ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

"X" marks the spot where the plane found the center. As slowly westward as its progressing now, and because of the reformation, odds of any significant east coast impact continue to diminish.

And it's still not heading for Florida:

[O Town]

Looking healthier this a.m.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271104
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 19 20090827
105430 2716N 07008W 6474 03803 0094 +058 +049 239016 021 043 020 03
105500 2715N 07006W 6416 03869 0078 +056 +056 215030 034 046 021 03
105530 2715N 07004W 6416 03872 0082 +056 +053 212031 036 050 021 03
105600 2714N 07001W 6431 03860 0087 +057 +054 199030 037 049 024 00
105630 2713N 06959W 6353 03952 0075 +053 +053 184035 037 039 039 03
105700 2713N 06957W 6392 03903 0078 +055 +055 189036 039 051 033 03
105730 2712N 06955W 6443 03836 0088 +051 +051 186036 038 055 030 03
105800 2711N 06953W 6457 03814 0095 +046 +046 185034 037 047 039 03
105830 2710N 06950W 6445 03836 0095 +048 +048 174035 038 041 010 03
105900 2710N 06948W 6442 03841 0092 +053 +053 176035 037 999 999 03
105930 2709N 06946W 6447 03837 0094 +054 +054 179031 032 999 999 03
110000 2710N 06944W 6444 03842 0096 +053 +053 182032 032 999 999 03
110030 2711N 06941W 6445 03843 0104 +050 +050 185029 031 999 999 03
110100 2712N 06940W 6447 03843 0106 +050 +050 183029 031 999 999 03
110130 2715N 06939W 6445 03846 0105 +052 +051 181031 031 999 999 03
110200 2717N 06939W 6438 03857 0102 +053 +053 174033 038 038 012 03
110230 2720N 06939W 6447 03842 0107 +050 +049 177038 039 999 999 03
110300 2722N 06940W 6430 03865 0113 +046 +045 175036 037 999 999 03
110330 2724N 06940W 6428 03865 0112 +046 +042 174037 037 999 999 03
110400 2727N 06941W 6435 03855 0111 +047 +046 170039 041 039 006 03

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Yes, looks healthier, sort of. Not a difficult challenge for Danny. Here's a real challenge, Danny. Can you look like a tropical storm today?

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271114
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 20 20090827
110430 2729N 06942W 6432 03861 0112 +046 +046 172037 038 999 999 03
110500 2731N 06943W 6437 03855 0112 +047 +047 172036 038 999 999 03
110530 2734N 06944W 6437 03858 0113 +048 +046 166036 039 999 999 03
110600 2736N 06945W 6449 03841 0107 +050 +049 159042 048 999 999 03
110630 2738N 06947W 6414 03883 0108 +046 +046 155042 045 048 017 03
110700 2740N 06948W 6422 03879 0114 +046 +046 148037 043 040 014 03
110730 2742N 06950W 6429 03871 0113 +050 +048 159031 035 999 999 03
110800 2743N 06952W 6428 03873 0121 +044 +044 182022 024 999 999 03
110830 2745N 06954W 6434 03865 0118 +047 +046 192024 026 999 999 03
110900 2747N 06955W 6442 03855 0104 +056 +041 148009 012 999 999 03
110930 2748N 06957W 6435 03858 0090 +062 +044 154006 010 999 999 03
111000 2750N 06959W 6447 03843 0070 +074 +039 100011 016 999 999 03
111030 2751N 07001W 6466 03814 0081 +067 +039 138018 021 999 999 03
111100 2753N 07002W 6472 03805 0069 +074 +037 134017 021 999 999 03
111130 2755N 07004W 6448 03836 0092 +056 +056 144026 032 999 999 03
111200 2757N 07006W 6440 03849 0095 +054 +054 144042 043 039 012 03
111230 2759N 07008W 6430 03864 0097 +056 +044 152029 036 999 999 03
111300 2801N 07009W 6443 03845 0089 +062 +028 131026 029 999 999 03
111330 2802N 07011W 6439 03853 0104 +053 +037 142025 026 999 999 03
111400 2804N 07013W 6441 03850 0108 +050 +037 149026 028 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271124
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 21 20090827
111430 2806N 07015W 6440 03850 0098 +057 +033 137023 023 999 999 03
111500 2808N 07017W 6440 03850 0099 +056 +033 130021 021 999 999 03
111530 2809N 07018W 6440 03848 0101 +053 +045 136023 025 999 999 03
111600 2811N 07020W 6439 03853 0099 +054 +054 143024 027 999 999 03
111630 2813N 07022W 6443 03849 0095 +060 +047 150015 016 999 999 03
111700 2815N 07024W 6443 03848 0096 +059 +040 147016 018 999 999 03
111730 2816N 07026W 6443 03850 0099 +058 +039 152020 022 999 999 03
111800 2818N 07027W 6440 03854 0101 +058 +034 141016 017 999 999 03
111830 2820N 07029W 6442 03851 0105 +055 +038 131018 018 999 999 03
111900 2821N 07031W 6440 03853 0104 +055 +038 127017 017 999 999 03
111930 2823N 07033W 6442 03850 0102 +056 +040 125018 018 999 999 03
112000 2825N 07035W 6440 03853 0101 +055 +048 121016 016 999 999 03
112030 2826N 07036W 6442 03852 0101 +056 +048 119017 019 999 999 03
112100 2828N 07038W 6442 03852 0103 +054 +054 124017 018 999 999 03
112130 2830N 07040W 6442 03850 0103 +053 +052 133020 023 999 999 03
112200 2831N 07042W 6441 03852 0107 +052 +049 128021 022 999 999 03
112230 2833N 07043W 6444 03850 0105 +054 +051 120022 024 999 999 03
112300 2835N 07045W 6440 03855 0106 +055 +043 123022 022 999 999 03
112330 2837N 07047W 6439 03857 0106 +054 +045 122023 023 999 999 03
112400 2838N 07049W 6436 03861 0100 +057 +056 119021 022 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271134
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 22 20090827
112430 2840N 07051W 6440 03856 0098 +058 +058 117016 017 999 999 03
112500 2841N 07053W 6471 03813 0101 +057 +057 115016 018 999 999 03
112530 2841N 07055W 6557 03704 0105 +061 +061 110021 024 999 999 03
112600 2840N 07057W 6652 03587 0105 +068 +068 119027 027 999 999 03
112630 2838N 07058W 6761 03452 0099 +079 +075 121032 036 999 999 03
112700 2836N 07059W 6849 03343 0099 +085 +084 124039 041 999 999 03
112730 2834N 07101W 6934 03241 0107 +083 +083 125040 043 040 017 03
112800 2832N 07102W 6959 03210 0111 +083 +083 126028 035 999 999 03
112830 2830N 07103W 6959 03210 0107 +085 +085 141013 014 999 999 03
112900 2828N 07104W 6966 03201 0106 +087 +087 156014 015 040 002 03
112930 2827N 07105W 6957 03211 0106 +086 +086 141013 014 999 999 03
113000 2825N 07106W 6956 03214 0106 +087 +086 154016 017 999 999 03
113030 2823N 07107W 6956 03212 0099 +092 +089 154016 017 999 999 03
113100 2821N 07108W 6962 03203 0098 +092 +081 158013 014 999 999 03
113130 2820N 07110W 6957 03208 0097 +090 +090 144022 028 999 999 03
113200 2818N 07111W 6950 03215 0097 +089 +089 147019 021 999 999 03
113230 2816N 07112W 6956 03213 0102 +089 +083 140019 020 999 999 03
113300 2814N 07113W 6953 03216 0099 +094 +069 134020 020 030 012 03
113330 2812N 07114W 6952 03219 0095 +099 +064 141022 023 999 999 03
113400 2811N 07115W 6953 03219 0096 +099 +059 150027 029 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271144
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 23 20090827
113430 2809N 07116W 6953 03218 0098 +098 +061 147028 029 999 999 03
113500 2807N 07117W 6952 03220 0094 +101 +056 147027 028 999 999 03
113530 2805N 07118W 6951 03219 0083 +108 +050 144028 029 999 999 03
113600 2804N 07119W 6954 03213 0082 +107 +052 141027 027 999 999 03
113630 2802N 07121W 6953 03213 0075 +112 +047 136029 029 999 999 03
113700 2800N 07122W 6955 03210 0073 +111 +057 133025 026 008 000 03
113730 2758N 07123W 6952 03216 0089 +099 +063 145024 025 999 999 03
113800 2756N 07124W 6953 03214 0094 +095 +067 149025 026 014 000 03
113830 2755N 07125W 6953 03212 0090 +096 +077 147025 026 011 000 03
113900 2753N 07126W 6959 03203 0081 +102 +085 139025 026 999 999 03
113930 2751N 07128W 6970 03191 0091 +094 +092 142025 025 014 000 03
114000 2749N 07129W 6958 03206 0092 +093 +088 141023 024 010 000 03
114030 2748N 07130W 6958 03206 0090 +096 +080 139023 024 999 999 03
114100 2746N 07131W 6958 03207 0083 +103 +074 136023 024 999 999 03
114130 2744N 07132W 6958 03208 0082 +105 +065 136024 025 014 000 03
114200 2742N 07133W 6958 03209 0087 +102 +064 145022 023 010 000 03
114230 2741N 07134W 6958 03208 0085 +104 +059 143020 020 007 000 03
114300 2739N 07136W 6958 03207 0086 +103 +060 144021 022 009 000 03
114330 2737N 07137W 6959 03206 0086 +102 +059 143021 022 010 000 03
114400 2735N 07138W 6957 03206 0089 +096 +074 144020 021 008 000 00

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...TS DANNY STRENGTHENS WHILE REMAINING WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...
...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...



TS DANNY EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE FL EAST
COAST TONIGHT WHILE RECURVING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO A SLIGHT NE
COMPONENT AT THE COAST LATE...LIMITING COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE OF
MAKING IT ASHORE. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL EXIST
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE AREAS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN DRY PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...
FCST WILL BE INDIRECTLY TIED TO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DANNY. A HIGH AMP TROF OVER THE MIDWEST IS MOVING INTO POSITION TO
MERGE WITH AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. THE MERGER
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY DAYBREAK FRI...WHICH SERVE TO PULL T.C. DANNY
RAPIDLY TO THE N AND WELL EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.

DANNY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO PLACE THE ERN
PENINSULA DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ITS PERIPHERAL
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE...AS WELL AS ITS DISTRIBUTION THRU THE COLUMN.

GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES ~2.0"...MUCH OF IT LOCATED
ABV H85 WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LARGELY AOA 4C
DEG. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES ~2.3" WITH DEPRESSIONS BLO
3C DEG. STEERING FLOW ALSO IS UNCERTAIN AS GFS FAVORS A S/SWRLY
FLOW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR...WHILE NAM IS SOLIDLY SW. THE RESULT IS
MOS POP DISCREPANCY OF ~20%. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH 50% INTERIOR
AND 40% COAST AS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW BOTH SEABREEZES TO FORM EARLY...BUT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO ALLOW
EITHER THE EAST OR WEST COAST SEABREEZE TO MAKE RAPID INLAND
PROGRESS. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.


SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

[HURAKAN]

[Downdraft]

Miami NWS providing some bonus data to NHC this morning, I am sure they weren't the only ones pulling some extra duty:


A SPECIAL SOUNDING WAS DONE AT 06Z THIS MORNING...WITH A PWAT OF
2.2 INCHES WHICH IS WHAT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

PWAT of 2.2 resulting in convection, no way. Ok, back to crazy Danny.

PWAT of 2.2 in an unstable air mass with sea breeze for a lift sounds like convection to me. More than enough moisture to ring out.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271154
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 24 20090827
114430 2734N 07139W 6957 03206 0088 +098 +062 151021 022 005 000 00
114500 2732N 07140W 6956 03207 0085 +102 +057 151020 020 006 000 03
114530 2730N 07141W 6957 03207 0089 +098 +066 151020 021 005 000 03
114600 2728N 07142W 6957 03207 0075 +111 +048 147018 018 007 000 03
114630 2727N 07144W 6957 03208 0074 +113 +043 150016 017 006 000 03
114700 2725N 07145W 6958 03207 0074 +113 +041 159015 016 005 000 03
114730 2723N 07146W 6958 03205 0073 +112 +042 167014 014 005 000 00
114800 2721N 07147W 6957 03206 0075 +111 +043 164013 013 006 000 00
114830 2719N 07148W 6958 03204 0075 +110 +043 165013 013 999 999 03
114900 2718N 07149W 6959 03202 0073 +111 +041 161010 011 999 999 03
114930 2716N 07150W 6958 03203 0074 +110 +040 164009 010 999 999 03
115000 2714N 07152W 6957 03203 0068 +113 +042 162008 008 999 999 03
115030 2714N 07154W 6958 03203 0067 +114 +047 168006 007 999 999 03
115100 2713N 07156W 6959 03201 0068 +113 +047 154005 005 999 999 03
115130 2712N 07159W 6958 03203 0069 +113 +042 174004 005 999 999 03
115200 2711N 07201W 6959 03201 0066 +116 +040 186005 005 999 999 03
115230 2711N 07203W 6960 03201 0064 +117 +039 179006 006 999 999 03
115300 2711N 07206W 6960 03201 0068 +114 +039 178005 006 999 999 03
115330 2711N 07208W 6959 03200 0067 +114 +036 166004 004 999 999 03
115400 2711N 07210W 6957 03202 0066 +115 +035 190004 004 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[btangy]

The N ward reformation of Danny has put it in a higher shear zone, so I'm not expecting the upper level conditions to improve as the models are saying it should today. SW-ly shear should continue with convection confined to the downshear side and occasional LLC centers being flung out from the mass of convection creating the illusion that Danny is moving westward (I'm sure there will still be numerous posts today about how Danny has shifted it's movement toward the W as the swirl watching begins... it has not!). New LLCs will form underneath the strong area of convection.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

The center is exposed near 27.5 north and 72.7 west on high res visible. All convection is well east of the center with no signs of any increase in organization. Look for no change in intensity unless convection develops near the center.