Sanibel wrote:Danny's western outer edge is pushing the daytime convection across Florida and towards us.
And yes the center could be elongated and the center we see could be its SW corner.
Yup, even with Danny passing well to our east, the low pressure and trough squeezing in from the Panhandle will cause some nice precip and nasty weather for a day or two.
000
FXUS62 KJAX 261843
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE CUT OFF S OF THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. TROF EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO THE
E BAHAMAS JUST TO THE W OF TS DANNY. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E CAROLINAS TO W CUBA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST TO ANOTHER WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP OVER THE NE GOMEX AND ACROSS MOST OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. MOST PRECIP IS NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN I-75
AND HIGHWAY 301 WITH A FEW STRONG TSTMS EMBEDDED. MOVEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY IS A SLOW W DRIFT WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS.
.SHORT TERM...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE PARKED OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE OPENING UP INTO A
BROAD SE TROF THEREAFTER. AS A RESULT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...FAVORING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WHEN MORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECLINE AFTER THU AS DRIER AIR ON W SIDE OF
DANNY IS SHUNTED S OVER THE AREA AND MORE OPEN UPPER TROF ALLOW
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO SHIFT NE.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME ON THU...THEN GRADUALLY SCALE BACK QPF VALUES. WILL SEE
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
RECENT RAIN AREAS. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...VSBYS MAY DROP
BELOW A MILE IN SOME AREAS...BUT SUSPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY
MITIGATE THIS SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED.
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