ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Aric Dunn]

More SE to ESE winds.

URNT15 KNHC 252100
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 14 20090825
205030 2324N 06539W 9770 00294 0106 +230 +168 154023 024 022 004 00
205100 2325N 06538W 9770 00295 0106 +230 +169 152025 025 022 005 00
205130 2326N 06537W 9768 00297 0106 +231 +169 153024 025 025 003 00
205200 2327N 06535W 9770 00296 0106 +235 +169 148025 025 024 005 00
205230 2329N 06534W 9771 00295 0107 +233 +169 146026 026 023 006 00
205300 2330N 06533W 9771 00297 0109 +232 +170 144026 027 026 005 00
205330 2331N 06532W 9770 00298 0110 +234 +170 139026 026 024 006 00
205400 2332N 06531W 9769 00301 0111 +235 +171 136026 027 024 006 00
205430 2334N 06530W 9772 00299 0111 +235 +172 137026 027 027 004 00
205500 2335N 06529W 9768 00302 0112 +235 +172 134027 028 026 006 00
205530 2336N 06528W 9770 00300 0112 +235 +173 132029 029 030 007 00
205600 2338N 06527W 9771 00301 0115 +219 +173 111035 038 039 006 00
205630 2339N 06526W 9769 00302 0114 +221 +172 111040 041 041 007 00
205700 2340N 06525W 9772 00300 0114 +225 +170 116037 037 040 005 00
205730 2341N 06524W 9771 00302 0116 +224 +168 111039 040 041 003 00
205800 2342N 06524W 9772 00301 0117 +220 +167 107041 042 040 003 00
205830 2344N 06523W 9768 00305 0117 +222 +166 110041 041 044 000 00
205900 2345N 06522W 9771 00303 0118 +222 +165 107043 045 042 006 00
205930 2346N 06521W 9776 00300 0118 +219 +165 103047 048 044 005 00
210000 2347N 06520W 9767 00308 0120 +217 +164 106046 047 044 004 00

well there are TS force winds .. just need a closed surface.. lol

[RL3AO]

[gatorcane]

location of vorts... they are rotating around a broad area it seems.. consolidation must occur to see any major development..

seems like the yellow circle has a circulation also in the upper-levels. Could it work down to the surface? If so, that would change things with the track.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the wide view IR, it almost appears the convection is wrapped around the weakening ULL circulation. This is a very interesting invest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

the yellow center has a very very very small surface circulation (I had to really blow up 1km visible imagery to see it). However, it is likely a local eddy due to the convection and not a TC

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 252110
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 15 20090825
210030 2348N 06519W 9767 00308 0121 +216 +164 107048 050 045 004 00
210100 2349N 06518W 9772 00305 0121 +216 +164 107049 051 045 005 00
210130 2350N 06518W 9771 00305 0121 +215 +163 109051 052 048 005 00
210200 2352N 06517W 9764 00315 0122 +214 +162 110050 053 050 002 00
210230 2353N 06516W 9773 00304 0122 +215 +162 108053 054 049 007 00
210300 2354N 06515W 9774 00303 0121 +213 +161 105053 054 049 006 00
210330 2355N 06514W 9772 00306 0122 +213 +161 104054 054 050 002 00
210400 2356N 06513W 9769 00310 0123 +213 +160 099054 056 049 005 00
210430 2357N 06513W 9769 00308 0123 +214 +159 098056 058 050 006 00
210500 2358N 06512W 9769 00311 0123 +214 +158 097056 056 051 004 00
210530 2359N 06511W 9770 00309 0124 +213 +157 095056 057 047 008 00
210600 2400N 06510W 9766 00311 0125 +211 +157 094052 054 047 006 00
210630 2401N 06509W 9778 00303 0126 +211 +156 095058 060 050 007 00
210700 2402N 06509W 9763 00317 0126 +211 +154 094054 055 050 007 00
210730 2403N 06508W 9774 00306 0127 +209 +154 094054 056 052 007 00
210800 2404N 06507W 9771 00310 0129 +207 +153 096058 059 052 007 00
210830 2405N 06506W 9769 00314 0130 +206 +152 095056 058 053 007 00
210900 2406N 06505W 9776 00310 0131 +208 +150 097057 059 053 007 00
210930 2407N 06504W 9771 00313 0131 +205 +149 097055 056 052 002 00
211000 2408N 06503W 9768 00318 0132 +205 +148 097058 059 050 005 00


60 kt wind

[Derek Ortt]

note... the structure may not be that dissimilar from Andrew based upon the recon reports (and even the satellite is similar)

[otowntiger]

Euro 12z:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082512!!/

I know this is potential "Danny's" model thread but Erica stands out like a sore thumb in this run with a strong high building in..

Yes that track looks interesting. Will be watching.

I dunno. With that high latitude and the wnw movement of that potential 'erica' I see it doing another classic recurve. Yes the Bermuda high does appear to be stronger than it is now, but there is still a weakness east of the east coast. I think she finds it.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm... thats interesting 60kts..

[cycloneye]

60 kt wind found.

[otowntiger]

60 kt wind found.

I assume flight level? Which translates to something lower at the surface, right?

[Derek Ortt]

that mans we have a 45-50KT open wave... seems similar to Andrew

[sevenleft]

SFMR picked up 53 knot surface winds.

[otowntiger]

that mans we have a 45-50KT open wave... seems similar to Andrew

In what way? Please elaborate. Is it because Andrew was a disorganized open wave with high winds and no circulation just prior to being named? Or, dare I ask are there other similarities?

[Aric Dunn]

SFMR picked up 53 knot surface winds.

thats actually pretty significant

[Lowpressure]

I call 60kts at flight level a surprise from recon.

[cycloneye]

East winds in this set with winds in the 50kts range.

URNT15 KNHC 252120
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 16 20090825
211030 2409N 06502W 9772 00315 0131 +208 +147 097056 058 051 005 00
211100 2410N 06501W 9769 00316 0133 +209 +147 096057 058 055 001 00
211130 2410N 06500W 9770 00316 0134 +209 +148 095056 057 051 004 03
211200 2412N 06500W 9770 00318 0134 +209 +149 094054 058 047 006 03
211230 2413N 06459W 9775 00313 0135 +209 +150 095058 058 049 002 00
211300 2414N 06459W 9768 00320 0135 +209 +151 095056 058 048 004 00
211330 2415N 06458W 9769 00321 0136 +209 +151 095054 057 045 005 00
211400 2417N 06458W 9776 00316 0138 +209 +151 095053 056 044 005 00
211430 2418N 06457W 9779 00313 0138 +209 +152 096054 057 047 004 00
211500 2419N 06457W 9772 00318 0139 +210 +152 096055 058 043 007 00
211530 2421N 06456W 9769 00324 0140 +210 +152 095052 054 044 005 00
211600 2422N 06456W 9770 00323 0141 +210 +152 094052 054 044 004 00
211630 2423N 06455W 9774 00322 0142 +210 +152 095051 054 046 005 00
211700 2425N 06455W 9776 00322 0145 +206 +152 097051 055 046 005 00
211730 2426N 06454W 9764 00332 0146 +209 +151 098050 053 046 006 00
211800 2427N 06454W 9777 00322 0147 +212 +151 100050 052 045 008 00
211830 2429N 06453W 9778 00320 0146 +213 +151 099052 053 045 006 03
211900 2430N 06452W 9767 00329 0144 +212 +151 098053 055 047 005 03
211930 2430N 06451W 9771 00326 0145 +211 +152 098053 055 048 007 00
212000 2430N 06450W 9763 00333 0146 +208 +152 097051 052 049 006 00

[Blown Away]

Looks like the convection is wrapping around a broad area near 23.7N / 67 W.

[Bocadude85]

The weakness is filling in at the end of the run...

[RattleMan]

that mans we have a 45-50KT open wave... seems similar to Andrew

In what way? Please elaborate. Is it because Andrew was a disorganized open wave with high winds and no circulation just prior to being named? Or, dare I ask are there other similarities?

I think he means on August 19 when Andrew had begun to degenerate so much that recon couldn't close a good center.