ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Windtalker1]

I'm glad some people can find that center because as hard as I look I can not find one now(and no it is not because I am looking at a visible in the dark!). When was recon in there last? Some of the visibles posted earlier show that it did have a definite llcc even at 5 pm, but I'm not so sure there is one now. If someone can find a current sat view that shows the center(not marked, but maybe circled) I'd like to see it.

Never mind. Thanks to tolakram for posting that loop. I had not found one that showed it, but it is still definitely there and appears to be moving N.

With a jog to the left on the last frame.

[HurricaneBelle]

Just about the most poorly-organized TS I've ever seen (apologies to Grace, 2003).

No need to apologize to Grace. At least Grace, as bad as she was, looked like half a tropical storm. Danny looks like about a quarter of one.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280134
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 33 20090828
012500 2907N 07125W 6967 03227 0132 +092 +075 158020 022 999 999 03
012530 2909N 07127W 6967 03226 0135 +090 +076 156020 020 999 999 03
012600 2911N 07128W 6967 03226 0136 +089 +080 157021 021 999 999 03
012630 2913N 07129W 6968 03225 0135 +089 +080 156020 020 999 999 03
012700 2915N 07130W 6967 03226 0135 +089 +080 153019 019 999 999 03
012730 2917N 07132W 6967 03226 0136 +088 +078 152019 019 999 999 03
012800 2919N 07133W 6968 03226 0138 +087 +080 151019 020 999 999 03
012830 2921N 07134W 6968 03225 0138 +087 +077 147019 019 999 999 03
012900 2923N 07135W 6967 03226 0137 +088 +078 145020 020 999 999 03
012930 2925N 07137W 6967 03226 0137 +087 +080 144020 022 999 999 03
013000 2927N 07138W 6967 03227 0139 +086 +078 143019 020 999 999 03
013030 2929N 07139W 6966 03228 0139 +086 +078 144018 019 999 999 03
013100 2930N 07141W 6969 03223 0137 +087 +079 135018 019 999 999 03
013130 2930N 07144W 6968 03224 0136 +088 +077 132017 018 999 999 03
013200 2929N 07146W 6967 03224 0129 +094 +068 135016 016 999 999 03
013230 2929N 07149W 6967 03225 0126 +096 +070 139015 016 999 999 03
013300 2929N 07151W 6907 03296 0123 +093 +062 138015 015 999 999 03
013330 2928N 07154W 6734 03505 0124 +080 +044 137015 016 999 999 03
013400 2928N 07156W 6574 03704 0127 +066 +035 141012 014 999 999 03
013430 2928N 07158W 6429 03886 0113 +061 +051 153009 009 999 999 03

[wxman57]

Is recon finding any wind to support TS strength? Even flying out to 200 miles from the center, the max FL wind I saw was 39 kts. Winds within about 100 miles of the center look to be 25 kts or less at FL.

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

With the Nighttime visible, or whatever they call this mode, the LLC looks to be hanging on, with new convection to the north (though this might be before what wxman is seeing).

Not dead yet, check this loop. firing convection ....crap

[Aric Dunn]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

With the Nighttime visible, or whatever they call this mode, the LLC looks to be hanging on, with new convection to the north (though this might be before what wxman is seeing).

Not dead yet, check this loop. firing convection ....crap

yep convection firing on the northern side of the circ..

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think there are 40kt FL winds found?

[Aric Dunn]

well still a little removed to the N and ne of the center but significantly closer than anything seen all day

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy NE Bahamas:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=41047

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280144
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 34 20090828
013500 2927N 07201W 6252 04114 0106 +050 +038 163010 011 999 999 03
013530 2927N 07203W 6085 04334 0096 +042 +019 143010 010 999 999 03
013600 2926N 07206W 5968 04492 0093 +034 +006 136012 013 999 999 03
013630 2926N 07208W 5850 04655 0090 +026 -007 132012 012 999 999 03
013700 2926N 07211W 5731 04821 0084 +019 -017 132009 009 999 999 03
013730 2925N 07213W 5629 04965 0089 +007 -022 129010 010 999 999 03
013800 2925N 07216W 5540 05093 0097 -005 -023 133009 010 999 999 03
013830 2924N 07218W 5442 05236 0291 -013 -028 151009 010 999 999 03
013900 2924N 07221W 5344 05380 0300 -020 -036 145007 009 999 999 03
013930 2924N 07224W 5247 05527 0310 -024 -077 146006 006 999 999 03
014000 2923N 07226W 5150 05675 0319 -029 -125 106004 005 999 999 03
014030 2923N 07229W 5057 05821 0330 -039 -121 075003 003 999 999 03
014100 2922N 07231W 4973 05952 0338 -049 -117 075005 006 999 999 03
014130 2922N 07234W 4916 06044 0345 -055 -122 104005 006 999 999 03
014200 2922N 07237W 4855 06144 0353 -059 -137 129008 008 999 999 03
014230 2921N 07239W 4793 06243 0359 -070 -130 118009 010 999 999 03
014300 2921N 07242W 4719 06366 0368 -080 -125 132011 013 999 999 03
014330 2921N 07245W 4650 06482 0375 -088 -140 131009 010 999 999 03
014400 2920N 07247W 4591 06578 0380 -091 -156 117010 011 999 999 03
014430 2920N 07250W 4565 06624 0385 -097 -148 108010 011 999 999 03

[vbhoutex]

Now that the ULL is moving E(I don't see a NE component yet)is it going to be enough to push Danny(if he survives)away from the OBX? The incoming trough should keep most of the E coast in the clear imo, but I am unclear how this will play out with the ULL not doing what it was expected to when it was expected to.

[Aric Dunn]

Now that the ULL is moving E(I don't see a NE component yet)is it going to be enough to push Danny(if he survives)away from the OBX? The incoming trough should keep most of the E coast in the clear imo, but I am unclear how this will play out with the ULL not doing what it was expected to when it was expected to.

thats a good question.. been trying to resolve what this east motion will do.. at the surface the steering is weak but if danny can maintain some deep convection near the center than the ull and trough will pick it up, or it gets sheared to death and we just have a remnant low . its going to be interesting to see.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the center will likely be pulled towards that new convection firing.

[ncweatherwizard]

Is recon finding any wind to support TS strength? Even flying out to 200 miles from the center, the max FL wind I saw was 39 kts. Winds within about 100 miles of the center look to be 25 kts or less at FL.

Saw a 41kt FL wind about an hour ago:

011300 2821N 07055W 6965 03230 0127 +096 +079 351041 123 999 999 03

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 280154
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY3 HDOB 35 20090828
014500 2919N 07253W 4520 06701 0389 -103 -152 087012 014 999 999 03
014530 2919N 07256W 4447 06824 0397 -105 -149 073011 013 999 999 03
014600 2918N 07258W 4379 06944 0404 -113 -155 052016 017 999 999 03
014630 2917N 07301W 4347 07003 0410 -119 -180 033021 025 999 999 03
014700 2917N 07304W 4359 06983 0408 -125 -165 037025 028 999 999 03
014730 2916N 07307W 4375 06954 0408 -118 -147 054016 025 999 999 03
014800 2915N 07309W 4356 06987 0410 -118 -196 117015 015 999 999 03
014830 2915N 07312W 4360 06979 0408 -124 -176 142012 016 999 999 03
014900 2914N 07315W 4352 06995 0409 -121 -186 180008 009 035 000 03
014930 2914N 07318W 4322 07048 0412 -120 -283 197009 009 999 999 03
015000 2914N 07321W 4297 07091 0416 -123 -293 197007 008 999 999 03
015030 2914N 07323W 4272 07138 0420 -124 -313 163006 007 999 999 03
015100 2914N 07326W 4272 07139 0422 -129 -304 199007 008 999 999 03
015130 2914N 07329W 4270 07141 0421 -129 -259 215009 009 999 999 03
015200 2914N 07332W 4271 07140 0421 -125 -292 209006 007 999 999 03
015230 2914N 07335W 4271 07140 0420 -124 -342 210006 006 999 999 03
015300 2914N 07338W 4271 07140 0420 -123 -355 206006 006 999 999 03
015330 2914N 07340W 4272 07138 0420 -122 -355 221005 005 999 999 03
015400 2913N 07343W 4271 07139 0420 -122 -353 210003 004 999 999 03
015430 2912N 07346W 4272 07138 0420 -120 -362 130002 002 999 999 03

[wxman57]

Is recon finding any wind to support TS strength? Even flying out to 200 miles from the center, the max FL wind I saw was 39 kts. Winds within about 100 miles of the center look to be 25 kts or less at FL.

Saw a 41kt FL wind about an hour ago:

011300 2821N 07055W 6965 03230 0127 +096 +079 351041 123 999 999 03

Even that looks bogus. Look at the direction - 351 deg. A 351 deg wind in the middle of a wind field of south winds? You can see it sticking out like a sore thumb in the image below. But that doesn't support it being a TS. This is at most a poorly-organized TD now (according to recon data).

[tolakram]

Looking at the rotation way up there (water vapor loop), is this the long awaited high pressure starting to build above Danny?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Also the center will likely be pulled towards that new convection firing.

Dunno looks like the other way around...firing at the center now lol...

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks Pro Mets. Great discussion. ALL of you.

x2 - plus all the other amateurs that work so hard.

[wxman57]

Looking at the rotation way up there (water vapor loop), is this the long awaited high pressure starting to build above Danny?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

It did look that way this afternoon. Doesn't appear so now. Shear may be increasing tomorrow.