ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[wxman57]

I really can't identify much left of this morning's tighter (but weak) LLC. I think that LLC is dissipating. Should reform closer to the convection.

[wxman57]

true... I'd love for this to die. Every day there is a storm means 4:30 a.m. wake-up for me

You need to quit fooling around, get your doctorate, and get a real job!

We could still use some help.

[deltadog03]

Good call, it is more NW than I thought. And ya wxman, becoming less pronounced. Wouldn't be suprised if we see that either.

[storms NC]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

go 90% quality, 10 frames, animate, and click near the llc. Clearly NW, IMO

Everyone see's it going this way and that way. Most look at the convection and not the center.

[HURAKAN]

594
NOUS42 KNHC 261745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT WED 26 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DANNY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0505A DANNY
C. 27/1430Z
D. 27.4N 74.1W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0605A DANNY
C. 27/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 29.1N 74.8W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 28/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL CONTINUE FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS ON DANNY THROUGH 28/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[artist]

At 18:18:00Z (first observation), the observation was 468 miles (753 km) to the E (83°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 18:27:30Z (last observation), the observation was 498 miles (802 km) to the E (81°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[KWT]

It is quite possible the center will open up given the westerly winds on the southern side of the system does seem to be struggling just a little bit.

For now its a weak LLC though as recon have found the west winds needed.

[HurricaneRobert]

Woah. Bob II.

[Air Force Met]

I really can't identify much left of this morning's tighter (but weak) LLC. I think that LLC is dissipating. Should reform closer to the convection.

I agree...although I still see some of the original LLC...this will reform to the NE under the convection.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261837
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 21 20090826
182800 2616N 06926W 9598 00442 0098 +214 +209 119035 036 999 999 03
182830 2618N 06926W 9603 00436 0095 +215 +209 114035 035 999 999 03
182900 2619N 06927W 9581 00457 0095 +214 +208 112037 039 030 000 03
182930 2621N 06927W 9594 00445 0097 +214 +207 106040 042 999 999 03
183000 2623N 06927W 9596 00443 0097 +213 +207 104041 042 999 999 03
183030 2624N 06927W 9587 00453 0098 +210 +210 102042 043 999 999 03
183100 2626N 06927W 9593 00448 0099 +210 +207 104044 045 999 999 03
183130 2627N 06926W 9584 00457 0100 +213 +201 109042 043 999 999 03
183200 2628N 06924W 9591 00452 0101 +210 +206 109041 042 999 999 03
183230 2629N 06923W 9590 00453 0101 +207 +207 110041 043 999 999 03
183300 2630N 06922W 9590 00453 0102 +206 +206 108042 042 999 999 03
183330 2630N 06920W 9592 00454 0103 +208 +206 106044 045 037 003 03
183400 2631N 06919W 9589 00455 0104 +205 +205 106042 044 038 000 03
183430 2632N 06918W 9591 00454 0104 +204 +204 105042 043 038 001 00
183500 2632N 06916W 9593 00452 0105 +201 +201 106042 043 039 000 00
183530 2633N 06915W 9589 00456 0106 +199 +199 110042 044 042 000 00
183600 2634N 06914W 9589 00457 0108 +196 +196 110043 044 040 003 00
183630 2634N 06912W 9593 00454 0107 +201 +201 108045 045 040 001 00
183700 2635N 06911W 9590 00458 0108 +199 +199 111047 049 041 001 00
183730 2636N 06910W 9585 00461 0109 +191 +191 110044 046 039 003 01
$$
;

[artist]

At 18:28:00Z (first observation), the observation was 500 miles (804 km) to the E (80°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 18:37:30Z (last observation), the observation was 474 miles (763 km) to the SW (214°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).

[HURAKAN]

[sfwx]

Can we NOW please put the "It's coming to Florida!" business to bed?!?!?!?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT AND SURF DANGER BECOMING HIGH AGAIN THU INTO SAT...





THU...THE AREA WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN TROUGH ALOFT IN THE GULF
AND TROPICAL STORM DANNY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THOUGH THE GFS INDICATES SOME PERIPHERAL DRYING
FROM DANNY ADVECTING INTO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WOULD EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF AGAIN. WITH CONTINUED EAST
FLOW...INTERIOR AREAS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AGAIN. MOS
POPS ARE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST AND AROUND 50 PERCENT INLAND...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

THE WAVE WATCH INDICATES SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
DANNY REACHING THE WATERS. THEREFORE THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
INCREASE TO HIGH.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH A WEAK UPR LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO GA/AL...AND T.S. DANNY RECURVING OFF TO OUR
EAST. NHC TRACK HAS DANNY RECURVING AROUND 75W BY THURSDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS FL OTHER THAN ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
INCREASING SWELL THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECASTED
STRENGTHENING AND RELATIVE CLOSENESS OF DANNY...HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT 6-7 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 13S.

POPS FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/AL ON FRI COUPLED WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE THE SFC AND ARGUE FOR ABOVE NORMAL POPS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12 BRING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE
ROBUST POP SITUATION AS THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
MID LEVEL TEMPS TO HELP OVERCOME POSSIBLE DRYING.



&&


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES

[wxman57]

I've seen so many such systems in the past. We tend to get so fixated on the movement of the center that we don't see the big picture. Just step back and monitor where the convection is moving and focus on that. Ignore the weak, detached swirls.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY (AL052009) 20090826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 1800 090827 0600 090827 1800 090828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 70.8W 26.0N 72.7W 27.0N 74.3W 27.9N 75.2W
BAMD 25.0N 70.8W 25.6N 72.4W 26.0N 73.9W 26.9N 75.1W
BAMM 25.0N 70.8W 25.7N 72.5W 26.3N 74.0W 27.2N 75.0W
LBAR 25.0N 70.8W 25.9N 72.3W 27.1N 74.0W 28.2N 75.0W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090828 1800 090829 1800 090830 1800 090831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 75.5W 31.8N 72.6W 34.9N 69.4W 40.4N 65.8W
BAMD 28.5N 75.8W 33.6N 72.7W 40.1N 65.6W 45.8N 45.4W
BAMM 28.6N 75.4W 32.5N 72.2W 36.7N 68.3W 43.8N 59.8W
LBAR 30.0N 75.5W 34.5N 73.6W 43.4N 64.9W 45.7N 42.3W
SHIP 57KTS 65KTS 64KTS 47KTS
DSHP 57KTS 65KTS 52KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261847
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 22 20090826
183800 2637N 06908W 9596 00454 0109 +201 +201 114048 049 042 002 00
183830 2637N 06907W 9591 00457 0109 +198 +198 116049 049 040 004 00
183900 2638N 06906W 9589 00459 0109 +204 +203 114049 049 041 004 00
183930 2639N 06904W 9591 00458 0111 +201 +201 112049 049 040 003 00
184000 2639N 06903W 9588 00462 0113 +190 +190 110047 049 041 005 01
184030 2640N 06902W 9590 00461 0113 +202 +202 109045 047 041 005 00
184100 2641N 06900W 9589 00463 0114 +204 +200 109045 047 041 000 00
184130 2641N 06859W 9587 00465 0114 +204 +199 110044 047 042 003 00
184200 2642N 06858W 9586 00469 0115 +202 +201 111044 047 039 003 00
184230 2643N 06856W 9587 00466 0116 +199 +199 111043 045 039 002 00
184300 2644N 06855W 9593 00461 0116 +201 +201 109044 046 040 002 00
184330 2644N 06854W 9587 00466 0117 +200 +200 111043 044 039 006 03
184400 2645N 06853W 9587 00469 0117 +205 +204 107045 047 999 999 03
184430 2647N 06854W 9593 00463 0117 +210 +188 104048 049 999 999 03
184500 2647N 06856W 9593 00463 0117 +207 +197 103044 046 041 003 00
184530 2647N 06858W 9590 00464 0116 +206 +200 103043 044 041 003 00
184600 2646N 06901W 9593 00461 0115 +208 +195 103043 045 042 003 00
184630 2646N 06903W 9588 00465 0114 +209 +189 103044 045 043 000 03
184700 2646N 06905W 9573 00479 0115 +204 +198 102044 045 042 000 00
184730 2646N 06908W 9586 00469 0116 +207 +198 103044 045 041 001 00
$$

[fci]

the LLC is clearly moving NW on 1km visible. The coordinates show as such.

It is not coming to Florida. No chance at all. It is not coming to Georgia, no chance at all.

This will keep moving WNW to NW until it turns

Boy are you going to disappoint "some" Florida and Georgia people.......

[artist]

At 18:38:00Z (first observation), the observation was 472 miles (759 km) to the SW (214°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
At 18:47:30Z (last observation), the observation was 463 miles (745 km) to the SW (214°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).

[KWT]

Now has this only just reaching hurricane status so still going down in terms of expected strength.