ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#341 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:36 am

Image
0 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

#342 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:57 am

I think I will wait for recon. Not sure they will find a center. Who knows maybe the GFS is right this time, but they have a bad reputation until a center has actually formed. It just doesn't initialize that well until a center is found. Of note, other than the CMC no model thinks this will be very strong. Even the Euro only has a 1010 low off SC. But before I throw out the CMC I am reminded of Alex in 04. He went from a 58 mph ts to a 100 mph cat 2 in 24 hrs (8/1/04 11:00 am to 8/2/04 11:am). If this does wind up off the SC coast conditions are ripe for development.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#343 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:58 am

I would pay more attention to this area..
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re:

#344 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:59 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I meant don't always hug the EURO. While it is the best over the course of an entire season, that still means individual forecasts can be poor

need to hug the models that closest match the synoptics


Awwww everyone enjoys a hug from time to time..

Personally I enjoy reading all of the mets and amateurs opinions during the invest time when there is nothing concrete. It allows a little free thought and synoptical analysis.. The test of a weater nerd's mettle IMO.
0 likes   

maxx9512
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Age: 65
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 7:55 pm
Location: Cape Coral, Fl.

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#345 Postby maxx9512 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:09 am

I have an amatuer question. I was looking at the gfs map animation (maybe I am reading it wrong) but I see 92L moving into the high where the pressure is about the 1016 range. I thought the high would keep it on a more westerly path. Is it pushing through or is the high weakining in this area thus allowining the low to move in this direction? Or is it I am seeing the map incorrectly or am I way off base here?
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#346 Postby Frank2 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:11 am

It appears to be more of a marine issue than anything else, since there appears to be too much of a ULL/trough combimation to it's west and northwest to make it a current threat to the southeast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just my own opinion...
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#347 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:15 am

GFS is a little further SW of the 00z run, but I think its still having some issues with convective feedback. I just can't see this thing that far NE and looking that good in 12-18 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#348 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:18 am

0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#349 Postby boca » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:20 am

On the far SW part of the convection cloud mass at 23n and 67.5w that looks like it has inflow and rotation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#350 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:20 am

wxman57 wrote:The area closer to 22N/64W catches my eye. Nothing at the surface yet, though.

Maybe even 23.5 N 64 W to my untrained eye
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#351 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:21 am

Frank2 wrote:It appears to be more of a marine issue than anything else, since there appears to be too much of a ULL/trough combimation to it's west and northwest to make it a current threat to the southeast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just my own opinion...


I'm not a Mod, but I don't know what this has to do with the models. I thought the model thread was for model discussion, and the other generic thread was for opinions. I think this kind of post belongs over there IMHO.

Now, back to the topic at hand:

Looks like the GFS is right on the 0Z solution through 84 hours where it starts the recurvature. It seems to be overdoing the influence of the old low over the SE and breaking down the Atlantic ridge a little more than the Euro. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ridge holds, I do think it has a better handle on this kind of interaction between features.

MW
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#352 Postby boca » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:24 am

It's funny that were playing darts on the center until it actually forms. I'm guilty as well :uarrow:
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#353 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:26 am

HMMM good old crazy uncle (CMC) might be heading towards FL??

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#354 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:30 am

MWatkins wrote:
Frank2 wrote:It appears to be more of a marine issue than anything else, since there appears to be too much of a ULL/trough combimation to it's west and northwest to make it a current threat to the southeast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just my own opinion...


I'm not a Mod, but I don't know what this has to do with the models. I thought the model thread was for model discussion, and the other generic thread was for opinions. I think this kind of post belongs over there IMHO.

Now, back to the topic at hand:

Looks like the GFS is right on the 0Z solution through 84 hours where it starts the recurvature. It seems to be overdoing the influence of the old low over the SE and breaking down the Atlantic ridge a little more than the Euro. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ridge holds, I do think it has a better handle on this kind of interaction between features.

MW


Hey Mike great to see ya posting on 92L. Any ideas on the if the models are picking up the current GUTT.. Looks like it may be wreaking havoc on the 200Mb layer :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re:

#355 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:34 am

deltadog03 wrote:GFS is a little further SW of the 00z run, but I think its still having some issues with convective feedback. I just can't see this thing that far NE and looking that good in 12-18 hours.


yeah, DD, I looked at the 500 mb pattern from GFS and two things stand out: the first is a rather odd looking deepening of the trough in the mid-atlantic after the cutoff low has separated. In other words, it's dipping the main jet alot further south off the east coast than the Euro/CMC. This causes the GFS low to track NW from a position near 21N-61W. In the Euro, after the ULL cuts off and retrogrades, heights rise off the east coast - thus steering the system more W-NW rather than NW like the GFS, and at a starting point lower in latitude.
0 likes   

User avatar
RevDodd
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:40 am
Location: Fayetteville, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#356 Postby RevDodd » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:35 am

boca wrote:It's funny that were playing darts on the center until it actually forms. I'm guilty as well :uarrow:


:lol: Hee-hee! Looking at the latest floater, there are 2-3 spot that could be argued as the "emerging center."

Maybe we can have a contest: person closest to the center found by recon is the winner.

I'll take 22.5 N 68 W.
Why the heck not?
0 likes   

User avatar
btangy
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 758
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:06 pm
Location: Boulder, CO
Contact:

#357 Postby btangy » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:38 am

My eye is also focused on the area Jeff Masters pointed to, but I also notice a huge outflow boundary to the SE (that he also marked) propagating quickly toward the W forming a mesoscale cold front with broken convection firing along it like a squall line. The cold pool associated with this continues to grow and surge toward the W. At this rate it's going to cut off the southerly inflow to the convection to the N and stop any surface low from developing there. The convection may then refire to the S along this outflow boundary so it's very hard to tell at this point in time where the surface low is going to establish itself.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#358 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:39 am

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 78_100.gif

CMC gets pretty close to coast of florida then starts to turn north.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re:

#359 Postby artist » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:42 am

btangy wrote:My eye is also focused on the area Jeff Masters pointed to, but I also notice a huge outflow boundary to the SE (that he also marked) propagating quickly toward the W forming a mesoscale cold front with broken convection firing along it like a squall line. The cold pool associated with this continues to grow and surge toward the W. At this rate it's going to cut off the southerly inflow to the convection to the N and stop any surface low from developing there. The convection may then refire to the S along this outflow boundary so it's very hard to tell at this point in time where the surface low is going to establish itself.

thanks for your input. Enjoyed reading your biography by the way.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#360 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:51 am

maxx9512 wrote:I have an amatuer question. I was looking at the gfs map animation (maybe I am reading it wrong) but I see 92L moving into the high where the pressure is about the 1016 range. I thought the high would keep it on a more westerly path. Is it pushing through or is the high weakining in this area thus allowining the low to move in this direction? Or is it I am seeing the map incorrectly or am I way off base here?


Remember there is a lot more to the atmosphere than just the surface. What steers the storms are the upper-level winds.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests