ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[massweathernet]

Anybody else seeing a sudden northward jog in the last frame?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[seussianagenda]

They still don't know what is going on with danny. They are doing guess work the best they can till something happens.

My guess it would be closer to the Outerbanks then they think.JMO

i agree and i think that jack believes that too... just read the discussion... he mentions possibly having to shift the track further west... also says how the center has become better defined... does not sound like a weakening center to me.. the system as a whole is a mess... but the circulation center is just fine right now... and as long as it looks as good as it does, danny will hang on...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Being in Willoughby, should I be concerned with the western track?

[terrapintransit]

Anybody else seeing a sudden northward jog in the last frame?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I can't say I'm seeing that or any kind of jog for that matter...

[poof121]

Anybody else seeing a sudden northward jog in the last frame?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think what you're seeing is not the low level clouds.

[Aric Dunn]

I am leaning toward the Wxman theory on the exposed LLC. The curvature of the low cloud pattern indicates the circ has started to weaken to me (less sharp and symmetrical). I also think it look sub-tropical now. HOWEVER, the anticyclone over the system is forming and the convective environment is improving. I am also hedging and thinking this could stack back up overnight. It's not going anywhere right now...especially FL. I am ready for the trough already...sheesh

Yes, we can see that outflow is improving over the area of convection. That's why a new center should form there. If it doesn't then Danny may die. Will be interesting to see a recon flight into Danny now.

you know you said that earlier and recon found the center to be better defined ... so clearly nothing forming in the convection.. just people seeing what they want to see.

[massweathernet]

Anybody else seeing a sudden northward jog in the last frame?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think what you're seeing is not the low level clouds.

Hm alright. I could've swore I saw both the LLC and the convection turning northward. Perhaps my eyes deceive me and wishful thinking is kicking in .

[Aric Dunn]

oh and people .. all the north motion talk .. is completely dependent on the ull over LA moving NE .. and still no real signs of that happening.. the window is closing fast..

[vbhoutex]

Danny still looks to be elongating SW-NE to me at all levels, especially at the surface. Personally, I am starting to have doubts that Danny is going to survive more than 24 hours, at least as a TS or TC. Go ahead now and tell me why I am wrong.

[ConvergenceZone]

Danny still looks to be elongating SW-NE to me at all levels, especially at the surface. Personally, I am starting to have doubts that Danny is going to survive more than 24 hours, at least as a TS or TC. Go ahead now and tell me why I am wrong.

I mentioned that I didn't think it would survive yesterday and was told how wrong I was and how much crow I would be eating...Looks like the crow might be eaten by those who screamed "development" , but we'll see...

[poof121]

oh and people .. all the north motion talk .. is completely dependent on the ull over LA moving NE .. and still no real signs of that happening.. the window is closing fast..

The ULL seems to be moving SE. What implications will that have?

[Aric Dunn]

oh and people .. all the north motion talk .. is completely dependent on the ull over LA moving NE .. and still no real signs of that happening.. the window is closing fast..

The ULL seems to be moving SE. What implications will that have?

I'm not sure that is movement .. the circulation of that thing is like a football and may just appear to be moving se .. so in a few hours if it still seems to be moving then maybe its the start but right now to early to tell ..

as for what it will mean .. more shear ! .. hehe

[Derek Ortt]

I'm starting to think dissipation may occur as well. WV shows that the UL is dropping directly onto Danny. Has eroded most of the convection

[storms NC]

As most of us know it will come down to with in 150 mile either way to the east or to the west. If if go more to the west the more it will comeinland at Wilm the more east it go more out to sea. So any one on the East Coast Please stay tune to your News TV station. Things can change fast. I am not saying it is comeing into NC but at this point I would be safe and watch the news in case. JMO

[tailgater]

I'm starting to think dissipation may occur as well. WV shows that the UL is dropping directly onto Danny. Has eroded most of the convection

I'm in agreement with you on this one. Too many things tearing at him.

[wxman57]

I'm starting to think dissipation may occur as well. WV shows that the UL is dropping directly onto Danny. Has eroded most of the convection

Yeah, tops warming, convection decreasing. Die, Danny, die!

['CaneFreak]

Sorry guys...this thing aint gonna die...until that LLC dies...it will still be a threat...sorry...

[tailgater]

oh and people .. all the north motion talk .. is completely dependent on the ull over LA moving NE .. and still no real signs of that happening.. the window is closing fast..

I don't know about the timing but the ULL is now over SE La and moving westward. Check this loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[wxman57]

Anybody else seeing a sudden northward jog in the last frame?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Yep, I can see that. Looks like that low level swirl jogged north a good bit in the past hour. But it's also hard to see now with the light fading. Could be an illusion.

[OuterBanker]

Did anyone see if Danny signed a living will. Will someone pull the plug please.

This is agonizing.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm starting to think dissipation may occur as well. WV shows that the UL is dropping directly onto Danny. Has eroded most of the convection

thats possible too.. the low level steering is weak if this stays sheared the upper trough will come and take the rest of the convection leaving a slowly dieing swirl behind ..