 999 03
024700 3046N 08749W 3758 07965 0343 -255 -414 130012 012 999 999 03
024730 3046N 08749W 3758 07965 0342 -255 -415 131012 012 999 999 03
024800 3046N 08744W 3758 07965 0342 -255 -418 137012 013 999 999 03
024830 3046N 08741W 3756 07966 0341 -255 -421 131013 013 999 999 03
024900 3046N 08738W 3759 07961 0341 -253 -426 139013 014 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

['CaneFreak]

This thing is starting to make a comeback this evening....convection is refiring over the LLC...all bets are off...in the next 24 hours....Danny will strengthen all he is going to strengthen (warm processes)...so...we'll see...Hatteras could still get rolled up...stay tuned...

[ROCK]

it's a sheared mess right now...that convection is not over the center but still displaced to the east. It need to persist over night and grow.

[Swimdude]

Wow! 10pm report says it's "very disorganized" now, with only 42 kts FL about 180 miles east of the center. 42kts FL doesn't support TS at surface, not to mention the lack of banding and lack of convection. Well, time for bed.

Will focus on 94L tomorrow, but still keep an eye on "TS" Danny.

Until I see a reason to do otherwise, I'll adapt your form of referring to Danny, with the "TS" in quotations.

[StormingB81]

I see NC issued "TS" Watches. If it is even that in a day or two. I guess we will see. This season is just odd all together. Almost september and no real threats to the united states. Well I take that back. Tropical Storm Claudette went ashore in Florida and Bill gave some people a scare but all in all besides out in the open waters it has been very calm.