ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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Re:

#101 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:59 pm

I'm sorry but I don't put too much weight if any on the GFS especially 10 days out.
I'm still waiting on the direct hit from Bill on N.O. :)


Frank2 wrote:The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#102 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:01 pm

Wow,look at SHIP how bullish is with intensity.

18 UTC Bam Models

532
WHXX01 KWBC 271856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC THU AUG 27 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090827 1800 090828 0600 090828 1800 090829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 27.0W 11.6N 29.6W 12.7N 32.3W 13.4N 35.2W
BAMD 10.7N 27.0W 11.0N 29.4W 11.4N 31.7W 12.0N 34.0W
BAMM 10.7N 27.0W 11.2N 29.7W 11.6N 32.4W 12.2N 35.0W
LBAR 10.7N 27.0W 10.9N 29.8W 11.4N 33.0W 12.0N 36.0W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090829 1800 090830 1800 090831 1800 090901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 38.4W 14.1N 44.5W 13.6N 48.5W 12.7N 50.8W
BAMD 12.8N 36.2W 14.5N 39.6W 15.3N 41.4W 16.4N 42.8W
BAMM 12.9N 37.6W 14.1N 42.1W 14.1N 44.8W 13.9N 46.7W
LBAR 12.8N 39.1W 14.5N 44.7W 14.5N 48.2W 15.8N 45.2W
SHIP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS
DSHP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 27.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 21.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#103 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:01 pm

Nice loopage littlevince! 94L will be going red on the NHC maps soon.
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Re:

#104 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:05 pm

Frank2 wrote:The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html


Starting on 9/5 it seems the ridge is building SE and if 94L takes a traditional track it will be past 60W at that point and could get trapped under that building ridge. I have a feeling this will be one of those nail biters for the NE Caribbean.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#105 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:05 pm

New BAMS and BAMd not as far off speed as last run.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#106 Postby southerngale » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:07 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:This is not a CMC thread. It's garbage anyway. If it were good, NOLA would have already been crushed this season. We all know the best last and this year, EURO.

Troughs are stronger this year so don't put too much emphasis on the "Bermuda High". I think it's future storms that could cause trouble to the US, not this one.


Actually, it is. It's the CMC thread, the Euro thread, the GFS thread, etc. It's the computer models thread for 94L. ALL models can be posted and discussed here. :)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#107 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:08 pm

12 z Euro not developing much, but does show the pattern change. Trough in the western U.S building ridge in the east

Image
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#108 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:08 pm

Looks like the GFS and Euro are hitting at a pretty strong omega block over the US in this next week. By day 7 they are hinting at the troughs not digging as deep off the east coast. This could be an interesting system.

Also, if it takes its sweet time disconnecting from the ITCZ, it could get interesting for the islands.

Thats a long way out though.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#109 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:14 pm

Ivanhater wrote:12 z Euro not developing much, but does show the pattern change. Trough in the western U.S building ridge in the east

Image
That is interesting about the synoptic pattern, but the other big mitigating factor is apparently several of the models are not developing 94L for some reason. Maybe its the shear that Derek alluded to regarding the divergent tracks produced by the BAM suite. The pattern can be there all day and it won't mean a thing if theres no cyclone to direct westward. Just a thought. We shall see.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#110 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:18 pm

Let's not forget we are in an El Nino season so despite the possible
pattern change conditions may not be so hot for development anyway.
Maybe that's why the model aren't jumping on the development
bandwagon just yet.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#111 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:22 pm

What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#112 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.

Dont forget GFDL and HWRF , they do show hurricane from this system
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#113 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:24 pm

It will be interesting to watch though. Cycloneye mentioned that the ships model is quite bullish on this system.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#114 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:25 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.

Dont forget GFDL and HWRF , they do show hurricane from this system


Yup,forgot those. :)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#115 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:What I see is a somewhat vague model support for 94L so far except for SHIP and CMC that make it a hurricane.The question is why the majority of the models dont see this system developing in a strong way.I dont see big hurdles at this time,such as sal,lower ssts,strong shear.
See the last few posts in the models thread. I think the models may be onto something as a prohibitive factor otherwise they would be more bullish on development. As an example apparently they saw inhibiting factors for Ana and the same models were correctly bullish with Bill.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#116 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:28 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:It will be interesting to watch though. Cycloneye mentioned that the ships model is quite bullish on this system.


SHIP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS
DSHP 70KTS 85KTS 91KTS 93KTS
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#117 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:31 pm

Not sure why people are so skeptical about this one...it has the long lead tail. This is a classic Cape Verde system. Once it gets some latitiude it will go and I mean go. It needs to do it soon though or the tail will get too far in front.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#118 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Let's not forget we are in an El Nino season so despite the possible
pattern change conditions may not be so hot for development anyway.
Maybe that's why the model aren't jumping on the development
bandwagon just yet.

Most Models are bullish on this , HWRF , GFDL, SHIPS, Canadian model, GFS(somewhat)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#119 Postby The Eye Wall » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:35 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Let's not forget we are in an El Nino season so despite the possible
pattern change conditions may not be so hot for development anyway.
Maybe that's why the model aren't jumping on the development
bandwagon just yet.

Most Models are bullish on this , HWRF , GFDL, SHIPS, Canadian model, GFS(somewhat)


I was just going to say that the HWRF and GFDL bring this to a cat. 1 hurricane in the coming days.
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Re: Re:

#120 Postby smw1981 » Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:40 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I'm sorry but I don't put too much weight if any on the GFS especially 10 days out.
I'm still waiting on the direct hit from Bill on N.O. :)


Frank2 wrote:The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html



Do you put weight on ANY of the models 10 days out??? I mean really...some may be good for the short term, but none are worth much 10 days out...
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