Strong tropical wave ssw of Cape Verde islands

[cycloneye]

The latest

[Ivanhater]

If you're relying on the UKMET go find another model. It's been horrible this year.

It seems you are missing the point. The point being ALL the models showing a pattern change with a stronger subtropical ridge connecting with ridging off the eastern U.S .The UKMET was in reference to possible location of this particular system. The pattern change will be relevant to ANY storm that develops in any part of the Atlantic.

[lonelymike]

If you're relying on the UKMET go find another model. It's been horrible this year.

It seems you are missing the point. The point being ALL the models showing a pattern change with a stronger subtropical ridge connecting with ridging off the eastern U.S .The UKMET was in reference to possible location of this particular system. The pattern change will be relevant to ANY storm that develops in any part of the Atlantic.

Oh I get the point....we'll have to wait and see about the pattern change. Very hard to change a pattern at the snap of a finger.

[Ivanhater]

If you're relying on the UKMET go find another model. It's been horrible this year.

It seems you are missing the point. The point being ALL the models showing a pattern change with a stronger subtropical ridge connecting with ridging off the eastern U.S .The UKMET was in reference to possible location of this particular system. The pattern change will be relevant to ANY storm that develops in any part of the Atlantic.

Oh I get the point....we'll have to wait and see about the pattern change. Very hard to change a pattern at the snap of a finger.

Exactly, it is in the 8 to 14 day range which coincides with the models building the ridge in tandem with this system. However, I think the bigger point is the overall pattern, not system specific.

Long-term Synopsis for Wed Aug 26th

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2009

DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION.

[lonelymike]

Yeah the weakness is supposed to be right over Pensacola eh?

BTW what's JB been saying lately?

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, if there was going to be a long tracker that makes it all the way across this season, climatology says now would be the time to do it. However, there have been fairly strong ridge setups predicted already this year that didn't quite work out. For example, Bill was originally predicted by the GFS to make it into the Caribbean. A small ULL caused a weakness in the ridge, and it turned, only to be picked up by a bigger trough. There are plenty of opportunities during a 3000 mile trek for a small ULL to form and send this northward, even within an otherwise strong ridge, which is why it is rare for these to make it across.

Having said that, my gut says at least one will make the journey this year, and this could be the time. Of course, if it waits until after 40W to form, that statistically raises the chances. This one isn't spinning as well as Bill was at this stage, so it might hold off until after 40...

[Ivanhater]

Yeah the weakness is supposed to be right over Pensacola eh?

BTW what's JB been saying lately?

Nah, I was thinking right over walton county

[lonelymike]

Yeah the weakness is supposed to be right over Pensacola eh?

BTW what's JB been saying lately?

Nah, I was thinking right over walton county

Ach either location would not be good for either of us. Here's hoping the Emerald Coast stays quiet hurricane wise this season.

[GeneratorPower]

To you all who live in the FL panhandle, you are blessed. I have visited there several times and I absolutely love it. It is one of the best coastal places to live in the whole country, if you ask me. Enjoy the beaches and the great weather as much as you can, on behalf of landlocked folks like me.

[cycloneye]

Ok,after the tour to Panhandle,lets go towards a long journey to the Eastern Atlantic and tour the strong wave.

[HURAKAN]

Developing faster than I expected

[cycloneye]

This had to be a invest already.

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah, wrapping into a good, round system now. Holding solid convection. I wonder what QuickSCAT has to say about it.

[expat2carib]

Erika in the making. Danny is not that impressive. Interesting Hmmmmm.

[caribsue]

I hope this one goes fishing if not us in the islands might have a problem on our hands

[lonelymike]

I hope this one goes fishing if not us in the islands might have a problem on our hands

Long range models show it north of the carribean sea in about a week.

[Evil Jeremy]

This should be an invest at this point, and I am sure it will be by the time I wake up in the morning. Oh, and code orange at 2 AM.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[Stormcenter]

A long tracker that will have to probably deal with a ton of obstacles as get closer to the peak
of the season.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg