ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[srainhoutx]

[OuterBanker]

I think I will wait for recon. Not sure they will find a center. Who knows maybe the GFS is right this time, but they have a bad reputation until a center has actually formed. It just doesn't initialize that well until a center is found. Of note, other than the CMC no model thinks this will be very strong. Even the Euro only has a 1010 low off SC. But before I throw out the CMC I am reminded of Alex in 04. He went from a 58 mph ts to a 100 mph cat 2 in 24 hrs (8/1/04 11:00 am to 8/2/04 11:am). If this does wind up off the SC coast conditions are ripe for development.

[Aric Dunn]

I would pay more attention to this area..

[Jevo]

I meant don't always hug the EURO. While it is the best over the course of an entire season, that still means individual forecasts can be poor

need to hug the models that closest match the synoptics

Awwww everyone enjoys a hug from time to time..

Personally I enjoy reading all of the mets and amateurs opinions during the invest time when there is nothing concrete. It allows a little free thought and synoptical analysis.. The test of a weater nerd's mettle IMO.

[maxx9512]

I have an amatuer question. I was looking at the gfs map animation (maybe I am reading it wrong) but I see 92L moving into the high where the pressure is about the 1016 range. I thought the high would keep it on a more westerly path. Is it pushing through or is the high weakining in this area thus allowining the low to move in this direction? Or is it I am seeing the map incorrectly or am I way off base here?

[Frank2]

It appears to be more of a marine issue than anything else, since there appears to be too much of a ULL/trough combimation to it's west and northwest to make it a current threat to the southeast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just my own opinion...

[deltadog03]

GFS is a little further SW of the 00z run, but I think its still having some issues with convective feedback. I just can't see this thing that far NE and looking that good in 12-18 hours.

[deltadog03]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_048.jpg

[boca]

On the far SW part of the convection cloud mass at 23n and 67.5w that looks like it has inflow and rotation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

The area closer to 22N/64W catches my eye. Nothing at the surface yet, though.

Maybe even 23.5 N 64 W to my untrained eye

[MWatkins]

It appears to be more of a marine issue than anything else, since there appears to be too much of a ULL/trough combimation to it's west and northwest to make it a current threat to the southeast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just my own opinion...

I'm not a Mod, but I don't know what this has to do with the models. I thought the model thread was for model discussion, and the other generic thread was for opinions. I think this kind of post belongs over there IMHO.

Now, back to the topic at hand:

Looks like the GFS is right on the 0Z solution through 84 hours where it starts the recurvature. It seems to be overdoing the influence of the old low over the SE and breaking down the Atlantic ridge a little more than the Euro. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ridge holds, I do think it has a better handle on this kind of interaction between features.

MW

[boca]

It's funny that were playing darts on the center until it actually forms. I'm guilty as well

[deltadog03]

HMMM good old crazy uncle (CMC) might be heading towards FL??

[Jevo]

It appears to be more of a marine issue than anything else, since there appears to be too much of a ULL/trough combimation to it's west and northwest to make it a current threat to the southeast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just my own opinion...

I'm not a Mod, but I don't know what this has to do with the models. I thought the model thread was for model discussion, and the other generic thread was for opinions. I think this kind of post belongs over there IMHO.

Now, back to the topic at hand:

Looks like the GFS is right on the 0Z solution through 84 hours where it starts the recurvature. It seems to be overdoing the influence of the old low over the SE and breaking down the Atlantic ridge a little more than the Euro. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ridge holds, I do think it has a better handle on this kind of interaction between features.

MW

Hey Mike great to see ya posting on 92L. Any ideas on the if the models are picking up the current GUTT.. Looks like it may be wreaking havoc on the 200Mb layer

[ronjon]

GFS is a little further SW of the 00z run, but I think its still having some issues with convective feedback. I just can't see this thing that far NE and looking that good in 12-18 hours.

yeah, DD, I looked at the 500 mb pattern from GFS and two things stand out: the first is a rather odd looking deepening of the trough in the mid-atlantic after the cutoff low has separated. In other words, it's dipping the main jet alot further south off the east coast than the Euro/CMC. This causes the GFS low to track NW from a position near 21N-61W. In the Euro, after the ULL cuts off and retrogrades, heights rise off the east coast - thus steering the system more W-NW rather than NW like the GFS, and at a starting point lower in latitude.

[RevDodd]

It's funny that were playing darts on the center until it actually forms. I'm guilty as well

Hee-hee! Looking at the latest floater, there are 2-3 spot that could be argued as the "emerging center."

Maybe we can have a contest: person closest to the center found by recon is the winner.

I'll take 22.5 N 68 W.
Why the heck not?

[btangy]

My eye is also focused on the area Jeff Masters pointed to, but I also notice a huge outflow boundary to the SE (that he also marked) propagating quickly toward the W forming a mesoscale cold front with broken convection firing along it like a squall line. The cold pool associated with this continues to grow and surge toward the W. At this rate it's going to cut off the southerly inflow to the convection to the N and stop any surface low from developing there. The convection may then refire to the S along this outflow boundary so it's very hard to tell at this point in time where the surface low is going to establish itself.

[deltadog03]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 78_100.gif

CMC gets pretty close to coast of florida then starts to turn north.

[artist]

My eye is also focused on the area Jeff Masters pointed to, but I also notice a huge outflow boundary to the SE (that he also marked) propagating quickly toward the W forming a mesoscale cold front with broken convection firing along it like a squall line. The cold pool associated with this continues to grow and surge toward the W. At this rate it's going to cut off the southerly inflow to the convection to the N and stop any surface low from developing there. The convection may then refire to the S along this outflow boundary so it's very hard to tell at this point in time where the surface low is going to establish itself.

thanks for your input. Enjoyed reading your biography by the way.

[RL3AO]

I have an amatuer question. I was looking at the gfs map animation (maybe I am reading it wrong) but I see 92L moving into the high where the pressure is about the 1016 range. I thought the high would keep it on a more westerly path. Is it pushing through or is the high weakining in this area thus allowining the low to move in this direction? Or is it I am seeing the map incorrectly or am I way off base here?

Remember there is a lot more to the atmosphere than just the surface. What steers the storms are the upper-level winds.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=