ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[shortwave]

for the sake of stirring up the pot
it is plausable that it could roll on over to the coast.. as an exposed low level swirl wih occasional plumes of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the broad center may be opening up and elliptical. However, it should try to tighten up near the convection. It's NOT going to Florida, by the way. Upper-level winds/steering currents won't permit it. It would have to move against the mid-level wind flow to reach Florida with that upper trof digging into the FL Panhandle by late tomorrow.

seriously .. if that ull does not open up and move ne there will be no upper trough picking it up..

also i agree on the the elongation its actually seems to be shooting out to the w or wsw of the convection .. being steered by the surface flow ..
flow over central and NE florida is out of the ene to ne ... its hard to tell .. satellite images are missing..

[Aric Dunn]

for the sake of stirring up the pot
it is plausable that it could roll on over to the coast.. as an exposed low level swirl wih occasional plumes of convection.

yes.... as long as the set up stays the same with that ull not moving and the ridge over the eastern us sitting in place .. and the system being sheared it could just be a swirl in the bahamas tomorrow lol..

[shortwave]

Not so sure about that trough. seems to be planted...well maybe just about to shift eastward.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... _common+12

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the broad center may be opening up and elliptical. However, it should try to tighten up near the convection. It's NOT going to Florida, by the way. Upper-level winds/steering currents won't permit it. It would have to move against the mid-level wind flow to reach Florida with that upper trof digging into the FL Panhandle by late tomorrow.

wanted to post this in here .. but look where recon found the wind shift ... its quite far wsw of any of the convection.. center seems to be moving or elongating wsw ..

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270128
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 32 20090827
011830 2454N 06932W 7516 02584 0121 +141 +027 196030 030 999 999 03
011900 2454N 06930W 7518 02582 0121 +142 +023 198030 031 999 999 03
011930 2455N 06927W 7517 02583 0118 +145 +013 199030 030 999 999 03
012000 2455N 06925W 7519 02581 0121 +140 +039 198030 031 999 999 03
012030 2455N 06923W 7465 02642 0120 +130 +096 199024 030 023 002 03
012100 2455N 06920W 7499 02601 0122 +132 +098 205027 027 006 000 03
012130 2455N 06918W 7525 02575 0127 +132 +067 207029 030 006 000 03
012200 2455N 06915W 7425 02688 0119 +136 +037 205029 031 005 000 00
012230 2455N 06913W 7185 02961 0117 +117 +044 205028 028 006 000 03
012300 2456N 06911W 7031 03144 0124 +102 +035 208028 028 999 999 03
012330 2456N 06909W 6940 03252 0125 +094 +032 205027 027 004 000 03
012400 2456N 06906W 6767 03461 0123 +082 +027 201028 028 006 000 03
012430 2456N 06904W 6604 03662 0124 +069 +015 198025 028 005 000 03
012500 2456N 06901W 6458 03845 0122 +060 -006 205021 022 004 000 00
012530 2456N 06859W 6443 03866 0123 +058 +003 204021 023 003 000 03
012600 2458N 06857W 6439 03872 0121 +057 +031 199023 024 999 999 03
012630 2500N 06857W 6427 03889 0120 +059 +013 193022 022 005 000 03
012700 2502N 06859W 6433 03882 0120 +060 +021 193021 021 005 000 03
012730 2504N 06900W 6447 03864 0121 +060 +024 197021 021 012 000 03
012800 2506N 06902W 6460 03847 0121 +059 +026 201021 022 999 999 03

[Dave]

HDOBS # 33 cut off

URNT15 KWBC 270128
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 33 20090827
012830 2508N 06903W 6448 03860 0116 +061 +029 196021 021 999 999 03

[Emmett_Brown]

I think the conditions aloft are beginning to improve slightly... still a lot of shear, but convection is gradually building westward toward the LLC, with hints of outflow trying to get established.

Regarding the ULL over LA, yup, appears to be cutting off as the GFS predicted. As several have mentioned, the thing to watch is whether the short wave that is forecast to develop over the upper plains materializes late tomorrow and kicks the ULL currently over LA to the NE. If so, that is what will grab Danny and turn him north.

If not, I could see a scenario where Danny drifts for a while before the next trough gets him, but that is a long shot.

Complex setup.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like the broad center may be opening up and elliptical. However, it should try to tighten up near the convection. It's NOT going to Florida, by the way. Upper-level winds/steering currents won't permit it. It would have to move against the mid-level wind flow to reach Florida with that upper trof digging into the FL Panhandle by late tomorrow.

seriously .. if that ull does not open up and move ne there will be no upper trough picking it up..

also i agree on the the elongation its actually seems to be shooting out to the w or wsw of the convection .. being steered by the surface flow ..
flow over central and NE florida is out of the ene to ne ... its hard to tell .. satellite images are missing..

Yes, the low level flow is out of the ENE here in NE FL at this time. I live near St. Augustine, and a quick moving line of low topped showers came in off the Atlantic at about 5pm.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 270138
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 34 20090827
012900 2510N 06904W 6441 03869 0000 +060 +028 333011 085 999 999 23
012930 2511N 06906W 6442 03867 0118 +060 +014 193019 020 008 000 03
013000 2513N 06907W 6440 03869 0116 +061 +008 201020 021 999 999 03
013030 2515N 06908W 6440 03869 0116 +062 -009 206021 021 999 999 03
013100 2517N 06910W 6441 03869 0115 +063 -012 204022 022 999 999 03
013130 2519N 06912W 6440 03870 0119 +060 -003 205022 023 014 000 03
013200 2520N 06913W 6442 03868 0119 +060 -005 205022 022 999 999 03
013230 2522N 06915W 6440 03868 0114 +063 -006 201022 022 999 999 03
013300 2524N 06917W 6442 03865 0111 +063 +011 199022 022 999 999 03
013330 2526N 06918W 6441 03867 0113 +062 +006 199022 022 007 000 03
013400 2527N 06920W 6441 03865 0107 +065 +013 202023 023 006 000 03
013430 2529N 06922W 6442 03863 0105 +065 +014 201024 024 006 000 00
013500 2531N 06924W 6443 03862 0107 +063 +028 199024 025 999 999 03
013530 2532N 06925W 6442 03863 0100 +069 +010 195022 023 009 000 03
013600 2534N 06927W 6442 03864 0106 +065 +002 205022 022 008 000 03
013630 2535N 06929W 6441 03864 0107 +065 +001 210022 022 999 999 03
013700 2537N 06930W 6442 03862 0100 +069 -006 209020 020 999 999 03
013730 2539N 06932W 6442 03861 0101 +067 +010 206020 020 007 000 03
013800 2540N 06934W 6442 03861 0095 +073 -021 215016 017 999 999 03
013830 2542N 06935W 6442 03861 0095 +072 -017 209016 016 999 999 03

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270148
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 35 20090827
013900 2543N 06937W 6442 03859 0092 +072 +008 199017 017 999 999 03
013930 2545N 06939W 6442 03860 0096 +068 +011 195018 018 999 999 03
014000 2546N 06940W 6440 03862 0095 +068 +023 194016 017 999 999 03
014030 2548N 06942W 6441 03862 0091 +071 +017 195014 015 999 999 03
014100 2550N 06944W 6441 03860 0093 +069 +021 190016 018 999 999 03
014130 2551N 06946W 6441 03860 0089 +072 +014 196016 016 999 999 03
014200 2553N 06948W 6442 03858 0088 +072 +013 184015 016 999 999 03
014230 2554N 06949W 6441 03856 0088 +070 +033 186017 018 999 999 03
014300 2556N 06951W 6442 03856 0087 +072 +014 186017 019 999 999 03
014330 2558N 06953W 6442 03856 0082 +075 +011 196014 015 999 999 03
014400 2559N 06955W 6442 03855 0078 +076 +011 192013 014 999 999 03
014430 2601N 06957W 6442 03853 0085 +071 +019 191015 017 999 999 03
014500 2603N 06959W 6443 03852 0100 +060 +029 197020 021 999 999 03
014530 2604N 07000W 6443 03851 0103 +057 +031 201020 020 999 999 03
014600 2606N 07002W 6442 03852 0096 +062 +027 201016 018 999 999 03
014630 2607N 07004W 6441 03854 0095 +062 +028 207014 014 999 999 03
014700 2609N 07006W 6443 03851 0098 +060 +027 204016 017 999 999 03
014730 2611N 07007W 6441 03852 0103 +057 +026 210018 018 999 999 03
014800 2612N 07009W 6442 03851 0101 +058 +025 215018 019 999 999 03
014830 2614N 07011W 6442 03851 0096 +061 +026 220018 018 999 999 03

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270158
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 36 20090827
014900 2615N 07012W 6443 03851 0096 +062 +026 222018 018 999 999 03
014930 2617N 07014W 6443 03850 0090 +065 +030 220017 017 999 999 03
015000 2619N 07016W 6443 03849 0089 +065 +027 221016 016 999 999 03
015030 2620N 07018W 6444 03847 0087 +066 +028 222016 017 999 999 03
015100 2622N 07019W 6442 03848 0077 +071 +026 228015 015 999 999 03
015130 2623N 07021W 6441 03849 0076 +071 +025 234015 015 999 999 03
015200 2625N 07023W 6442 03848 0089 +063 +030 239014 014 999 999 03
015230 2626N 07024W 6442 03849 0093 +061 +033 243013 014 999 999 03
015300 2628N 07026W 6445 03846 0095 +060 +033 248012 013 999 999 03
015330 2629N 07028W 6441 03852 0092 +063 +030 274010 012 999 999 03
015400 2631N 07030W 6445 03847 0088 +066 +029 285010 010 999 999 03
015430 2632N 07032W 6441 03854 0093 +064 +026 278007 007 999 999 03
015500 2634N 07033W 6444 03849 0081 +072 +025 289005 007 999 999 03
015530 2635N 07035W 6444 03849 0085 +069 +026 288003 004 999 999 03
015600 2636N 07037W 6443 03850 0079 +073 +027 336001 001 999 999 03
015630 2638N 07039W 6443 03850 0079 +073 +023 054003 004 999 999 03
015700 2639N 07040W 6444 03849 0081 +072 +023 065004 004 999 999 03
015730 2640N 07042W 6442 03853 0085 +069 +027 071004 005 999 999 03
015800 2642N 07044W 6444 03850 0087 +068 +030 070005 005 999 999 03
015830 2643N 07046W 6442 03853 0088 +067 +030 082006 007 999 999 03

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 270156
XXAA 77027 99259 70698 07959 99010 27834 16523 00092 27035 17032
92778 22237 17536 85509 18250 18536 70152 10049 20026 88999 77999
31313 09608 80141
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 OB 11
62626 REL 2586N06977W 014136 SPG 2590N06977W 014649 WL150 17031 0
85 DLM WND 18532 009645 MBL WND 17034=

XXBB 77028 99259 70698 07959 00010 27834 11003 27237 22953 23418
33853 18456 44709 10439 55678 08857 66644 07256
21212 00010 16523 11005 16532 22962 17538 33644 20016
31313 09608 80141
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 OB 11
62626 REL 2586N06977W 014136 SPG 2590N06977W 014649 WL150 17031 0
85 DLM WND 18532 009645 MBL WND 17034=

[Dave]

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the broad center may be opening up and elliptical. However, it should try to tighten up near the convection. It's NOT going to Florida, by the way. Upper-level winds/steering currents won't permit it. It would have to move against the mid-level wind flow to reach Florida with that upper trof digging into the FL Panhandle by late tomorrow.

seriously .. if that ull does not open up and move ne there will be no upper trough picking it up..

also i agree on the the elongation its actually seems to be shooting out to the w or wsw of the convection .. being steered by the surface flow ..
flow over central and NE florida is out of the ene to ne ... its hard to tell .. satellite images are missing..

Yes, the low level flow is out of the ENE here in NE FL at this time. I live near St. Augustine, and a quick moving line of low topped showers came in off the Atlantic at about 5pm.

I live in daytona ..

[Nantucket]

I know it's is still days away....But, what do people think we can expect on Nantucket in this point in time?....Bill was a joke.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270208
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 37 20090827
015900 2645N 07048W 6443 03852 0086 +069 +030 085007 007 999 999 03
015930 2646N 07050W 6443 03852 0086 +069 +030 083006 006 999 999 03
020000 2648N 07052W 6443 03853 0081 +073 +028 095006 007 999 999 03
020030 2649N 07054W 6443 03853 0077 +076 +025 092007 007 999 999 03
020100 2650N 07055W 6444 03853 0079 +075 +027 096008 009 999 999 03
020130 2652N 07057W 6443 03854 0078 +076 +026 084011 012 999 999 03
020200 2653N 07059W 6443 03853 0071 +080 +023 086013 013 999 999 03
020230 2654N 07102W 6444 03855 0072 +081 +022 081014 014 999 999 03
020300 2654N 07104W 6443 03855 0073 +080 +023 080016 016 999 999 03
020330 2654N 07107W 6445 03854 0079 +077 +026 083016 016 999 999 03
020400 2654N 07109W 6444 03856 0082 +075 +028 081016 017 999 999 03
020430 2654N 07112W 6444 03855 0081 +076 +027 090018 018 999 999 03
020500 2654N 07115W 6443 03857 0085 +074 +023 090018 018 999 999 03
020530 2654N 07117W 6444 03857 0086 +074 +022 083018 018 999 999 03
020600 2655N 07120W 6443 03858 0085 +074 +027 085018 018 999 999 03
020630 2655N 07122W 6443 03858 0087 +073 +028 094019 019 999 999 03
020700 2655N 07125W 6443 03858 0088 +073 +027 093017 018 999 999 03
020730 2655N 07128W 6444 03857 0084 +076 +022 090015 015 999 999 03
020800 2655N 07130W 6372 03950 0077 +073 +017 095017 019 999 999 03
020830 2655N 07133W 6258 04097 0071 +067 +008 096020 021 999 999 03

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270218
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 38 20090827
020900 2656N 07135W 6152 04236 0077 +054 +008 088019 019 999 999 03
020930 2656N 07138W 6043 04383 0080 +043 +001 072014 015 999 999 03
021000 2656N 07140W 5928 04539 0076 +037 -028 066012 013 999 999 03
021030 2656N 07143W 5821 04686 0077 +029 -071 064011 012 999 999 03
021100 2657N 07145W 5719 04830 0072 +024 -110 055008 009 999 999 03
021130 2657N 07148W 5620 04969 0068 +018 -143 044010 012 999 999 03
021200 2657N 07150W 5523 05109 0067 +008 -118 038014 015 999 999 03
021230 2658N 07153W 5433 05241 0284 -001 -138 036016 017 999 999 03
021300 2658N 07155W 5351 05362 0291 -007 -171 033016 016 999 999 03
021330 2658N 07158W 5271 05482 0299 -015 -198 034015 015 999 999 03
021400 2658N 07200W 5187 05609 0307 -026 -192 040015 016 999 999 03
021430 2659N 07202W 5127 05702 0314 -033 -198 049015 016 999 999 03
021500 2659N 07205W 5075 05783 0319 -040 -188 058013 013 999 999 03
021530 2659N 07207W 5004 05893 0325 -050 -199 066012 013 999 999 03
021600 2659N 07210W 4921 06026 0333 -057 -195 067012 013 999 999 03
021630 2700N 07212W 4871 06107 0340 -063 -190 057014 015 014 001 03
021700 2700N 07215W 4809 06206 0345 -067 -213 037017 018 999 999 03
021730 2700N 07217W 4751 06300 0351 -059 -329 026016 016 999 999 03
021800 2700N 07220W 4702 06381 0356 -061 -363 035017 017 999 999 03
021830 2701N 07222W 4659 06453 0361 -065 -340 044016 016 999 999 03

Plane ascending...mission over.

[wxman57]

I know it's is still days away....But, what do people think we can expect on Nantucket in this point in time?....Bill was a joke.

Somewhere between 20-30 mph and 60-70 mph, depending on its structure, intensity, and track. Really, impossible to be confident in a wind forecast when it's struggling to survive. I think it'll be quite sheared as it passes, with most strong winds well east of the center.