Strong tropical wave ssw of Cape Verde islands

[jimvb]

2009 Aug 23 00Z GFS run shows the in-Africa storm developing across the Atlantic, into the GOM, and moving slowly towards the Louisiana coast. The 06Z GFS run shows the same storm, in some form, heading for Florida.

[cycloneye]

Is over Puerto Rico by September 1rst as a TD,but as we saw with Bill,those swings from one place to another were not good for the model projection and we know the end result of the models with Bill.

This morning the MLC is still there although convection is not plenty.

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters

Elsewhere in the tropics

We will also need to watch the region off the coast of Africa this week.

[Sanibel]

I'd bet against this wave. The tropics are dry. We're obviously back into the prevailing negativity.

If they say another MJO positive phase is due in September then that should be the next burst of storms.

[ROCK]

I'd bet against this wave. The tropics are dry. We're obviously back into the prevailing negativity.

If they say another MJO positive phase is due in September then that should be the next burst of storms.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

not completely dry.

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS for sunday shows the system but weaker than 24 hours ago when it had a hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

the hurricane looks to be the system near the Windwards. That low looks to be the one behind the phantomcane from yesterday

[KWT]

Quite possible, wouldn't be all that surprised if both are what you call phantomcanes, esp given there is no other main support it seems!

If the system near Windwards develops, then thats a big threat obviously down the line but thus far I would like more model support.

Still this is the classic time for systems to develop.

Also I will say in this thread as well...currently the MJO is NOT in a negative state, its not super positive either as the wave is weak and bordering on moving in but its far from negative thats for sure, that idea was spread by a very progressive model which seems to have been too fast on moving the MJO wave out.

[Frank2]

KWT,

Thanks for setting the record straight - guess we (I) was too eager to see the MJO turn to negative!

Still, that Jupiter-sized ULL is really putting a damper on anything for at least the next couple of days...

Frank2

[cycloneye]

I didnt know where to post the MJO forecast so I selected this one as it looks like some activity may form off Africa in the next few days.

MJO is currently in a semidry phase but it will turn humid or favorable by the last days of August going into the first days of September.

[KWT]

Yep UKMO also suggesting something may develop quite far south as does the ECM, though that is simply a hint and nothing more at this stage.

However the system doesn't appear to get much north on any runs through 144hrs so its deffo one to keep an eye on.

[cycloneye]

In case anyone is wondering,where is the wave GFS develops.Is one day away from emerging the west African coast.The MLC spin continues to be there,although convection is not plenty right now.

[jimvb]

The 2009 Aug 24 00Z GFS run shows the storm brushing against the Outer Banks and Nantucket. Like Bill, but closer to the coast. The 06Z run shows it running up to the Carolinas, then taking a sudden eastward turn out to sea. Looks like we may have another one coming. One thing unusual about this one is that it looks like a little "scooter" behind a bigger storm near Africa that overtakes it then develops.

[HURAKAN]

Wave close to the coast

[HURAKAN]

There is no question that we're close to the peak of the hurricane season

[cycloneye]

The first signs of next wave to emerge are pointed out at the ITCZ discussion.

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 16N27W 14N32W 7N47W
11N56W 11N59W 9N65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 13W-19W

[Sanibel]

Looks like we're not going to need to wait for the MJO...

[Tropics Guy]

The African wave train is in full gear now, we're bound to have another long tracker soon................

TG

[LaBreeze]

The year of recurvature.

[jinftl]

famous last words...i would begin boarding up immediately

The year of recurvature.