ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[artist]

Houston, we have a problem!!!

wouldn't that be Miami, we have a problem?!?

[storms NC]

I think there will be more of a shift to the west as time goes by. Still think this will do a Floyd track and come into SC and NC line and go up to east of raleigh and comeing out North of Va line back in the waters and ride the NE coast up from there out to sea. JMO

[KWT]

Yeah the NAM is interesting as its holding back the ULL somewhat more now this run, it did a surprisingly good job with the upper trough and Bill and was one of the first to see the upper trough wasn't quite as progressive.

I'd guess this does end up a little bit further west of the NHC track, closer to the western side of the cone IMO.

[HURAKAN]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 25.7N 70.5W
E. 26/1600Z TO 26/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


The plane should have left already based on the time indicated but there's no indication so far that it did.

[otowntiger]

what was all this discussion about a Florida threat?? seems to me it is already on a WNW track and following quite nicely along the model tracks as of this morning.

I agree. No apparent Florida threat whatsoever.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC is west of the consensus models and well west of the high res models.

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like its heading closer to NW then WNW over the last few hours which is an interesting thing to be happening if indeed that is the case.

One thing that is for sure though is the system has slowed down quite a lot which also favours the idea that is misses the Carolinas but we shall see, very early days yet.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

And thats good news. Cause after 2004,2005,2006,2008 we needed a break. We dont get many

[Derek Ortt]

next NOAA plane is tonight

[storms NC]

Danny is moveing more to the west than he is to the north. More like 275-280 right now. I can't see the NW movement. It may be but I don't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

NHC is west of the consensus models and well west of the high res models.

However those models are generally based off the GFS which is rather rapid in kicking out that ULL and lowering the pressure down the east coast, given we know GFS has a progressive issue more often then not thats something to keep in mind, esp given it may not be all that far away from the Carolinas.

[ConvergenceZone]

looking at the cluster of models, I think the track will shift east as well....We'll have to wait and see if the storm survives the shear though.

[Jevo]

what was all this discussion about a Florida threat?? seems to me it is already on a WNW track and following quite nicely along the model tracks as of this morning.

I agree. No apparent Florida threat whatsoever.

Jeeeez Im going to have to add more crows to the pot... looks like there may be some extra helpings going around after all is said and done...... Im not saying you're going to need some... Just seem like a lot of people are making ABSOLUTE statments... This is an unorganized TC. The models don't even have a firm grasp yet....

I do miss the old days when posters (other than our resident mets and experts) would say.. "There is no threat to X and here is why I think that... (insert data here)"

[Derek Ortt]

The high res models are not all based off of the GFS

The MM5 is ran off of the GFS/GFDL/NOGAPS/CMC read my forecast discussion. All 4 keep the storm offshore (though they do bring TS winds to NC/MA)

[Aric Dunn]

NHC is west of the consensus models and well west of the high res models.

However those models are generally based off the GFS which is rather rapid in kicking out that ULL and lowering the pressure down the east coast, given we know GFS has a progressive issue more often then not thats something to keep in mind, esp given it may not be all that far away from the Carolinas.

im not surprised.. danny has to both slow down and turn within about 15 hours

before it hit 75 west. 75 west is the farthest west any of the models go... i just dont see such a hard right turn happening..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I dont see how the trough will interact with Danny till 48 hours. I think a miles east of the CMC is your best bet. Where does Euro put danny?

Also, its all over already. Front page of Drudge in red. Threat to NYC. Its begun.

[KWT]

Yeah no doubt the media put the focus on NYC, really though the odds of a strike there are fairly remote give the positive tilt on the upper trough as it comes through, I think it'll have more of a NNE type motion to it when its going up alongside the coast then the NHC expect.

[cycloneye]

12z NAM.

I know is the NAM,but it shows a outerbanks landflall.

[JPmia]

what was all this discussion about a Florida threat?? seems to me it is already on a WNW track and following quite nicely along the model tracks as of this morning.

I agree. No apparent Florida threat whatsoever.

Jeeeez Im going to have to add more crows to the pot... looks like there may be some extra helpings going around after all is said and done...... Im not saying you're going to need some... Just seem like a lot of people are making ABSOLUTE statments... This is an unorganized TC. The models don't even have a firm grasp yet....

I do miss the old days when posters (other than our resident mets and experts) would say.. "There is no threat to X and here is why I think that... (insert data here)"

I'm not making an absolute statement. Just reading a lot of discussion about Florida when there is NO evidence either way of a threat...yet (added for emphasis)

[StormClouds63]

[quote=Also, its all over already. Front page of Drudge in red. Threat to NYC. Its begun.[/quote]

A bit too much for a system, which is large, but also relatively disorganized. Whenever I watch any of the national media's coverage of tropical weather, I always think of Don Henley's 1982 song, Dirty Laundry.