ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262103
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 05 20090826
205330 2641N 08006W 5725 04835 0127 +005 -092 122003 004 999 999 03
205400 2640N 08004W 5724 04837 0124 +004 -047 112003 004 999 999 03
205430 2639N 08002W 5725 04835 0124 +004 -048 123005 006 999 999 03
205500 2637N 07959W 5725 04835 0127 +004 -065 131006 006 999 999 03
205530 2636N 07957W 5727 04833 0123 +005 -053 112005 005 999 999 03
205600 2635N 07955W 5728 04832 0123 +005 -046 101004 004 999 999 03
205630 2634N 07953W 5726 04834 0120 +007 -058 106004 005 999 999 03
205700 2633N 07951W 5727 04833 0119 +008 -065 101004 004 999 999 03
205730 2632N 07949W 5728 04832 0116 +010 -068 122003 003 999 999 03
205800 2631N 07947W 5728 04832 0116 +010 -073 112002 002 999 999 03
205830 2629N 07945W 5729 04830 0116 +010 -069 067002 003 999 999 03
205900 2628N 07943W 5728 04831 0119 +008 -070 049003 004 999 999 03
205930 2627N 07940W 5729 04831 0118 +009 -079 054004 004 999 999 03
210000 2626N 07938W 5728 04832 0120 +011 -167 055003 003 999 999 03
210030 2625N 07936W 5728 04830 0129 +007 -172 037004 004 999 999 03
210100 2623N 07934W 5727 04831 0128 +007 -181 046005 006 999 999 03
210130 2622N 07932W 5730 04828 0128 +007 -176 050006 006 999 999 03
210200 2621N 07930W 5729 04830 0124 +009 -184 033005 005 999 999 03
210230 2620N 07928W 5729 04830 0125 +008 -158 045005 005 999 999 03
210300 2619N 07926W 5731 04828 0129 +007 -174 051005 005 999 999 03

[wjs3]

Good explosion of convection on the NE side of the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&map=latlon


And I add...that should pull the center to the NE some...

AFM, what I also noticed was that the cirrus to the south of that tower were moving east to west--are we starting to get a reversal to anti-cyclonic flow aloft?

[Air Force Met]

AFM, what I also noticed was that the cirrus to the south of that tower were moving east to west--are we starting to get a reversal to anti-cyclonic flow aloft?

Not yet. It's sitting north of the ULL near Haiti so the winds are out of the east. Ridging will eventually build in though.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262113
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 06 20090826
210330 2617N 07923W 5729 04829 0125 +008 -160 046005 005 999 999 03
210400 2616N 07921W 5729 04830 0129 +006 -135 059005 006 999 999 03
210430 2615N 07919W 5729 04829 0128 +005 -104 048005 005 999 999 03
210500 2614N 07917W 5730 04828 0125 +007 -127 055004 005 999 999 03
210530 2612N 07915W 5730 04827 0122 +008 -121 061005 005 999 999 03
210600 2611N 07913W 5730 04826 0124 +006 -106 060006 006 999 999 03
210630 2610N 07911W 5731 04826 0125 +007 -116 048005 005 999 999 03
210700 2609N 07909W 5730 04827 0121 +008 -102 048005 005 999 999 03
210730 2608N 07907W 5732 04826 0121 +009 -093 017004 004 999 999 03
210800 2606N 07904W 5732 04824 0122 +007 -087 034004 005 999 999 03
210830 2605N 07902W 5732 04825 0125 +008 -155 021004 005 999 999 03
210900 2604N 07900W 5731 04826 0120 +009 -117 018005 005 999 999 03
210930 2603N 07858W 5732 04824 0120 +012 -209 025004 004 999 999 03
211000 2602N 07856W 5733 04823 0118 +012 -209 031004 005 999 999 03
211030 2601N 07854W 5732 04823 0115 +012 -155 037004 004 999 999 03
211100 2559N 07852W 5732 04823 0114 +011 -107 051004 004 999 999 03
211130 2558N 07849W 5732 04822 0115 +012 -149 055004 004 999 999 03
211200 2557N 07847W 5732 04823 0116 +011 -119 063006 006 999 999 03
211230 2557N 07845W 5733 04821 0118 +011 -171 061006 007 999 999 03
211300 2556N 07842W 5733 04820 0115 +011 -131 064006 007 999 999 03

[wjs3]

AFM, what I also noticed was that the cirrus to the south of that tower were moving east to west--are we starting to get a reversal to anti-cyclonic flow aloft?

Not yet. It's sitting north of the ULL near Haiti so the winds are out of the east. Ridging will eventually build in though.

Thanks. Lost track of the synoptics, I guess.

It's certainly the most "sincere" looking blow up today.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262123
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 07 20090826
211330 2556N 07840W 5735 04820 0114 +012 -150 086003 004 999 999 03
211400 2556N 07837W 5733 04821 0115 +011 -115 110002 003 999 999 03
211430 2556N 07835W 5733 04821 0119 +009 -115 124003 004 999 999 03
211500 2555N 07832W 5734 04820 0114 +012 -135 108003 004 999 999 03
211530 2555N 07830W 5732 04822 0111 +012 -085 082005 006 999 999 03
211600 2555N 07827W 5733 04821 0113 +009 -049 071008 010 999 999 03
211630 2555N 07825W 5735 04818 0100 +015 -048 066005 006 999 999 03
211700 2555N 07822W 5735 04818 0108 +015 -125 068003 003 999 999 03
211730 2554N 07820W 5735 04818 0111 +013 -117 061004 004 999 999 03
211800 2554N 07817W 5735 04819 0110 +013 -117 064004 005 999 999 03
211830 2554N 07815W 5735 04818 0114 +011 -101 074005 006 999 999 03
211900 2553N 07812W 5735 04818 0115 +011 -109 075005 006 999 999 03
211930 2553N 07810W 5734 04820 0106 +015 -104 085006 007 999 999 03
212000 2553N 07807W 5736 04817 0107 +015 -121 076004 005 999 999 03
212030 2552N 07805W 5737 04816 0112 +013 -129 071004 004 999 999 03
212100 2552N 07802W 5736 04816 0112 +012 -106 064003 003 999 999 03
212130 2552N 07800W 5736 04815 0117 +009 -111 078003 003 999 999 03
212200 2551N 07757W 5737 04814 0115 +010 -102 078003 003 999 999 03
212230 2551N 07755W 5737 04814 0115 +010 -104 094003 003 999 999 03
212300 2551N 07752W 5737 04815 0110 +013 -110 109003 003 999 999 03

[btangy]

The main problem for Danny right now continues to be very dry air at mid-levels in the W semicircle that's preventing any convection from growing there. Precipitable water values are only in the 1.5" range according to the CIMSS data and I bet there's likely a pretty hefty inversion capping any convection. This appears to be caused by subsidence to the NW of the storm. It will take some time for the convection from Danny to moisten this area up. Otherwise, periodic convective bursts will only let Danny intensify slowly if at all.

[HURAKAN]

I got to go. Baseball practice. Someone, please, take over the graphics!

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262133
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 08 20090826
212330 2550N 07750W 5738 04813 0106 +015 -119 110003 003 999 999 03
212400 2550N 07747W 5739 04811 0111 +013 -121 071003 005 999 999 03
212430 2550N 07745W 5738 04812 0109 +012 -097 064005 005 999 999 03
212500 2549N 07743W 5737 04812 0106 +014 -116 064005 006 999 999 03
212530 2549N 07740W 5739 04811 0108 +013 -098 058006 008 999 999 03
212600 2549N 07738W 5739 04809 0105 +013 -080 059006 007 999 999 03
212630 2548N 07735W 5738 04810 0104 +015 -120 060006 006 999 999 03
212700 2548N 07733W 5739 04810 0101 +016 -103 059006 006 999 999 03
212730 2548N 07730W 5732 04818 0099 +016 -108 052005 006 999 999 03
212800 2547N 07728W 5725 04828 0099 +015 -109 058005 005 999 999 03
212830 2547N 07725W 5723 04831 0097 +016 -099 064005 005 004 000 03
212900 2547N 07723W 5724 04830 0095 +017 -092 068005 006 999 999 03
212930 2546N 07720W 5724 04830 0096 +017 -097 088007 007 999 999 03
213000 2546N 07718W 5724 04830 0094 +018 -090 098007 008 999 999 03
213030 2546N 07715W 5724 04829 0091 +019 -090 098008 008 999 999 03
213100 2546N 07713W 5724 04829 0093 +018 -095 103008 008 999 999 03
213130 2545N 07710W 5725 04829 0095 +017 -096 099007 007 999 999 03
213200 2545N 07708W 5725 04828 0093 +017 -081 093007 007 999 999 03
213230 2545N 07706W 5725 04828 0093 +018 -095 086006 006 999 999 03
213300 2544N 07703W 5725 04827 0092 +018 -093 082006 006 999 999 03

I can get the data but do not have google earth loaded to this new machine..can someone else pic graphics up please.

[TheEuropean]

ok, feel free to take over, have to work now.

[Dave]

ok, feel free to take over, have to work now.

Got it.

[kat61]

One other note. The entire east coast has seen above average rainfall this summer. Trees are full with saturated roots which make for easy takedown. Even a minimum hurricane could spell trouble for the northeast.

We have lost all of our Big oaks and dogwoods from bonnie fran floyd. I have 1 more that I would like to have come down and save me a few $$$$ to have it done. LOL No really we have lost all but 1 tree and we had a lot. 11 oak trees over 100 years old and 7 dogwoods. I have a Black walnut that I want to have cut down. It is very old and is very ugly. It wouldn't hurt any thing if a storm took it down.. My kids they are grown but they come here when there is a storm. Sit on the back deck and count the trees they hear crack or fall. Now my kids are 32 29 27 and 21. All but the baby is married with kids. I guess we never grow up.LOL

I love black walnut trees! Can we carry it over to Hampstead if it uproots? haha

[wxman57]

question for the pro-mets

if Danny remains a sheared mess and doesn't get its act together, will the low level circulation be more inclined to move WNWrd and not as influenced by the steering currents that are forecasted to move him NW-N

No. As I said earlier, the center will follow the convection. If it detaches and moves westward, then one of two things will happen. Either Danny will dissipate or the center will reform near the convection. Without the convection, any center cannot maintain itself.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262143
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 09 20090826
213330 2544N 07701W 5726 04825 0091 +019 -089 084006 006 999 999 03
213400 2544N 07658W 5725 04827 0090 +020 -112 083005 006 999 999 03
213430 2543N 07656W 5761 04777 0093 +020 -090 082004 004 999 999 03
213500 2542N 07654W 5765 04770 0095 +020 -092 083005 005 999 999 03
213530 2541N 07651W 5730 04819 0087 +021 -080 097005 006 999 999 03
213600 2540N 07649W 5766 04770 0094 +020 -091 117005 005 999 999 03
213630 2539N 07647W 5734 04814 0093 +019 -086 122005 005 999 999 03
213700 2539N 07644W 5740 04804 0089 +020 -083 130006 007 999 999 03
213730 2539N 07642W 5725 04826 0091 +018 -091 129006 007 999 999 03
213800 2539N 07639W 5732 04817 0092 +017 -083 119006 007 999 999 03
213830 2539N 07637W 5711 04845 0090 +017 -083 123005 005 999 999 03
213900 2539N 07634W 5729 04820 0088 +017 -077 112006 006 999 999 03
213930 2539N 07632W 5684 04885 0095 +012 -077 119005 006 999 999 03
214000 2538N 07629W 5731 04818 0090 +019 -096 118005 006 999 999 03
214030 2538N 07627W 5728 04820 0086 +019 -092 112005 006 999 999 03
214100 2538N 07624W 5727 04821 0091 +016 -099 109006 006 999 999 03
214130 2538N 07622W 5722 04828 0089 +017 -100 107006 007 999 999 03
214200 2538N 07620W 5703 04856 0086 +017 -099 118007 007 999 999 03
214230 2538N 07617W 5707 04848 0084 +017 -098 109006 006 005 000 00
214300 2538N 07615W 5635 04950 0093 +008 -098 099008 008 006 000 00

[Derek Ortt]

request... could we keep the graphics in another thread. I prefer just the text. Easier to process the data mentally for me

[wxman57]

Here's a recent analysis/satellite. Note the 35kt wind at the buoy north of the center. I think the center is reforming farther north and a little east. And there is new convection just east of the center.

[clfenwi]

If the track even slightly shifts west looks as if New England could take a direct hit. It's a good thing Danny is weak and still in slow formation mode. Water temps are VERY HIGH off the EC this season. Danny will have water temps 85+ to work with in the gulfstream. It's even close to 80 off the coast of NE for crying out loud. Danny should have a nice window Thursday and Friday to ramp up. Once it hits those waters i have a feeling the W side of Danny will start to ramp up. I do worry with the right situation in place the EC could get a real nasty intensifying cane later this season. Waters off the EC haven't been disturbed in a very long time and it's not even near the peak.

I'm confused
When Bill kicked up the seas off the NE coast, there were people swept away including a 7 year old girl and I heard that the water temps were in the 50's?
Did I hear wrong??
Or are the waters up north not in the 80 degree range?

(80° F ~ 26= C)

No, you did not hear wrong. The coastal waters north of Cape Cod are not warmed by the Gulf Stream, so they are much cooler than points south. The first English colonists to Maine got a nasty surprise when they experienced the implications of this during their first winter in Maine as they were expecting England-like winters (or warmer).

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 262153
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 10 20090826
214330 2538N 07612W 5678 04890 0091 +012 -094 085009 009 999 999 03
214400 2537N 07610W 5702 04857 0093 +014 -089 079008 009 999 999 03
214430 2537N 07607W 5722 04829 0093 +015 -089 068008 008 005 000 03
214500 2536N 07605W 5708 04849 0095 +014 -102 068008 008 999 999 03
214530 2535N 07602W 5710 04845 0092 +014 -100 068008 009 005 000 03
214600 2535N 07600W 5652 04927 0089 +014 -129 078008 009 999 999 03
214630 2534N 07558W 5701 04858 0087 +017 -109 070009 009 999 999 03
214700 2534N 07555W 5705 04853 0088 +018 -138 068007 008 999 999 03
214730 2533N 07553W 5697 04861 0079 +021 -124 078007 007 003 000 03
214800 2532N 07551W 5690 04871 0083 +019 -171 073007 007 999 999 03
214830 2531N 07548W 5693 04866 0080 +019 -145 071007 007 999 999 03
214900 2531N 07546W 5711 04842 0081 +021 -157 069007 008 999 999 03
214930 2531N 07543W 5706 04849 0085 +020 -147 057007 007 003 000 03
215000 2531N 07541W 5706 04848 0076 +024 -136 064007 007 004 000 03
215030 2531N 07538W 5718 04832 0097 +014 -152 045009 011 005 000 00
215100 2531N 07536W 5724 04823 0092 +014 -115 041010 011 005 000 00
215130 2531N 07533W 5722 04826 0095 +015 -140 041009 010 999 999 03
215200 2531N 07531W 5742 04797 0092 +017 -120 043010 011 999 999 03
215230 2530N 07528W 5781 04744 0094 +021 -134 046012 012 999 999 03
215300 2529N 07526W 5785 04739 0087 +025 -128 049011 012 999 999 03

[smw1981]

O/T I want to thank everyone who has stayed even if it is not a Fla or GOM storm. It shows who really is into hurricanes. So Pro's and Nonpros thank you very much for you hard work.


This board would be hopping if it was a Fla or gom storm. Back when there would be 100 pages long or longer. Shame I am here if it go any where. I am in it for the storms not is it going to hit my house?

Haha...I agree with you to a certain extent, but I think a lot of people (like me) are still here, reading everything posted, just not responding. And considering that i have been a member since 2004 and only have like 100 posts, that is not unusual for me lol. (I know my thing says 2007, and I can't figure out why!!! I think I changed my password then, but I have always had the same username...) Anyways, I do agree that if this were a FL or GOM storm, it would be past 100 pages by now...

[Brent]