ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but I don't put too much weight if any on the GFS especially 10 days out.
I'm still waiting on the direct hit from Bill on N.O.

The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[cycloneye]

Wow,look at SHIP how bullish is with intensity.

18 UTC Bam Models

532
WHXX01 KWBC 271856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC THU AUG 27 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090827 1800 090828 0600 090828 1800 090829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 27.0W 11.6N 29.6W 12.7N 32.3W 13.4N 35.2W
BAMD 10.7N 27.0W 11.0N 29.4W 11.4N 31.7W 12.0N 34.0W
BAMM 10.7N 27.0W 11.2N 29.7W 11.6N 32.4W 12.2N 35.0W
LBAR 10.7N 27.0W 10.9N 29.8W 11.4N 33.0W 12.0N 36.0W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090829 1800 090830 1800 090831 1800 090901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 38.4W 14.1N 44.5W 13.6N 48.5W 12.7N 50.8W
BAMD 12.8N 36.2W 14.5N 39.6W 15.3N 41.4W 16.4N 42.8W
BAMM 12.9N 37.6W 14.1N 42.1W 14.1N 44.8W 13.9N 46.7W
LBAR 12.8N 39.1W 14.5N 44.7W 14.5N 48.2W 15.8N 45.2W
SHIP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS
DSHP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 27.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 21.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Aquawind]

Nice loopage littlevince! 94L will be going red on the NHC maps soon.

[Blown Away]

The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Starting on 9/5 it seems the ridge is building SE and if 94L takes a traditional track it will be past 60W at that point and could get trapped under that building ridge. I have a feeling this will be one of those nail biters for the NE Caribbean.

[AtlanticWind]

New BAMS and BAMd not as far off speed as last run.

[southerngale]

This is not a CMC thread. It's garbage anyway. If it were good, NOLA would have already been crushed this season. We all know the best last and this year, EURO.

Troughs are stronger this year so don't put too much emphasis on the "Bermuda High". I think it's future storms that could cause trouble to the US, not this one.

Actually, it is. It's the CMC thread, the Euro thread, the GFS thread, etc. It's the computer models thread for 94L. ALL models can be posted and discussed here.

[Ivanhater]

12 z Euro not developing much, but does show the pattern change. Trough in the western U.S building ridge in the east

[RL3AO]

Looks like the GFS and Euro are hitting at a pretty strong omega block over the US in this next week. By day 7 they are hinting at the troughs not digging as deep off the east coast. This could be an interesting system.

Also, if it takes its sweet time disconnecting from the ITCZ, it could get interesting for the islands.

Thats a long way out though.

[otowntiger]

12 z Euro not developing much, but does show the pattern change. Trough in the western U.S building ridge in the east

That is interesting about the synoptic pattern, but the other big mitigating factor is apparently several of the models are not developing 94L for some reason. Maybe its the shear that Derek alluded to regarding the divergent tracks produced by the BAM suite. The pattern can be there all day and it won't mean a thing if theres no cyclone to direct westward. Just a thought. We shall see.

[Stormcenter]

Let's not forget we are in an El Nino season so despite the possible
pattern change conditions may not be so hot for development anyway.
Maybe that's why the model aren't jumping on the development
bandwagon just yet.

[cycloneye]

What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.

[AtlanticWind]

What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.

Dont forget GFDL and HWRF , they do show hurricane from this system

[Typhoon_Willie]

It will be interesting to watch though. Cycloneye mentioned that the ships model is quite bullish on this system.

[cycloneye]

What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.

Dont forget GFDL and HWRF , they do show hurricane from this system

Yup,forgot those.

[otowntiger]

What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.

See the last few posts in the models thread. I think the models may be onto something as a prohibitive factor otherwise they would be more bullish on development. As an example apparently they saw inhibiting factors for Ana and the same models were correctly bullish with Bill.

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to watch though. Cycloneye mentioned that the ships model is quite bullish on this system.

SHIP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS
DSHP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS

[drezee]

Not sure why people are so skeptical about this one...it has the long lead tail. This is a classic Cape Verde system. Once it gets some latitiude it will go and I mean go. It needs to do it soon though or the tail will get too far in front.

[AtlanticWind]

Let's not forget we are in an El Nino season so despite the possible
pattern change conditions may not be so hot for development anyway.
Maybe that's why the model aren't jumping on the development
bandwagon just yet.

Most Models are bullish on this , HWRF , GFDL, SHIPS, Canadian model, GFS(somewhat)

[The Eye Wall]

Let's not forget we are in an El Nino season so despite the possible
pattern change conditions may not be so hot for development anyway.
Maybe that's why the model aren't jumping on the development
bandwagon just yet.

Most Models are bullish on this , HWRF , GFDL, SHIPS, Canadian model, GFS(somewhat)

I was just going to say that the HWRF and GFDL bring this to a cat. 1 hurricane in the coming days.

[smw1981]

I'm sorry but I don't put too much weight if any on the GFS especially 10 days out.
I'm still waiting on the direct hit from Bill on N.O.

The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Do you put weight on ANY of the models 10 days out??? I mean really...some may be good for the short term, but none are worth much 10 days out...