Strong tropical wave ssw of Cape Verde islands

[Macrocane]

If it recurves but becomes an intense hurricane I will find it interesting, but just wait and see.

[KWT]

The models seem to be backing away from strengthening the Bermuda high in recent runs, though they do seem to be suggesting that the eastern Atlantic troughs won't be digging nearly as far south either, so anything that forms from 60W westward would have a better chance of hitting the US post Danny.

[otowntiger]

The focus has been on what is now Danny lately, but I think this is our next player. It is off the coast and not poofing, has nice convection and a nice structure. I think this will be invested by the end of the week.

/But I see it re-curving and quickly becoming very uninteresting..

Not sure what makes you think this is a recurve? Remember most of the hurricanes that effect the EC and specifically Florida come in September/October. Come September the BH starts to build and we get more long trackers. IMO, the timing of this wave will bring it near the Caribbean area in a week or so and I bet we see a stronger Bermuda High and a long tracker. Will it become a named storm, not sure, but it is a good looking wave rate now.

Actually I saw a model run that had it lifting almost nw several hundred miles east of the islands. Also KWT is also saying that the models are backing off of a strengthening bermuda high in the next week or two. I realize anything can happen, but I'm not going to get too excited about a wave in this general area until the pattern has changed and right now it looks to be pretty much set in.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting, Maybe there is a small low around 12N and 19W.

[Bocadude85]

The models seem to be backing away from strengthening the Bermuda high in recent runs, though they do seem to be suggesting that the eastern Atlantic troughs won't be digging nearly as far south either, so anything that forms from 60W westward would have a better chance of hitting the US post Danny.

There will always be periods of strong High Pressure in September... its just a timing issue. If a storm is out there when the High builds then look out.. 2004 was nothing but east coast troughs for the first 3 months then September came and the High built in and we all know what happened after that.

[HURAKAN]

Things looks pretty favorable for future development but as we saw with Bill, large disturbances usually take a few days to get going.

[cycloneye]

627
ABNT20 KNHC 261739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[carolina_73]

Looks like this baby is going to start cranking up when it gets further west. I see hurricane written all over this wave. It sure looks alot better than yesterday and it didn't take long for the convection to refire.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like an invest may pop up any time soon.

[HURAKAN]

Looking very good

[carolina_73]

Looking very good

Ohhh yeah! going to be an invest real soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, this is blowing up quicker than I expected...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

impressive

[KWT]

Yep this one does look like its going to develop...developing this far east in a year with a weak upper high is almost a certain recurver. Odds would be slim for this to make it all the away across.

[carolina_73]

If it times right with HP building in....

[KWT]

The thing that makes recurving even more likely is Danny's remains should more slightly ESE across the Atlantic as it rotates around the main upper low and thats going to cause enough of a weakness to lift out this system somewhat. Whilst it obviously won't do the job totally once you got a system at 20N/50W then its unlikely that the system will make it unless a very strong high builds in.

[cycloneye]

I am surprised that it has not been introduced yet by TPC at TWD,although NHC mentions is a wave at TWO.

[carolina_73]

The thing that makes recurving even more likely is Danny's remains should more slightly ESE across the Atlantic as it rotates around the main upper low and thats going to cause enough of a weakness to lift out this system somewhat. Whilst it obviously won't do the job totally once you got a system at 20N/50W then its unlikely that the system will make it unless a very strong high builds in.

Yeah... going to be some interesting days ahead with this wave and Danny. Conditions look pretty decent ahead of it and this could become a powerful storm. I just hope a strong HP doesn't build in if it makes it near the islands.

[KWT]

Yeah as long as the ULL in the central Atlantic lifts out quickly enough then this could well become a hurricane down the line.

Still I do think this will more then likely recurve IMO.

[otowntiger]

Yep this one does look like its going to develop...developing this far east in a year with a weak upper high is almost a certain recurver. Odds would be slim for this to make it all the away across.

I agree. I don't believe this one will make it very far west due to the weak Bermuda High and the pattern we've observed so far this year.