ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[artist]

I guess my reasoning of explaining is those that are new to this can never learn if they are not told what those other conditions are. Sometimes I think all of us that have been around here for awhile forget what it can be like to be a newby at all this. Since I don't study the storms so much as see what others are saying I know it is nice to have these reminders of what can effect a storm out there.

I see your point

To my understanding, air can rise as much as it wants to but if the atmosphere isnt conductive, the rising air will not be able to become organized.

thanks RNGR

[artist]

hmmm up to 50 knt. I had been looking for that Hurakan! Thanks!

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262017
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 31 20090826
200800 2452N 07044W 9585 00437 0076 +226 +216 237019 020 016 000 00
200830 2451N 07043W 9584 00439 0077 +225 +220 235020 021 018 000 03
200900 2450N 07041W 9583 00441 0077 +225 +222 229022 022 018 000 00
200930 2448N 07040W 9587 00436 0077 +225 +218 228023 024 019 000 03
201000 2447N 07038W 9585 00439 0078 +225 +220 225025 026 021 000 03
201030 2445N 07037W 9583 00442 0078 +225 +219 224027 027 021 000 03
201100 2444N 07035W 9586 00441 0078 +228 +215 224027 029 021 000 03
201130 2443N 07034W 9582 00442 0078 +234 +199 224028 028 019 001 00
201200 2441N 07032W 9585 00441 0079 +232 +205 224027 028 020 000 00
201230 2440N 07031W 9584 00443 0080 +231 +211 223026 027 022 000 03
201300 2438N 07029W 9583 00444 0080 +230 +218 224025 026 019 000 00
201330 2437N 07028W 9585 00442 0081 +230 +218 226026 027 019 000 00
201400 2436N 07026W 9584 00444 0081 +230 +216 225026 027 019 000 00
201430 2434N 07025W 9584 00445 0082 +230 +217 223024 026 020 000 03
201500 2433N 07023W 9582 00448 0082 +230 +218 224025 025 021 000 03
201530 2431N 07022W 9586 00445 0083 +230 +216 226024 025 021 000 03
201600 2430N 07021W 9584 00446 0084 +230 +213 227024 024 019 000 03
201630 2428N 07019W 9583 00448 0085 +230 +216 226023 023 019 000 03
201700 2427N 07018W 9585 00445 0085 +230 +217 222024 025 016 000 03
201730 2426N 07016W 9584 00447 0086 +230 +214 224025 025 017 001 03
$$
;

[artist]

At 20:08:00Z (first observation), the observation was 414 miles (667 km) to the E (92°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 20:17:30Z (last observation), the observation was 446 miles (718 km) to the E (96°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[storms NC]

O/T I want to thank everyone who has stayed even if it is not a Fla or GOM storm. It shows who really is into hurricanes. So Pro's and Nonpros thank you very much for you hard work.


This board would be hopping if it was a Fla or gom storm. Back when there would be 100 pages long or longer. Shame I am here if it go any where. I am in it for the storms not is it going to hit my house?

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262027
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 32 20090826
201800 2424N 07014W 9585 00447 0086 +230 +212 222024 024 021 000 03
201830 2423N 07013W 9583 00450 0086 +230 +209 222024 025 021 000 03
201900 2422N 07011W 9584 00449 0087 +230 +216 223024 024 999 999 03
201930 2420N 07010W 9585 00449 0088 +230 +217 221024 024 021 000 03
202000 2419N 07008W 9584 00450 0088 +230 +215 223024 024 019 000 03
202030 2418N 07007W 9585 00449 0089 +230 +214 221024 024 020 000 03
202100 2416N 07006W 9585 00450 0089 +230 +213 221024 024 019 000 03
202130 2415N 07004W 9584 00451 0090 +229 +219 218024 025 019 000 03
202200 2413N 07003W 9584 00452 0090 +229 +218 217024 024 020 000 03
202230 2412N 07001W 9585 00451 0091 +229 +217 219023 024 018 000 03
202300 2411N 07000W 9584 00453 0091 +230 +214 219023 023 017 000 03
202330 2409N 06958W 9581 00456 0091 +229 +215 219022 022 020 000 03
202400 2408N 06957W 9582 00454 0091 +227 +217 221021 022 019 000 03
202430 2406N 06955W 9584 00453 0092 +226 +218 222022 022 017 000 03
202500 2405N 06953W 9583 00452 0092 +225 +217 222022 022 018 000 00
202530 2404N 06952W 9583 00455 0093 +225 +217 220022 022 019 000 03
202600 2402N 06950W 9584 00453 0093 +228 +212 220022 022 017 000 03
202630 2401N 06949W 9583 00456 0093 +226 +215 219022 022 018 000 03
202700 2359N 06947W 9577 00460 0093 +226 +210 219023 023 018 000 03
202730 2358N 06946W 9582 00456 0093 +229 +206 221023 023 016 000 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 20:18:00Z (first observation), the observation was 449 miles (722 km) to the E (96°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 20:27:30Z (last observation), the observation was 453 miles (728 km) to the NNW (328°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

748
WTNT25 KNHC 262034
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 71.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 71.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.1N 73.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 31.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 47.5N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 53.1N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 71.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


859
WTNT45 KNHC 262035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DANNY IS VERY DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN A BAND 100-150 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 49 KT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 40-45 KT FROM THE
SFMR. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE STORM SEEMS TO BE DECELERATING...AND THE CENTER MAY BE
OCCASIONALLY RE-FORMING DUE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. DANNY IS NORTH OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHWEST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.
AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY AFFECT. THE ECMWF...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS AND GFDL
SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF HATTERAS AND THEN PASSING NEAR OR
OVER CAPE COD. THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...AS WELL AS THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MODELS...SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD AND
NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA. OVERALL..THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK
COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY.
THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND IT MAY TAKE 24 HR OR MORE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF
THE STORM FAVORS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. BASED ON THIS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST
36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED SHEAR AND INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...WHICH COULD START BEFORE DANNY REACHES THE LATITUDE OF
NEW ENGLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT
IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
HOWEVER...IT REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND
HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.2N 71.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.1N 73.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.7N 74.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 31.1N 74.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 47.5N 63.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 31/1800Z 53.1N 48.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Tireman4]

I am here. Reading, but not responding. I guess I am in it for the storms too. LOL

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...POORLY ORGANIZED DANNY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES...625 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 735 MILES...1185 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.74 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.2N 71.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[artist]

interesting from the latest advisory -

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE STORM SEEMS TO BE DECELERATING...AND THE CENTER MAY BE
OCCASIONALLY RE-FORMING DUE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

[Shaun2453]

I guess my reasoning of explaining is those that are new to this can never learn if they are not told what those other conditions are. Sometimes I think all of us that have been around here for awhile forget what it can be like to be a newby at all this. Since I don't study the storms so much as see what others are saying I know it is nice to have these reminders of what can effect a storm out there.

I see your point

To my understanding, air can rise as much as it wants to but if the atmosphere isnt conductive, the rising air will not be able to become organized.[/quote]
thanks RNGR[/quote]


Aye,

Thanks RNGR. As a newbie it helps to have the odd explanation that isnt written textbook style lol!

[KWT]

Makes a lot of sense given the weak nature of the LLC, its probably opening then closing up quite often I suspect given the weak west recon found.

[cycloneye]

[artist]

Derek, et al can you explain what it means be decelerating? Are they talking about his forward speed?

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262037
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 33 20090826
202800 2356N 06944W 9581 00457 0094 +229 +206 221022 023 018 000 00
202830 2355N 06942W 9582 00457 0094 +230 +205 220023 024 019 000 03
202900 2353N 06941W 9581 00456 0094 +227 +209 221023 024 013 001 03
202930 2352N 06939W 9292 00737 0106 +213 +186 218026 026 015 001 03
203000 2350N 06938W 8953 01091 0136 +193 +167 217029 030 999 999 03
203030 2349N 06936W 8614 01408 0128 +173 +144 216029 030 999 999 03
203100 2347N 06935W 8296 01727 0126 +160 +114 217028 028 999 999 03
203130 2345N 06934W 8009 02031 0122 +153 +088 218026 027 999 999 03
203200 2343N 06933W 7729 02323 0114 +139 +062 214027 027 999 999 03
203230 2341N 06932W 7410 02684 0110 +121 +037 212025 027 999 999 03
203300 2340N 06931W 7078 03071 0111 +101 +022 216024 024 999 999 03
203330 2338N 06930W 6809 03396 0118 +079 +021 215024 025 999 999 03
203400 2336N 06929W 6563 03702 0116 +066 -007 222019 020 999 999 03
203430 2334N 06928W 6368 03952 0118 +051 -025 229019 019 999 999 03
203500 2333N 06927W 6191 04177 0112 +040 -039 226018 019 999 999 03
203530 2331N 06925W 6013 04415 0095 +026 -035 222017 018 999 999 03
203600 2330N 06923W 5845 04618 0074 +014 -058 229016 016 999 999 03
203630 2329N 06921W 5679 04851 0075 +002 -073 234016 016 999 999 03
203700 2327N 06919W 5529 05082 0086 -011 -084 235015 015 999 999 03
203730 2326N 06918W 5380 05299 0271 -027 -091 237015 015 999 999 03
$$
;

[artist]

At 20:28:00Z (first observation), the observation was 449 miles (723 km) to the NNW (328°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 20:37:30Z (last observation), the observation was 406 miles (653 km) to the NNW (329°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[Blown Away]

IMO, LLC looks a little elongated and just to the right of the forecast points.

[artist]

BAck to the real world for me for awhile. Can someone take over the obs please? Up to date as of this moment.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
just hit refresh to get the latest occasionally - maybe every 5 minutes or so.