ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[deltadog03]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[Blown Away]

thats the UL near 68W

maybe this is going to try and form directly under the UL

The spin I see near 23N / 68W I think is the remanent circulation from the big ULL, but since about 3pm convection has been pulsing around this circulation. Is it possible this circulation has come down to the surface?

[boca]

The vorticity is tightening up but I see the movement more NW than WNW towards the Carolina's on sat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

Ok well this is the area to continue to watch..

drew lines where i could resolve some curved low level cloud lines

[clfenwi]

GFS at 72h, before starting to zip the storm to the northeast:


Complete loop

(edited to include link to loop)

[Derek Ortt]

looks MUCH weaker this run. Not even a TC

[Blown Away]

Ok well this is the area to continue to watch..

drew lines where i could resolve some curved low level cloud lines

That is what I have been watching all day. Boca how do you get NW movement,
IMO maybe just N of due W movement rate now.

[Aric Dunn]

looks MUCH weaker this run. Not even a TC

... well since when did paying attention to the gfs and intensity ever help..
the gfs is very well known for showing weak to non existent system even though they are hurricanes..

[boca]

Ok well this is the area to continue to watch..

drew lines where i could resolve some curved low level cloud lines

That is what I have been watching all day. Boca how do you get NW movement,
IMO maybe just N of due W movement rate now.

Blown_away you are right. It does look N of due west.Check out this satelite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Blown Away]

If our little vorticy becomes the circulation center it's going to blow the latest model runs. This vorticy is about to cross 70W at about 23N. Most of the models had 92L crossing 70W at about 26N

[Blown Away]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

What do you think Deltadog, are we gonna get some good surf and maybe some nice TS gusts here in Martin County??

[Bocadude85]

So what does everyone think the closest approach to south florida will be? about 200 miles?

[Aric Dunn]

So what does everyone think the closest approach to south florida will be? about 200 miles?

near landfall could still happen.. cant rule anything out yet

[Aric Dunn]

If our little vorticy becomes the circulation center it's going to blow the latest model runs. This vorticy is about to cross 70W at about 23N. Most of the models had 92L crossing 70W at about 26N

not the euro or cmc.. its been calling for this motion the whole time..

[Blown Away]

Look at the IR wide view, is their really any doubt where the circulation center is? It seems to be getting more consolidated by the hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Evil Jeremy]

So what does everyone think the closest approach to south florida will be? about 200 miles?

We should know in a week from now after the storm is already gone lol. Really though, it could come closer than 200 miles from us, time will tell.

[Bocadude85]

So what does everyone think the closest approach to south florida will be? about 200 miles?

near landfall could still happen.. cant rule anything out yet

Hmm I thought everyone was so confident this afternoon that this would come no where near South Florida?

[Evil Jeremy]

So what does everyone think the closest approach to south florida will be? about 200 miles?

near landfall could still happen.. cant rule anything out yet

Hmm I thought everyone was so confident this afternoon that this would come no where near South Florida?

Things change in the tropics lol.

[boca]

We still have that trough over the GOM thru Central Florida and up towards the east coast by the Carolina's.Does that weaken and split and allow 92L to continue westward or will it cause 92L to pull a Floyd of 99.

[deltadog03]

First rough call....

***** HAVE TO GET A CENTER, TO FEEL MORE CONFIDENT***