ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Dave]

[storms NC]

Let me sum this up for some that are not so sure about the North turn.
Now you have a ULL over by La that is moveing east. Now as it get closer to danny it will turn Danny NW. then you have the jet stream. Now it is to slide down to the south and bend to the north. Right now it is to the north by the great lakes.
Now they are takeing that the jet stream will come down and the ULL to push Danny out to the NW to NNW to NNE.

So there you have why it will not hit the southeast coast.

[Dave]

Missing HDOBS #18 Did not come thru.

URNT15 KWBC 262318
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 19 20090826
230830 2506N 06920W 6436 03858 0089 +066 +015 182063 157 006 000 03
230900 2506N 06918W 6436 03859 0091 +065 +022 226023 024 005 000 03
230930 2506N 06915W 6436 03859 0090 +066 +016 226024 024 008 000 03
231000 2506N 06913W 6437 03859 0090 +067 +005 222023 024 007 000 03
231030 2506N 06910W 6436 03860 0092 +066 +008 221024 025 007 000 03
231100 2506N 06908W 6437 03859 0095 +064 +017 221025 025 005 000 03
231130 2506N 06905W 6436 03861 0098 +061 +026 220025 025 006 000 03
231200 2506N 06903W 6436 03861 0105 +056 +032 217025 025 006 000 03
231230 2506N 06900W 6437 03860 0106 +056 +026 215024 024 007 000 03
231300 2506N 06858W 6436 03861 0105 +058 +021 216024 024 009 000 03
231330 2506N 06855W 6439 03858 0104 +057 +027 215025 025 999 999 03
231400 2506N 06853W 6437 03861 0106 +058 +020 213024 024 999 999 03
231430 2506N 06850W 6438 03861 0105 +059 +019 212025 026 999 999 03
231500 2506N 06848W 6436 03863 0103 +060 +021 210025 025 999 999 03
231530 2506N 06845W 6438 03861 0102 +061 +019 212025 025 999 999 03
231600 2507N 06843W 6435 03866 0103 +058 +046 201025 029 999 999 03
231630 2507N 06840W 6417 03888 0105 +056 +046 209027 030 999 999 03
231700 2507N 06838W 6424 03879 0103 +060 +023 218027 027 999 999 03
231730 2507N 06835W 6428 03877 0104 +060 +026 214026 027 999 999 03
231800 2507N 06833W 6428 03877 0112 +056 +017 208026 026 999 999 03

[Dave]

[Aric Dunn]

Let me sum this up for some that are not so sure about the North turn.
Now you have a ULL over by La that is moveing east. Now as it get closer to danny it will turn Danny NW. then you have the jet stream. Now it is to slide down to the south and bend to the north. Right now it is to the north by the great lakes.
Now they are takeing that the jet stream will come down and the ULL to push Danny out to the NW to NNW to NNE.

So there you have why it will not hit the southeast coast.

actually thats not the case that upper low is still not moving .. and maybe cutting off .. if thats the case say good by to north motion..in the short term.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262328
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 20 20090826
231830 2508N 06830W 6431 03871 0118 +051 +030 201028 029 999 999 03
231900 2509N 06828W 6429 03873 0116 +052 +024 205027 028 999 999 03
231930 2511N 06827W 6429 03875 0118 +053 +000 202028 029 999 999 03
232000 2513N 06825W 6430 03871 0116 +054 -004 205029 029 999 999 03
232030 2514N 06823W 6429 03873 0116 +053 -003 203029 030 999 999 03
232100 2516N 06821W 6427 03875 0123 +048 +013 201031 032 999 999 03
232130 2518N 06819W 6424 03879 0114 +051 +041 196029 031 999 999 03
232200 2519N 06817W 6442 03858 0116 +050 +050 178032 034 999 999 03
232230 2522N 06817W 6465 03826 0114 +054 +031 192024 026 999 999 03
232300 2524N 06817W 6444 03853 0114 +054 +021 191022 024 999 999 03
232330 2526N 06819W 6447 03851 0113 +057 +011 195027 028 999 999 03
232400 2527N 06821W 6448 03850 0108 +059 +021 197029 030 999 999 03
232430 2529N 06822W 6447 03849 0107 +058 +023 194030 030 999 999 03
232500 2531N 06824W 6449 03848 0105 +059 +032 190028 029 999 999 03
232530 2533N 06825W 6450 03847 0108 +058 +032 184029 029 999 999 03
232600 2535N 06827W 6450 03847 0114 +055 +024 181028 028 999 999 03
232630 2536N 06829W 6449 03848 0109 +057 +031 179027 028 999 999 03
232700 2538N 06830W 6450 03846 0107 +057 +034 173026 026 999 999 03
232730 2540N 06832W 6448 03846 0107 +055 +043 168028 028 036 000 03
232800 2542N 06834W 6450 03843 0105 +055 +051 167031 033 036 002 00

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 262327
XXAA 76237 99251 70686 07958 99013 26222 14026 00110 25224 15529
92795 22433 17029 85527 18238 18533 70165 09656 19531 88999 77999
31313 09608 82317
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 OB 05
62626 REL 2511N06856W 231747 SPG 2515N06856W 232301 WL150 15528 0
85 DLM WND 18530 012643 MBL WND 16030=
XXBB 76238 99251 70686 07958 00013 26222 11000 25224 22972 25250
33898 20419 44853 18440 55778 13423 66756 12450 77744 11006 88713
10024 99692 09058 11680 08056 22669 07014 33643 05623
21212 00013 14026 11982 16033 22959 17028 33767 19035 44643 21526
31313 09608 82317
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 OB 05
62626 REL 2511N06856W 231747 SPG 2515N06856W 232301 WL150 15528 0
85 DLM WND 18530 012643 MBL WND 16030=

[Steve H.]

Correct Aric. It is still heading on a wnw course and the ULL was retrograding west the last time I looked.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262338
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 21 20090826
232830 2543N 06835W 6450 03843 0106 +054 +047 174028 029 039 001 03
232900 2545N 06837W 6450 03841 0100 +057 +049 176035 037 034 000 03
232930 2547N 06839W 6449 03842 0102 +055 +052 175038 039 036 001 03
233000 2549N 06841W 6447 03844 0099 +056 +056 176033 034 037 000 03
233030 2550N 06842W 6451 03840 0095 +058 +058 178035 036 999 999 03
233100 2552N 06844W 6438 03853 0091 +059 +057 180035 036 999 999 03
233130 2554N 06846W 6421 03875 0090 +058 +051 186036 038 999 999 03
233200 2556N 06847W 6440 03850 0101 +051 +051 183039 040 038 012 03
233230 2558N 06849W 6421 03874 0094 +054 +054 180036 040 042 017 03
233300 2559N 06851W 6405 03894 0089 +056 +056 185031 034 044 010 03
233330 2601N 06852W 6444 03846 0092 +059 +053 194033 034 039 001 03
233400 2603N 06854W 6446 03840 0090 +059 +051 195031 032 999 999 03
233430 2605N 06856W 6410 03886 0095 +053 +051 197031 033 999 999 03
233500 2607N 06857W 6422 03869 0084 +062 +045 203030 031 043 001 03
233530 2608N 06859W 6445 03839 0086 +061 +044 202031 032 044 005 03
233600 2610N 06901W 6434 03853 0087 +058 +049 203028 028 043 007 03
233630 2611N 06902W 6431 03856 0090 +055 +053 201029 030 049 009 03
233700 2613N 06904W 6446 03838 0083 +059 +057 195036 041 045 017 03
233730 2614N 06906W 6423 03862 0075 +060 +060 197043 048 044 012 03
233800 2616N 06908W 6436 03846 0078 +057 +057 196049 055 046 011 03

1008 mb extrap; 55 kts FL; 46 kts SW - But Flagged

[Aric Dunn]

Correct Aric. It is still heading on a wnw course and the ULL was retrograding west the last time I looked.

The biggest issue with that ull .. is that it does not appear at all to be opening up and if it does not open up and cuts off then the trough that is supposed to dig into the se will not be able to make it far enough .. and a ridge will likely build back in and something to watch is if that upper low starts to move westward again from is current stationary position. Because that will tell us that one the models are wrong and 2 the system maybe around quite a bit longer than previosly forecast. as of right now is see little motion with danny and nothing at the moment to move it .. so watch to see if that upper low opens up and starts to move NE

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262348
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 22 20090826
233830 2618N 06910W 6431 03849 0079 +053 +053 192060 066 047 023 03
233900 2619N 06912W 6395 03891 0079 +047 +047 183051 054 999 999 03
233930 2621N 06914W 6382 03907 0086 +042 +042 190043 044 067 062 03
234000 2623N 06916W 6430 03859 0100 +045 +045 196041 045 075 037 03
234030 2624N 06917W 6524 03736 0095 +056 +056 188032 037 054 018 03
234100 2626N 06919W 6627 03605 0092 +063 +063 185033 034 045 045 03
234130 2627N 06921W 6715 03498 0093 +066 +066 179037 039 999 999 03
234200 2629N 06923W 6804 03385 0092 +075 +075 193026 035 061 037 03
234230 2631N 06925W 6891 03282 0092 +083 +083 212020 021 059 025 00
234300 2632N 06927W 6948 03214 0092 +087 +087 201019 021 056 022 03
234330 2634N 06928W 6983 03170 0094 +087 +087 207022 023 051 012 03
234400 2635N 06930W 6956 03205 0090 +089 +089 201019 023 048 020 00
234430 2636N 06932W 6940 03223 0093 +087 +087 227017 019 051 017 03
234500 2638N 06934W 6968 03190 0084 +097 +091 226014 016 999 999 03
234530 2639N 06935W 6960 03198 0079 +099 +099 155010 022 053 029 03
234600 2641N 06937W 6945 03224 0094 +092 +092 157011 016 050 032 03
234630 2642N 06939W 6939 03231 0099 +088 +088 190003 007 999 999 03
234700 2643N 06941W 7004 03154 0101 +092 +092 127007 009 999 999 03
234730 2644N 06943W 6999 03161 0098 +093 +093 143010 011 999 999 03
234800 2646N 06945W 6969 03197 0103 +089 +089 130014 014 999 999 03

1008 mb extrap; 66 kts FL; 59 kts SW

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a mid level center there

[curtadams]

If you look at the convective burst going up you can see there is little shear over the center of Danny. It's gone up to very high cirrus without anything being blown of; just a slight SW shear. Danny looks like a mess because of dry air, not shear.

Also, if the center isn't under that outburst already it will be soon.

[CrazyC83]

though likely invalid....a ship reported 60 mph SE wind last hour well NE of the center...

SHIP S 2100 28.50 -73.20 225 332 120 52.1 - - - - - - - 82.4

Looking at flight data, that seems quite valid to me...

[storms NC]

Let me sum this up for some that are not so sure about the North turn.
Now you have a ULL over by La that is moveing east. Now as it get closer to danny it will turn Danny NW. then you have the jet stream. Now it is to slide down to the south and bend to the north. Right now it is to the north by the great lakes.
Now they are takeing that the jet stream will come down and the ULL to push Danny out to the NW to NNW to NNE.

So there you have why it will not hit the southeast coast.

actually thats not the case that upper low is still not moving .. and maybe cutting off .. if thats the case say good by to north motion..in the short term.

This is from out of Morehead City NWS

IMPACTS OF DANNY WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS PCPN CHANCES AND WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT BANDS OF TROPICAL SHOWERS
WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE COAST BY FRI AFTN BUT TEND TO WEAKEN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR INLAND. UPPER LOW OVR GULF COASTAL
REGION WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SE STATES ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TURN DANNY TO THE NORTH. THE MAINIMPACTS OF DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FELT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND HIGH WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR THE
OUTER BANKS AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS.

DANNY EXPECTED TO BE MOVING RAPIDLY NNE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN EARLY AS WINDS SHIFT
WEST ALLOWING A DRIER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262358
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 23 20090826
234830 2647N 06947W 6966 03201 0102 +090 +089 123018 019 999 999 03
234900 2648N 06948W 6961 03208 0101 +091 +089 120017 018 999 999 03
234930 2650N 06950W 6963 03206 0100 +091 +090 122019 021 999 999 03
235000 2650N 06953W 6961 03204 0096 +092 +092 125014 019 999 999 03
235030 2649N 06954W 6960 03208 0096 +095 +085 141010 010 999 999 03
235100 2647N 06956W 6961 03207 0095 +096 +082 147009 009 999 999 03
235130 2646N 06958W 6961 03206 0095 +096 +081 126007 008 999 999 03
235200 2645N 07000W 6962 03205 0095 +095 +078 120008 009 999 999 03
235230 2643N 07002W 6961 03205 0097 +095 +072 111009 009 999 999 03
235300 2642N 07004W 6961 03205 0097 +095 +069 101009 010 999 999 03
235330 2641N 07006W 6962 03204 0094 +097 +064 089009 010 999 999 03
235400 2639N 07008W 6962 03204 0089 +102 +057 095007 008 999 999 03
235430 2638N 07010W 6961 03205 0089 +102 +058 096006 007 999 999 03
235500 2637N 07012W 6962 03204 0086 +104 +055 102006 006 999 999 03
235530 2635N 07013W 6962 03205 0083 +108 +053 097004 004 999 999 03
235600 2634N 07015W 6962 03205 0083 +107 +057 085006 006 999 999 03
235630 2633N 07017W 6962 03205 0082 +109 +054 081006 007 027 000 03
235700 2631N 07019W 6963 03204 0083 +109 +051 078006 007 999 999 03
235730 2630N 07021W 6961 03206 0083 +108 +059 079005 006 999 999 03
235800 2629N 07023W 6946 03224 0082 +106 +058 063004 005 999 999 03

[brunota2003]

There is a 75 just below that 67 that is also flagged...however, there is a 59 that is NOT flagged.

[CrazyC83]

Has the center relocated to 26.7N 69.6W?

[Thunder44]

There is a 75 just below that 67 that is also flagged...however, there is a 59 that is NOT flagged.

But that came under a 21kt flight level report.