New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[Aric Dunn]

sweet thanks ..

[Sanibel]

Something looks like it is starting to come together. The ULL is winding down.

[carolina_73]

Convection seems to be slowly on the increase tonight. 1 or 2 days and the environment should be pretty good.

[Macrocane]

In about 72-96 hours, the environment will be more favorable, if the convection increases and persists than it will have a good chance of developing IMO.

[Blown Away]

Lots of convection, not sure anything can get going moving at 20-25mph?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Seems to be a good amount of wind shear (sw to ne orientation) going over the suspect area though. Cirrus clouds are streaming to the NE rapidly.

[DreamworksSKG]

The GGEM model suggests a East-Coaster 7-10 days down the road. Could be another one to watch for New England- Could be a hit this time too.


http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/greenstein/GGEM.htm

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 450
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[deltadog03]

Going to really have to watch this as it gets to the bahama's There will be an area of very good mass evacuation. AKA upper high aka divergance. Take a peek at the GFS during this time. Not the very good upper high and dual outflow channels ** IF something goes**

[carolina_73]

Still holding some nice convection and the ULL seems to be fading some as well.
URL=http://img401.imageshack.us/i/goes0745200923645dyv0.jpg/][/URL]

[KWT]

I agree this one does look to be interesting. Right now conditions are not that great but conditions are progged to improve later on around 72hrs as others have noted.

Convection really on the increase in terms of coverage, means nothing yet but once shear eases off which it should do eventually as the ULL moves along and this system gets stuck in slow steering currents things get interesting. Models really suggesting a possible east coast rider, been a while since we had one of those.

[carolina_73]

Yeah it has been awhile since we have seen a classic EC rider. I agree with weak steering currents could be a fun storm to track. I have a feeling if it does really start to rollup in the Bahamas E NC (Outerbanks) could be taking a direct hit if it takes the route some of the models were showing.

[KWT]

It'll also be interesting to see just how amplified the trough becomes, because if anything does form out there some models have it going NE once past brushing the outer banksm, whilst the ECM/CMC suggest the classic east coast rider. One to keep an eye thats for sure!

[cycloneye]

I can see invest 92L written over it sometime today.

[KWT]

Yeah more then likely though I'm not sure whether it has a circulation yet?
GFS still showing a very odd set-up where it develops a low pressure to the NE of where the system is forming on all the other models, we shall see.

[cycloneye]

The 00z Canadian continues to have a hurricane tracking as a East Coast rider.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

whoa .. im seeing some signs of a broad circulation ... yeah would not be surprised to see a invest today.. this may develop a little quicker than forecast..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BILL...WHICH LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
190 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Here's a morning analysis/satellite. Definitely just a wave axis now. Shear is high. Have to wait a few days for potential development: