ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[HURAKAN]

[Air Force Met]

Do a loop and you will clearly see what appears to be a LLC

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Agree...there is a LLC near 24.5 / 70.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 261157
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 23 20090826
114730 2315N 06836W 6434 03852 0085 +063 +006 215019 019 004 000 03
114800 2316N 06838W 6434 03853 0087 +062 +008 211017 018 005 000 00
114830 2317N 06840W 6435 03853 0088 +061 +016 203016 017 005 000 00
114900 2319N 06842W 6434 03853 0088 +061 +017 201016 017 007 000 03
114930 2320N 06844W 6434 03853 0087 +062 +011 202017 017 006 000 03
115000 2321N 06846W 6435 03853 0086 +063 +011 203017 017 005 000 00
115030 2322N 06847W 6434 03853 0085 +063 +010 204016 017 006 000 03
115100 2324N 06849W 6435 03852 0082 +064 +012 206017 018 006 000 03
115130 2325N 06851W 6435 03852 0082 +064 +014 207016 016 005 000 03
115200 2326N 06853W 6433 03853 0081 +065 +014 203016 016 006 000 03
115230 2328N 06855W 6433 03854 0080 +065 +011 203015 016 004 000 03
115300 2329N 06857W 6437 03848 0077 +068 +010 197017 018 999 999 03
115330 2330N 06859W 6434 03852 0083 +063 +017 200015 015 006 000 03
115400 2332N 06901W 6434 03852 0083 +063 +022 201014 015 006 000 00
115430 2333N 06903W 6435 03851 0081 +064 +012 197013 014 006 000 00
115500 2334N 06905W 6435 03851 0083 +062 +029 192013 013 015 000 03
115530 2335N 06907W 6436 03849 0087 +059 +030 187013 013 003 000 03
115600 2337N 06909W 6434 03851 0089 +056 +037 184014 015 003 000 03
115630 2338N 06911W 6435 03849 0084 +061 +022 189014 015 999 999 03
115700 2339N 06913W 6435 03850 0087 +059 +024 193014 014 009 000 00

[Blown Away]

92L has been moving just N of due W since last night. 92L may get a little closer to Florida, but I don't think there is 1 model that has 92L making a landfall in Florida or going into the GOM. So I think there is a reasonable confidence this will be nothing more than some breezy weather and some big surf for Florida. IMO, the more W 92L goes there is a better chance of having an impact on the Carolinas.

[Derek Ortt]

poorly defined center on QS. Winds about 55KT

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas87.png

[KWT]

I do agree Blown away though you can't be sure it won't come close enough to need watching.

Also quite obvious this has a LLC now with all the data thus far pretty conclusive, looks like this should be upgraded sooner rather then later and dependant on recon will probably be Danny.

[Derek Ortt]

may be danny at 11

[brunota2003]

Considering how close it is, a special advisory would most likely be issued. TS Watches/Warnings would need to be raised immediately. What about a Hurricane Watch for the locales with the TS Warnings as well?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, got data and visibles. This is quicker that what I was thinking based on last nights data, expected to see a defined center by this afternoon. The QS and visibles are in agreement. west winds found by recon. lopsided and sheared, this is a TS (Danny)

Don't really like where it is and the synoptic set up. FL to OBX likely affected if it avoids poofagensis. The islands are highly likely to see some thing from this. I expect a good solution on the models by this evening. That ULL is the kicker though.

[jconsor]

NHC will probably wait until 11 am to initiate advisories, but it is clear there is at least a broad LLC. Buoy 41046, just SW of the center, is reporting 10 kt NW winds at 8am:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[dixiebreeze]

40 knots -- unless this is old:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

It starting to remind me of past El Nino years. Where the models showed a full blown Hurricane and poof nothing. I have a feeling soon to be Danny will do nothing like the models.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 261207
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 24 20090826
115730 2341N 06915W 6435 03850 0083 +062 +022 191013 014 999 999 03
115800 2342N 06917W 6435 03850 0084 +062 +019 192012 013 999 999 03
115830 2343N 06919W 6435 03851 0084 +062 +015 206010 011 999 999 03
115900 2345N 06921W 6435 03851 0084 +062 +025 201009 009 999 999 03
115930 2346N 06923W 6436 03848 0083 +063 +020 203010 010 999 999 03
120000 2347N 06925W 6432 03854 0084 +061 +023 210010 010 004 000 03
120030 2348N 06927W 6434 03852 0085 +061 +029 211010 010 999 999 03
120100 2350N 06928W 6435 03851 0085 +060 +032 208011 011 999 999 03
120130 2351N 06930W 6436 03850 0083 +062 +028 215011 012 999 999 03
120200 2352N 06932W 6436 03851 0085 +061 +029 216012 012 999 999 03
120230 2354N 06934W 6435 03851 0081 +064 +014 209011 011 003 000 03
120300 2355N 06936W 6435 03850 0077 +068 -001 203010 011 999 999 03
120330 2356N 06938W 6435 03850 0073 +071 -005 199008 009 999 999 03
120400 2358N 06940W 6435 03850 0075 +069 -003 203006 007 999 999 03
120430 2359N 06942W 6436 03848 0075 +069 -003 186005 005 999 999 03
120500 2400N 06944W 6435 03848 0071 +071 -007 173004 005 999 999 03
120530 2401N 06946W 6435 03850 0069 +072 -008 183004 004 999 999 03
120600 2403N 06948W 6436 03846 0063 +075 -008 174004 005 999 999 03
120630 2404N 06950W 6437 03845 0061 +076 -009 162004 005 999 999 03
120700 2405N 06952W 6433 03850 0058 +077 -010 127004 004 004 000 03

[x-y-no]

Wind at buoy 41046 is now NW at 9.7 knots

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[HURAKAN]

[Jevo]

I bet you they name it at the 5 am. Cause of it being so close in time to where it COULD hit land some where.

I loveeee when bets are made..... I fixed ya up some breakfast

[storms NC]

Yep, got data and visibles. This is quicker that what I was thinking based on last nights data, expected to see a defined center by this afternoon. The QS and visibles are in agreement. west winds found by recon. lopsided and sheared, this is a TS (Danny)

Don't really like where it is and the synoptic set up. FL to OBX likely affected if it avoids poofagensis. The islands are highly likely to see some thing from this. I expect a good solution on the models by this evening. That ULL is the kicker though.

True but after it moves away from the ULL it should spin up nicely. Think that from SC to Va is a good guess. But all depents on how far west it goes. this is going to be the key.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 261217
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 25 20090826
120730 2406N 06954W 6435 03846 0057 +079 -012 123004 004 999 999 03
120800 2408N 06956W 6435 03846 0057 +079 -012 116004 004 999 999 03
120830 2409N 06958W 6435 03846 0059 +078 -013 107005 005 999 999 03
120900 2410N 07000W 6436 03845 0058 +078 -011 106005 006 999 999 03
120930 2412N 07002W 6436 03846 0057 +079 -012 105005 005 999 999 03
121000 2413N 07004W 6435 03846 0056 +079 -012 092004 004 999 999 03
121030 2414N 07006W 6435 03846 0059 +077 -002 076005 005 999 999 03
121100 2415N 07008W 6436 03845 0058 +077 +011 068006 007 999 999 03
121130 2417N 07010W 6436 03846 0058 +077 +014 063004 005 999 999 03
121200 2418N 07012W 6435 03847 0058 +078 +002 053006 007 005 000 03
121230 2419N 07014W 6435 03848 0055 +081 -003 045006 007 999 999 03
121300 2420N 07015W 6436 03847 0055 +081 +001 042006 007 999 999 03
121330 2422N 07017W 6437 03845 0061 +077 +001 040007 007 999 999 03
121400 2423N 07019W 6435 03847 0066 +074 +000 046008 008 999 999 03
121430 2424N 07021W 6436 03849 0067 +073 +010 047008 008 999 999 03
121500 2426N 07023W 6436 03849 0069 +071 +017 054008 009 999 999 03
121530 2427N 07025W 6434 03851 0070 +072 -009 059006 007 999 999 03
121600 2428N 07027W 6437 03847 0072 +073 -031 066006 006 999 999 03
121630 2429N 07029W 6437 03847 0071 +074 -032 068007 008 999 999 03
121700 2431N 07031W 6435 03847 0068 +074 -028 067007 007 999 999 03

[storms NC]

I bet you they name it at the 5 am. Cause of it being so close in time to where it COULD hit land some where.

I loveeee when bets are made..... I fixed ya up some breakfast

Yeah I did.

[x-y-no]

SW (220 deg) at 22 knots:

Code: Select all

UZNT13 KWBC 261205
XXAA  76127 99235 70690 07939 99011 26225 22022 00093 25422 21522
92776 20605 20023 85505 17007 20023 70146 09850 21013 88999 77999
31313 09608 81154
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 OB 09
62626 REL 2353N06903W 115410 SPG 2356N06901W 115929 WL150 21522 0
85 DLM WND 21018 010644 MBL WND 21021=
XXBB  76128 99235 70690 07939 00011 26225 11001 25423 22854 17208
33826 16003 44773 14444 55718 10836 66691 09257 77660 07030 88643
06446
21212 00011 22022 11946 20520 22907 20024 33838 20021 44760 23015
55724 21014 66711 22513 77697 21013 88678 21513 99669 19012 11652
21015 22649 18015 33646 13520 44644 15016 55643 20015
31313 09608 81154
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 OB 09
62626 REL 2353N06903W 115410 SPG 2356N06901W 115929 WL150 21522 0
85 DLM WND 21018 010644 MBL WND 21021=