ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[vacanechaser]

sorry but that is the upper low and the wave axis is passing underneath at the moment ... few possibilities ..
1. it move past it onto a better environment which will put in in the bahamas tomorrow afternoon ..
2. it moves with the ull and has a hard time developing till the ull weakens by which time a trough maybe coming by this weekend turning it NW and NNW

currently its still moving at around 20 to 25 mph and my estimate of the ull is 15 to 20 mph ..
only time will tell for sure but the euro solution seems to be holding.

10-4... its just a mess right now... really have not had time to look at it much today.. but it does appear that some sort of spin is off to the nw of the cloud pattern... just along the northwestern edge... maybe it is just my eyes!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Weatherfreak000]

This thing is going to get much too close to not effect SE Florida...the movement across the Atlantic has been much faster than I expected and from the looks of things...apparently some pro mets that previously were discounting the system are not see-sawing on the topic. I would have to say one thing is always an issue...the miscalculation of ridging...el Nino season or not.

[jinftl]

One thing about this system....it is almost in the backyard of the u.s....not like it just rolled off of africa and has days of open ocean to traverse.

This thing is going to get much too close to not effect SE Florida...the movement across the Atlantic has been much faster than I expected and from the looks of things...apparently some pro mets that previously were discounting the system are not see-sawing on the topic. I would have to say one thing is always an issue...the miscalculation of ridging...el Nino season or not.

[Blown Away]

25/2345 UTC 22.5N 67.1W T1.5/1.5 92L
25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L

Before the latest approximate 150 mile circulation center relocation to the SW, the TPC had 92L's closest point to SFL at about 150 miles to the east. I will be interested to see the next TPC update and how they factor the circulation center relocation.

[storms NC]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

IMO, it appears the broad circulation is starting to tighten up. Look at the wide view and we can see moisture being pulled into the broad circulation from Hispaniola. Convection popping along the SE side of the circulation for the first time. West side of the broad circulation is hitting 70W.

yep..i saw someone ask what that was a few posts back... i looked at the wide atlantic view, water vapor that is, and it would appear that the ull is off to the nw of the system... this very well could be the developing low level center.. only time would tell of course...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

That would be me. I didn't know if I was seeing things. I didn't want to make a fool of myself. But I do any hows. 53 and still learning.

Oh it you look here at this loop you can see that the ULL has been moving more to the west in the last few frames. And 92L is moveing to the WNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Blown Away]

Not surprised, if that center relocation to the SW stands, we have to think 92L will get a little closer to SFL and may make it more difficult to miss the Carolinas!!!

[storms NC]

More of a floyd track If it makes it to TS or Hurricane.JMO

[wxman57]

One more map before bed. I cannot see any "wrapping up" evident on surface obs. The crosshairs represent the 00Z model initialization point. I see a clear wave axis through that point, but nothing more. Convection is far too weak and disorganized tonight (so far). Also, note how high the pressures are in the area.

For this to develop, it'll have to maintain a solid area of storms. That'll generate a low pressure area and inflow, then rotation. Maybe by tomorrow afternoon. But not tonight.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow will be another day. Likely, an interesting one!

[storms NC]

I bet you they name it at the 5 am. Cause of it being so close in time to where it COULD hit land some where.

[brunota2003]

Not without a definite closed LLC.

[jlauderdal]

I bet you they name it at the 5 am. Cause of it being so close in time to where it COULD hit land some where.

only if they are pretty damn sure of a surface circulation, proximity to land has nothing to do with it, no center no name

[Derek Ortt]

if you want to be entertained, have a look at the HWRF initialization

[storms NC]

They have done it before. There has been some that should not have been named at all.

[storms NC]

Not tonight going to bed. Have gran kids at 6 am. Have fun all.

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA was cancelled due to range issues. May have a flight at 0800 UTC

[Blown Away]

if you want to be entertained, have a look at the HWRF initialization

Not sure what you are getting at?

[clfenwi]

if you want to be entertained, have a look at the HWRF initialization

Not sure what you are getting at?

Inner core depiction?

[HurricaneJoe22]

::::cough:::: Grace 2003 ::::cough::::

[pojo]

likely won't go. They do not usually do low level invests at night

We don't like to fly LLI's at night... it strictly for safety reasons and the fact that we cannot see the wave action to catch the wind directions.