ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[wxman57]

Something I noticed on the satellite and wanted to ask the Pro Mets about

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/8779/sat1r.jpg

The part I circled, it seems like the "tail" of the convection is being closed up. Do you think there is something going around there in terms of anything getting together?

No, I'd look farther northwest for a center to form.

[wxman57]

My best "guess" you could say.

Can't reach that image web site.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT DANGER POSSIBLY BECOMING HIGH AGAIN THU...





THU-FRI...MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN INCIPIENT TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING
STAGES...THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NHC/HPC COORDINATED FORECAST POINTS MOVE
THE CENTER NO FARTHER WEST THAN 76W. HENCE WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PERIPHERAL OUTER SUBSIDENCE IF IT
DEVELOPS SUFFICIENTLY.






Marine Forecast:


THU-FRI...LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE INCIPIENT TROPICAL SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. HAVE
TRENDED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 10-15 KNOTS THU...THEN
DECREASING FRI. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME NORTHEAST-EAST SWELL BUT
THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS AND ITS EXACT
TRACK. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SEA HEIGHTS AT 6 FEET OR LOWER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY

[vacanechaser]

12z UKMET

Says hello to outerbanks.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 23.1N 68.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2009 23.1N 68.0W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2009 24.2N 71.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2009 25.7N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2009 27.0N 76.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2009 28.2N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2009 31.7N 76.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.08.2009 34.9N 76.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 39.3N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 43.8N 69.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 47.4N 63.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2009 48.9N 55.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

hmmm... did i just look at the wrong 12z run ..

well it did initialize farther west which makes sense .. as that is where it is likely to close a low off..

yeah mine was old..

hmm

tighten up..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Blown Away]

Interesting that 12Z CMC develops low pressure at around 22N-67W in 12 hours (8 PM position).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I think the current position is near 23N / 68W??? Maybe the CMC is to far E w/ their initial position??

[hurricanetrack]

Here it is on a map:

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/jpegs/ukmet8_25_09.jpg

[deltadog03]

sorry wxman....Tried it again. I guess imageshack is having prollems.

I just re-posted the pic.

[vacanechaser]

Here it is on a map:

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/jpegs/ukmet8_25_09.jpg

that helps... lol thanx



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that 12Z CMC develops low pressure at around 22N-67W in 12 hours (8 PM position).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I think the current position is near 23N / 68W??? Maybe the CMC is to far E w/ their initial position??

to far east....?

actually 68 west looks good.. development will probably be around 70 west or farther since its still moving pretty quickly.. anything above 23 N is just to far north right now.. nothing up there and its not moving NW.

[hurricanetrack]

Love the Google for that. Really helps to show the northward run along the coast that this COULD end up doing. Really, really interested in seeing the ECMWF now. Might have to get Watkins right back up here again huh?

Anyone want to guess what "intense" means? Does that signify a certain category? I always wondered what those labels meant specifically.

[deltadog03]

"sounds" like euro is pretty much the same as last couple of runs.

[Aric Dunn]

"sounds" like euro is pretty much the same as last couple of runs.

where is it? 12z

link?

[CrazyC83]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT
325 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS
IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Interesting wording there.

Could this become Danny???????

QuikSCAT last night seemed to think this was a strong TS-force system (just no LLC).

[deltadog03]

don't have map yet...just hearing it from others who have paid vendor sites that update quicker. sounds like its a cross btwn cmc and ukie.

[Aric Dunn]

don't have map yet...just hearing it from others who have paid vendor sites that update quicker. sounds like its a cross btwn cmc and ukie.

oh ok.. thanks

[canes04]

I'll take a shot and go with with 22.2 and 66.5
See some turning there in the last few images.

This could go further west than the models indicate.
The high may build in off the east coast and trap this system.

[shortwave]

Do notice the 'spin' by the western cluster of storms. whole area still seems embedded within that upper low.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... st_full+12

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak T numbers.

25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Aric Dunn]

SSD dvorak T numbers.

25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic

probably too far east.. but will see when recon gets out there.. I imagine it will close off near 67 to 68 west...

[deltadog03]

Aric, the sat pic just updated and storms are still firing nicely about where we have the circle. Also, more are gathering near there. Its almost where the 12z ukie and cmc have the "center".